Enduro/AM - The Weight Game

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Enduro/AM - The Weight Game
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flag badbadleroybrown
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 10:42 Quote
nubbs wrote:
Freaking cray out there in the pacific with all these container ships making that money. We're likely seeing Trek and sc increase prices for sure!

From talking to Trek they are cranking out frames and wheels but component makers cant keep up overseas. Jon B said shimano is by far the worst right now. Months out for build kits with frames/wheels waiting.

I cant get clutch grease, cable grease, 9100 metal brake pads, the list goes on.

Its like cars. So many little parts that have to come together to make a complete product to ship over here.

msr snowshoes couldnt get enough cold rolled steel for their snowshoe assemblies so we couldnt get many this winter. Nordic skis sold before we received them, climbing skins flying out the door to clueless backcountry skiers.

Its a party!

Shimano seems to be in a particularity weird shitshow with their supply... ordered a project one road bike a couple weeks ago, went through every option in dexter to get the shortest wait time possible; on the cranks, if I wanted a 52/36 Dura Ace power meter it jumped from the minimum 140 day wait to 230 days. But competitive cyclist got me a set in a week and change. Like oem is backordered to summer but retail is still rolling right along?
flag RMWB
O+
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 10:47 Quote
has anyone had experience with all these online shops that appear to be shipping OEM group sets direct from China? specifically bikecomponents ,ca Their FAQ seems upfront about what they are doing and that you will receive legit parts.
flag morewhitenoise
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 13:30 Quote
isaacschmidt wrote:
Can you name any other industry with an increase in sales/global revenue close to that which the outdoor industry as a whole has seen? XC ski/bikes/outdoor gear etc. People are getting outside(alone or in their respective pods).

Alcohol/beer is the only one that comes to mind(but a much shorter product lead time for beer). Tech likely saw an increase but was already further along in automation & scalability.

Almost hard to compare to literally anything else.

I can't even find an old rival 10spd shifter to patch my cx rig back together.

So this is what you'd think, but I disagree. Especially in the high end market where we 'enthusiasts' operate. Things should be bad, sure, but not this bad.

The volume of units, SKU's and order sizes for bikes are miniscule in comparison to things like construction, MFG and CPG industries. Not to mention the kind of materials required, which are relatively common (aluminium/steel).

A good example in europe is the DIY/home improvement market and construction. There was a national shortage of plaster (for rendering walls) and that is made here in the UK. This lasted about 2 months, but supply was soon restored to pre-covid levels. Theres also a major shortage in timber stock, with timber prices going through the roof for most common lumber sizes (many of which come from outside of europe). This lasted less than a month, with sales for DIY shops way higher than pre-covid levels and i can almost guarantee more people are doing home improvements than buying $5k+ MTBs.

What im getting at is that even with piss poor planning and no warning, 6 months to make a frame is unnaceptable. Even industries like CPU manufacturing that use rare earth metals in specialist facitilities are still able to launch products (samsung S21, Nvidea GPUs etc etc etc). Maybe working in ops transformation i just expected better from these companies...whatever happens i guess ill just have to buy something boutique.

EDIT: i dont think its unreasonable to expect to be back on a bike by summer!
flag mtbman1980
O+
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 13:48 Quote
morewhitenoise wrote:
isaacschmidt wrote:
Can you name any other industry with an increase in sales/global revenue close to that which the outdoor industry as a whole has seen? XC ski/bikes/outdoor gear etc. People are getting outside(alone or in their respective pods).

Alcohol/beer is the only one that comes to mind(but a much shorter product lead time for beer). Tech likely saw an increase but was already further along in automation & scalability.

Almost hard to compare to literally anything else.

I can't even find an old rival 10spd shifter to patch my cx rig back together.

So this is what you'd think, but I disagree. Especially in the high end market where we 'enthusiasts' operate. Things should be bad, sure, but not this bad.

The volume of units, SKU's and order sizes for bikes are miniscule in comparison to things like construction, MFG and CPG industries. Not to mention the kind of materials required, which are relatively common (aluminium/steel).

A good example in europe is the DIY/home improvement market and construction. There was a national shortage of plaster (for rendering walls) and that is made here in the UK. This lasted about 2 months, but supply was soon restored to pre-covid levels. Theres also a major shortage in timber stock, with timber prices going through the roof for most common lumber sizes (many of which come from outside of europe). This lasted less than a month, with sales for DIY shops way higher than pre-covid levels and i can almost guarantee more people are doing home improvements than buying $5k+ MTBs.

What im getting at is that even with piss poor planning and no warning, 6 months to make a frame is unnaceptable. Even industries like CPU manufacturing that use rare earth metals in specialist facitilities are still able to launch products (samsung S21, Nvidea GPUs etc etc etc). Maybe working in ops transformation i just expected better from these companies...whatever happens i guess ill just have to buy something boutique.

EDIT: i dont think its unreasonable to expect to be back on a bike by summer!

Yes the products you quoted are mostly raw materials that can be supplies with just a simple increase in production without additional components required.

Take Nvidia/AMD right now they are not necessarily being held up by production of gpu's but supply of gdr6 ram. They are able to launch products but not keep up with demand hence the large scale scalping and reselling that is happening.

I work in the Utility industry and we are having supply issues with several components because suppliers cannot keep up with demand.

It's more of an issue of building out capacity and only producing enough to cover current demands without carrying surplus stock. So when the demand increases you have no capacity to take up more load.
flag ajax-ripper
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 13:50 Quote
Lumber and plaster are tooled up to make the same product everyday indefinitely. Bike factories are only tooled up to build a specific frame for as long as it takes to build the quota then the production line is retooled for a different frame and so on. Unless the number of factories increases exponentially to allow constant production of every model of bike frame we will be kind of f*cked.
flag morewhitenoise
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 14:51 Quote
mtbman1980 wrote:
morewhitenoise wrote:
isaacschmidt wrote:
Can you name any other industry with an increase in sales/global revenue close to that which the outdoor industry as a whole has seen? XC ski/bikes/outdoor gear etc. People are getting outside(alone or in their respective pods).

Alcohol/beer is the only one that comes to mind(but a much shorter product lead time for beer). Tech likely saw an increase but was already further along in automation & scalability.

Almost hard to compare to literally anything else.

I can't even find an old rival 10spd shifter to patch my cx rig back together.

So this is what you'd think, but I disagree. Especially in the high end market where we 'enthusiasts' operate. Things should be bad, sure, but not this bad.

The volume of units, SKU's and order sizes for bikes are miniscule in comparison to things like construction, MFG and CPG industries. Not to mention the kind of materials required, which are relatively common (aluminium/steel).

A good example in europe is the DIY/home improvement market and construction. There was a national shortage of plaster (for rendering walls) and that is made here in the UK. This lasted about 2 months, but supply was soon restored to pre-covid levels. Theres also a major shortage in timber stock, with timber prices going through the roof for most common lumber sizes (many of which come from outside of europe). This lasted less than a month, with sales for DIY shops way higher than pre-covid levels and i can almost guarantee more people are doing home improvements than buying $5k+ MTBs.

What im getting at is that even with piss poor planning and no warning, 6 months to make a frame is unnaceptable. Even industries like CPU manufacturing that use rare earth metals in specialist facitilities are still able to launch products (samsung S21, Nvidea GPUs etc etc etc). Maybe working in ops transformation i just expected better from these companies...whatever happens i guess ill just have to buy something boutique.

EDIT: i dont think its unreasonable to expect to be back on a bike by summer!

Yes the products you quoted are mostly raw materials that can be supplies with just a simple increase in production without additional components required.

Take Nvidia/AMD right now they are not necessarily being held up by production of gpu's but supply of gdr6 ram. They are able to launch products but not keep up with demand hence the large scale scalping and reselling that is happening.

I work in the Utility industry and we are having supply issues with several components because suppliers cannot keep up with demand.

It's more of an issue of building out capacity and only producing enough to cover current demands without carrying surplus stock. So when the demand increases you have no capacity to take up more load.

You're kinda missing my point. Demand has outstripped supply and factories have been shut for a small period of time, yes.
But proper product and supply chain management means that these shortages should only be temporary. The GPU example is a great one. They are still managing to ship a few thousand units a month despite not having the wafers they need to fill demand. Where demand outstrips supply you get scalping.

With propain they are saying they cant fulfil a single order until October, 7 months from now...how could that be possible? How can a simple product made of tubes glued together vanish for an entire product cycle? You think these factories in Asia are closed? of course they arent. Is the work they do complex? no. They might make frames for mutliple brands, but the processes will be very similar. The product and supply chain managers in these bike companies have f*cked up somewhere along the line and i think we are suffering for it! (specifically me who has money burning a hole in my pocket to buy a new bike!!)

Im over simplifying a very complex process here, granted, but this isnt just 'muh covid get over it'.
flag morewhitenoise
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 14:53 Quote
ajax-ripper wrote:
Lumber and plaster are tooled up to make the same product everyday indefinitely. Bike factories are only tooled up to build a specific frame for as long as it takes to build the quota then the production line is retooled for a different frame and so on. Unless the number of factories increases exponentially to allow constant production of every model of bike frame we will be kind of f*cked.

yeah, this was a very generic example used to illustrate that the bike market is tiny compared to other industries which have responded to these challenges just fine. Making bikes is mostly man power and factories are still very much running in Asia.
flag mtbman1980
O+
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 15:00 Quote
It's like Ajax said they are not the only companies that are trying to catch up. All inventory is sold so wait inline for the next batch to be produced each company. We would have more issues with scalping and reselling if most of the bikes that are sold not sold to shops. Also a lot of shops have already presold their allotments.

Then say shimano maybe there is one part that is holding up the production then they cannot ship to install on a bike so then again holding up the supply chain. It's not like SRAM has capacity to produce all the drivetrains for all the bikes even though they wish they could.
flag badbadleroybrown
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 15:02 Quote
If I were to guess, it seems like there's a backlog in the factories that everyone outsources to... and they're just not doing much to help partially alleviate that log. So instead of getting a trickle of product like semiconductor companies are, they're getting nothing until they get their whole order. Each factory is busy running through orders for however many brands they build for and those brands are stuck waiting until the factory finishes the order and ships out a huge batch that's essentially all already spoken for... so the back orders keep piling up dragging things on playing catchup.

I'm really curious to see how it ends, either shops taking pre orders or customers buying bikes are gonna get left with a shit ton of bikes that aren't being used a year or two from now and the flipside of this bubble is gonna be more supply than demand, either barely used bikes or bikes that someone pre-ordered and canceled on.
flag mtbman1980
O+
Posted: Mar 5, 2021 at 15:11 Quote
Yeah it is going to be a tricky balancing act over the next year or so until demand stabilizes.

I'm hoping on cheap barely used bikes flooding the market so I can pick something up for my wife at a descent price.
flag mark-p
Posted: Mar 7, 2021 at 3:50 Quote
badbadleroybrown wrote:
If I were to guess, it seems like there's a backlog in the factories that everyone outsources to... and they're just not doing much to help partially alleviate that log. So instead of getting a trickle of product like semiconductor companies are, they're getting nothing until they get their whole order. Each factory is busy running through orders for however many brands they build for and those brands are stuck waiting until the factory finishes the order and ships out a huge batch that's essentially all already spoken for... so the back orders keep piling up dragging things on playing catchup.

I'm really curious to see how it ends, either shops taking pre orders or customers buying bikes are gonna get left with a shit ton of bikes that aren't being used a year or two from now and the flipside of this bubble is gonna be more supply than demand, either barely used bikes or bikes that someone pre-ordered and canceled on.

There are also huge issues with shipping. Loads of containers are stacked up on docks either full due to logistical issues further downstream or empty waiting for a ship to take them back. This in turn means it is more difficult for the ships to get in and unload. All this adds to increased costs and wait times.
flag Circe
Posted: Mar 7, 2021 at 8:10 Quote
Except the Nvidia/GPU example is a poor one. It illustrates the exact opposite of the point you are trying to make.

As the world has shifted to working from home, demand for home electronics has spiked. People are playing more video games, need newer laptops, and suddenly their kids each need computers.

This has resulted in mass shortage for the electronics required to assemble everything from Xbox’s to Cars. Tesla recently shut down a production line for two weeks because they couldn’t get chips. Other car manufacturers are feeling the same pinch. There are three years old graphic cards selling for MSRP on eBay, etc...

The same thing is happening in the bike industry. You cannot squeeze ~300,000 high end units out of a supply chain designed to pump out ~100,000. There is unprecedented demand for certain goods (outdoor supplies, home electronics, furniture, etc...) and it will likely remain until manufacturers can scale up (just in time for spending to shift?).

To scale requires raw materials for machinery and factories and well, that’s another story. Let’s just say, there’s an aluminum shortage as well

if you think you’re good enough to overcome all of these hurdles and pump out enough bikes to meet global demand, you’re smarter than all the MBAs at Trek and Specialized combined.

Wait, are you actually writing this from your private island in the caymans? Because you must be a genius. Maybe you can send over some stock tips? Or maybe a forum meeting in 2022 and we can rip your private trails.

TL;DR: October bike delivery is actually good.

Semiconductor shortage:

https://theconversation.com/how-the-world-ran-out-of-semiconductors-156532

Aluminum shortages:

https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/21940452/analysts-aluminum-market-will-see-shortage-by-end-of-year

Some light reading on shipping :

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business/global-shipping.html
flag bocomtb
O+
Posted: Mar 7, 2021 at 8:18 Quote
ninjatarian wrote:

Personally I would go with an XTR cassette vs Garbaruk. Weight isn’t everything, and I would not want to lose the sublime ramped shifting that Shimano has sorted out with the new 12 speed stuff (assuming you have 12 speed).
12 speed - yes.

Good point on the shifting quality. I had also figured the XTR cassette would be too spendy, but at around $380-$390 it’s not much more than the cranks.
flag Nobble
Posted: Mar 7, 2021 at 8:18 Quote
I'd really like a new Enduro, so if we can just hurry up and get to the surplus of products on shelves phase that'd be great.
flag Circe
Posted: Mar 7, 2021 at 8:48 Quote
Nobble wrote:
I'd really like a new Enduro, so if we can just hurry up and get to the surplus of products on shelves phase that'd be great.

When do you predict the deluge of interest will wane?

 


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