As we recently discussed
on Episode 39 of the Pinkbike Podcast, bike brands generally work on 24 to 36-month product cycles for their bikes. While bikes will normally get new specs and colour options each season, after three years it generally feels like time for a refresh. Whether trends have moved on or new standards have come in, brands want to make sure their models are as up to date as possible to be better options for customers.
This is not a hard and fast rule. Some brands, especially those that deal mainly with aluminum frames, work on continuous updates of their bikes, taking them out of the traditional model year format. In some cases, brands will actually work on shorter time frames. Some bikes that were released in 2018 were updated in 2020, just a two-year cycle, some examples would be the
Specialized Stumpjumper and its
Evo counterpart, the
Devinci Troy and the
Santa Cruz 5010. On the other hand, some bikes last longer than that and are still successful long into their lifespan, such as the
Scott Spark that was so progressive for its time it continues to be relevant today.
In an attempt to predict some new bikes that may be coming in 2021, I've gone back to 2017 and 2018 to work out which bikes may be at the end of their cycle and ready for a refresh. To be clear, I don't know anything about any of the bikes listed. I'm not a tech editor and I have been siloed off from any editor who may have some knowledge of any upcoming bikes - there's a good chance a couple editors are privy to specific details that they aren't able to discuss at this time. Nor is this a comment on the performance of any bike listed, I'm not qualified to make those claims and besides, two of them have just won World Championships and the rest are still all as good as the day they were released. The methodology was as simple as going back through our archives and going, "Huh, haven't seen that updated in a while." With that out of the way, let's see what could be in the pipeline for 2021.
2017 Bikes
Intense TracerIntense's Tracer has apparently been its most popular bike since its inception in 1999. It has been through various guises, but this long-travel, 27.5" carbon bike was released in early 2017 with
the 29" wheel Carbine coming later in the year. The bike has a stunning looking frame and was designed in collaboration with Cesar Rojo and the Cero Design studio and is something we'd love to see continued if it gets updated again soon.
Polygon Xquare OneOne of the more eye-catching and radical bikes we've seen in the past few years, the Polygon Xquare One definitely turned some heads when it was released in 2017. At the heart of the bike is the Darrel Voss' Naild R3act that was claimed to give incredible pedalling performance despite the bike's 180m travel.
Polygon
later introduced a downhill bike with the same system and is still selling the bike (although we notice
Marin has dropped its version from its product range). Will we see a modernised variant of this bike or can we expect something totally different again in the future?
Trek SessionHere's one we've already hinted at in our
Pinkibke Predictions article but the Trek Session seems to be in line for a refresh in 2021. Not only was the last major update four years ago but Trek has also been
busy bolstering its downhill team this winter which we would guess is partly to give the bike the strongest debut year possible.
The current Session was the first production carbon 29" downhill bike and has stayed relevant for the past three seasons thanks to that forward-thinking approach. Can we expect to see something equally radical with this new model? Only time will tell.
Orbea RallonThe asymmetrical Rallon was first released in 2017 but the Spanish brand hasn't been shy about updating it since then. In 2018, a
29" version came out then in 2019, Orbea released the
Rally On linkage kit that increased travel, sensitivity and progression. This was fitted to new models of the bike but also available as a backwards compatible upgrade for any riders on fifth-generation Rallons.
We'll be interested to see if Orbea continue to roll out updates on the Rallon platform or if something totally new will be in the pipeline for 2021.
Scott GeniusThe Genius was first introduced to Scott's line up in 2004 and for the 2017 version, it built on the Olympic winning success of the Spark to create a Horst Link driven design that was a lot more conventional than its predecessor. It was a lightweight bike with geometry that was very progressive for a trail bike at the time, including reaches over 500mm and a 65° head angle in the low setting. Also new was the updated TwinLoc system and the introduction of the Syncros one-piece bar and stem.
Canyon TorqueThe overhauled Canyon Torque was released within 10 days of
a new Spectral back in 2017. Given that the Spectral itself just had an update in the tail end of 2020, it seems logical that the Torque may not be too far behind.
The last overhaul turned the platform from a double-crown toting, freeride/park bike into a long travel single-crown, monster-truck. Seeing as that genre of bike is undergoing a resurgence at the moment, the time seems rife for Canyon to take advantage with an updated Torque.
2018 Bikes
YT CapraAlthough the
Goatman, horror-themed launch edit for the Capra sticks in the mind like it was yesterday, the bike itself is approaching its third birthday at this point. In the time since its launch, we've seen some awesome limited-edition versions of the Capra but its age suggests could be due for another update soon.
The last Capra was a huge overhaul that included the addition of a 29er version, an increase in travel and the option of a full carbon frame.These updates meant the bike morphed from an all-mountain machine into something even more formidable, one of the earliest bikes to herald the resurgence of longer travel mountain bikes.
Santa Cruz Blur & HighballThe Santa Cruz Blur and
Highball were released on the same day in 2018 as Santa Cruz overhauled its shortest travel offerings in one swoop. It's an Olympic year in 2021 and Santa Cruz has already shown some serious intent by
signing Maxime Marotte and Luca Braidot for its Santa Cruz FSA team so we expect they will be providing those top-tier riders something new to ride on too. In a world of ever more progressive bikes, we'll wait and see just how 'downcountry' Santa Cruz go with its weight weenie platforms.
Propain HugeneThe Propain Hugene was first introduced at the Garda Riva Bike Festival in 2018 and brought with it a suspension design that would eventually filter through Propain's entire range of bikes. The Pro 10 range now sits on everything except for its ebike and the downhill Rage - although
a prototype version has been raced throughout 2020.
If the Hugene gets updated for 2021 expect another short travel ripper at competitive pricing from the German direct sale brand.
Yeti SB 100The Yeti SB100 was one of our favourite bikes of 2018 and is arguably one of the bikes that spawned the term and trend of
downcountry.
Short in travel but progressive in nature and full of ambition, the bike was designed to answer Yeti President Chris Conroy's question of ''How capable can we make a 100mm travel bike?'' It answered that question in one word - very. Last year Yeti released the SB115, which uses the same frame as the SB100, but we'll wait and see if Yeti are tempted to make a few nips and tucks or maybe create an entirely new short travel machine at some point this year.
Canyon LuxThe Canyon Lux was updated in 2018 and under Mathieu Van der Poel and Pauline Ferrand Prevot it has proven to be one of the most successful XC racing bikes. We later used it as our
benchmark bike in the XC Field Test as we believed it to be a yardstick against which the other bikes should be measured. That being said, we felt that geometry could do with some tweaks when we did test it, especially as XC racing continually demands greater descending ability from riders and bikes nowadays. We look forward to seeing if Canyon has anything up its sleeve for the upcoming Olympics.
Trek RemedyThe Trek Remedy platform dates back to 2008 and since then it's been their ready-for-anything all-mountain machine with enough travel to get you out of trouble, but not enough to keep you from wanting to pedal it thousands of feet up into the alpine. Although the 2019 version looked very similar to its predecessors, it had tweaked geometry and suspension although it remained on 27.5" wheels with the
Slash taking care of 29" duties.
Rocky Mountain ThunderboltThe carbon Thunderbolt was released in March 2018 with
an aluminum version following in August. Moving up to 130mm on the normal models, and 140mm on the BC Edition, it placed the Thunderbolt firmly in the trail bike category although it remained stocked with 27.5" wheels only making it a bit of an outlier at that travel range. With short travel bikes becoming increasingly popular, we wouldn't be surprised if Rocky gave the Thunderbolt a few tweaks for 2021.
Norco's Range definitely has my attention.
Appears to be high pivot like you said, but also dual crown compatible.
I hear they have frames ready, but are waiting for parts before they release (as they keep the current limited supply of parts going to more volume sellers like the Optic and Sight).
(Tbf I’ve been gagging to see a new tracer for 2 years now! Come on, Jeff!)
Is that a felatio based joke???
I asked if they will have 27.5 wheel based capra's and they said they can't share any info, let's hope!
Heres to a patrol in large with 490 reach, 63.5 HA, 78 SA and 435 chainstays....
I’ve owned 2 intenses, but there is nothing in the line up today I would buy
Gwin and the new team is a marketing cost they had to bring on investors for. It's a gamble not a result of them being financially flush with cash.
Interesting point on pricing, though.
What criteria do most casual/weekend warriors use to select a bike? Pinkbike reviews -> Price -> Colors -> Parts? I couldn't care less what some pro is being paid to ride.
1. Aesthetics
2. Components
4. Geo/kinematics
5. Price
In that order with Price often overruling desires for 1-3
There is no way any company can sustain that for long. Look at YT, always out of stock or long wait times, pre-order. I think in order for Intense to sustain their business, they will need to move to adopt to that same sales model or something really similar.
With all due respect, I think you missed a Pinkbike comment requirement, my thoughts:
1. Water bottle
2. Aesthetics
3. Geo/ kinematic
4. Price/ components
I’d say price considerations is based on what components are on the bike. Do they charge $500 more for a GX build but still have cheapo wheels, or do they include some I9 wheels? But it’s obvious from bike redesigns, water bottles are considered important, as almost everyone has dumped bike designs that can’t fit a bottle in a normal place. I know it’s kept me from looking at a few bikes over the years.
yes this was part of the press release when Gwin joined
m.pinkbike.com/news/intense-restructures-with-a-new-management-team-and-a-commitment-to-racing-development.html
I’d expect to see the SB100 actually replaced by a whole new model, rather than updated. Something that differentiates it more from the SB115. They really are very close now.
I think you’ll see Yeti have a more XC frame.
Wheelbased did a guest article on here about them, maybe one of them is for the SB100.
Ill pass on any cubby holes or hidden multi purpose tools that are hardly functional. I carry a hydration back pack and its capable of transporting anything I need on a ride?
I just don’t want any excess rattles and shakes. I also don’t want excess weight on the bike. Carrying weight on your body is different than bike weight. I have been less than impressed with multi tools on the trail... I much prefer to carry real tools (hardly a few more ounces). I don’t think a water battle would be sufficient volume for my typical summer ride.
Sure... if it was race day... I would save weight everywhere, but just riding... real tools and sufficient water supply are a must.
I just built my first modern geo 27.5 bike, and to me it’s like taking the training wheels off. I think most riders experienced 27.5 with older bikes with poorly designed frames, and suspension components... well all components actually.
I think there are enough riders who would prefer the ability to choose or switch wheels sizes on a single bike, that manufacturers will incrementally one up each other and offer it.
there is no reason for that besides wheel size. that smaller front wheel saps so much speed and momentum when you hit holes and rocks and roots. I think Mullet is the future for 27.5.
It was asymmetrical before stumpjumper, it was running shorter fork offsets and steeper STAs right when Transition came out with SBG, building crazy robust bikes with a lifetime warranty and a full customization program.
Also - is there a company in the biz that's been around as long as Orbea? Est.1840 (in manufacturing firearms no less) is pretty hard to beat. They'll innovate.
For after work rides, all you need is 360wh, so you get to enjoy a light ebike for those. (more laps in daylight in winter) Slap the range extender on for longer days and you've got a full sized eeb all in one.
"Unlike most mountain bike classifications, downcountry is not just signified by how much travel it has. Downcountry bikes are all about the combination of short travel and progressive geometry."
It does sound a bit like a modern trail bike with travel from a few years back no?
DC if you want to set Strava records (summer tires), Enduro if you want more confidence in the chunk (winter tires). Or Trail if you just wanna putt around in a Toyota (all-season tires).
Lots of people buy Toyotas...
"DC if you want to set Strava records (summer tires), Enduro if you want more confidence in the chunk (winter tires). Or Trail if you just wanna putt around in a Toyota (all-season tires)." I'm not following your analogy here. Seems more like your comparing tires than bikes. I think what you were suggesting is if Go-fast is your goal-> DC, if you want to tackle some gnar ->EN, if you just want to enjoy trails at a modest pace with moderate difficulty->TR. Guess what, most people do TR...TR ain't going anywhere. I'd also argue that many of the 130-140mm travel TR bikes can manage DC pretty well thanks to their slack and long geo.
There is no such thing as Downcountry, the proper term is #Downcountry
Do you race XC regularly? Apparently that is the only way you would understand #Downcountry.
A #downcountry bike is an XC race bike that has been modified to also be able to rip trails (Burlier fork, long travel dropper post, wide handlebars, maybe meatier tires) Usually a hardcore XC race bike would have none of this. If you have ever tried to win an XC race on a trail bike, you would know it will not happen. That is where #downcountry comes in. I can win XC races on my Element and still beat you down your favorite descent on it. Now brands are starting to spec XC bikes this way. Look at the new Epic vs Epic Evo.
Just because you don't understand a category doesn't mean you should try and shoehorn it into your own twisted worldview and tell us we are all wrong. Accept that you may not know what you are talking about and move on. You obviously don't need a #downcountry bike so why do you care?
@hardcore-hardtail offered a great example of the TR squeeze with Specialized:
Epic... Epic Evo...Stumpy...Stumpy Evo. I'm saying the Stumpy is the odd bike out... the Epic Evo is tons faster and still trail capable... the Stumpy Evo can handle rougher chunk and still pedal well on the Greens... the Stumpy is just in the middle... blah.
I can have fun on any bike...but I just cant buy a TR again. It just feels a little too slow when I want speed, and a little too limited and compromising when I want to "take risks". I can do all the middle ground stuff with a DC or EN bike... so it just makes more since (to me) to choose a type of riding that I'm more inclined to do (DC or EN) and do that really well... but also use the bike for the middling stuff.
I myself have a couple bikes... so I can choose a bike for the type of riding I want.
XC = 80-100mm, less aggressive geo, 23+/- pounds, less aggressive/light weight tires.
DC = 110-120mm, low/long/slack geo, 26+/- pounds, aggressive/light weight tires.
TR = 130-140mm, less aggressive geo, 29+/- pounds, aggressive/mid weight tires.
EN = 150-170mm, low/long/slack geo, 32+/- pounds, aggressive/mid weight tires.
DH = 180+mm, low/long/slack geo, 35+/- pounds, aggressive/heavy weight tires.
In this example... the TR looks like it has a nice slot to fit in... and it does (as I have said). I just prefer the speed and aggressiveness of the DC, or the bomber capability of the EN... both of which can do the middling duties of casual riding just as well as the TR (thanks to modern geo).
Yes... I think the issue at hand is that traditional TR bikes with "modern geo" have pushed themselves very close to EN. creating a gap that has been filled by DC bikes. And that is the whole issue... traditional TR bikes have been replaced by DC and modern geo TR bikes now more like EN bikes.
That is an interesting assessment of TR bikes. It's almost like you're suggesting that there are two tiers of EN bikes. Compromised EN bikes formally called TR bikes with 130-140mm travel and actual EN bikes that have 150-170mm travel. This is an interesting theory and opinion. So here's a funny thought, I wonder where you would place my previous bike a 2012 vintage 110mm front and rear travel FSR bike (that was also considered a TR bike). It wasn't low/long/slack by current standards but it was compared to the XC bikes of its day. By your rubric though, I wonder if you'd consider that an XC bike today.
I have not had the opportunity to ride a contemporary DC bike, but seeing as how I able to fully utilize my 130mm/115mm rig, I doubt the DC bike would have enough travel to meet my needs, yet a 150-170mm bike is far too much bike for my comfort level to fully utilize. Nonetheless you posit an interesting argument about why the market needs DC, TR, and EN. I think there are probably valid arguments for the elimination of either DC or TR. But now that, for example, FOX has a 32, 34, 36, 38, and 40 I find it hard to believe any of the categories (XC, DC, TR, EN, FR, DH) are going anywhere anytime soon. It a buyers market and you can now find a bike that fits your needs perfectly, or buy multiple bikes to address multiple needs (that is what the bike industry wants us to do)...that good old adage of how many bike do you need? N+1 is always the answer and the bike industry is making sure there is always an option for that +1 bike.
I do race XC, but I also race other categories. I feel like you described a compromised XC bike rather than an enhanced XC bike. If I were serious about racing XC I'd just own an XC bike. I want a quiver killer bike I'm not going with a #Downcountry bike that isn't going to be aggressive enough. I really doubt your DC will be as pleasurable, comfortable, or as fast my TR bike to descend. I wouldn't say I am trying to shoehorn the DC category in my world view to tell anyone their wrong. But certainly do question why the DC category needs to exist but perhaps it could be argued that a DC bike is compromised XC bike in the same sense that a TR bike is a compromised EN bike. That is probably a fair argument."You obviously don't need a #downcountry bike so why do you care?" Touche. I care because I feel bad for those just entering the sport that are likely overwhelmed by the diversity of bikes to choose from and the lack of clarity about what each category of MTB of is best suited for. Besides that, who does "need" a DC bike and why won't another category meet their needs? I think that is probably a tough question to answer and I suspect a big factor is simply stigma. I bet a there are a lot of guys that enjoy riding XC but don't want, what may be perceived as, a soft, weeny image so they forego the XC bike and select a DC bike because that's more macho and perhaps a little more versatile and because one bike is all they can afford to have. Winning races isn't important to me, I'd rather have fun and push myself in the company of others in XC, DC, and TR races hence a TR bike was the best choice for me (and I only have one bike).
Your last statement "Winning races isn't important to me" is my best explanation of why you don't understand.
If winning races was important to you and you could only afford one bike that you still wanted to shred rowdy trails = Downcountry.
I'm done with this silly conversation,
Happy Trails!
I believe what may be missing from my ability to convince you that DC and EN have pinched TR to the point of obsolescence, is your not having ridden a modern geo DC or EN bike.
You mentioned your concern for enough travel with a DC bike... that's the brilliance of DC... the modern geo allows you to engage all but the most extreme conditions with confidence and speed beyond what a traditional TR bike could... with less travel... and less weight.
On the other hand you mentioned a 150-170 bike is far too much for you... but again a modern geo EN bike makes that additional travel unnoticeable, and you always have enough for any challenge.
I have a DC and an EN... if I had to choose one, it would be the DC. But I do enjoy virtually eliminating the trail with the EN every now and then.
Happy Trails!
"I believe what may be missing from my ability to convince you that DC and EN have pinched TR to the point of obsolescence, is your not having ridden a modern geo DC or EN bike." Possibly.
"that's the brilliance of DC... the modern geo allows you to engage all but the most extreme conditions with confidence and speed beyond what a traditional TR bike could... with less travel... and less weight." Maybe. You're suggesting I could ride faster with more confidence on a bike with less travel assuming the DC bike had geometry more aggressive than my trail bike. I just doubt their is much difference in geometry compared to my current bike for me to draw that conclusion about a DC bike.
"On the other hand you mentioned a 150-170 bike is far too much for you... but again a modern geo EN bike makes that additional travel unnoticeable, and you always have enough for any challenge." I don't want to tempt myself to take on challenges bigger than I already contend with; I'd just be asking for bigger injuries...played that game once already when I had a DH bike and got overconfident with the bike. I would consider an EN bike if I decide to further progress my riding abilities, but I'm pretty content with where my abilities are right now. Alaska trails are not so rowdy as to really need EN levels of travel. If lived in the American SW again or the North Shore of Vancouver BC, EN bike all the way. What can I say, I buy bikes that match 95% of the riding I do and TR fits that quite well. I think DC would have me wanting a little more bike and EN would give me way too much confidence to do dumb things for which I lack the skill to succeed at riding resulting in inevitable injuries. The TR bike is a good insurance policy; keeps me in check. If I ever get the chance to demo a modern DC bike (or shoot an EN bike) I won't hesitate to try it. Sadly not many bike makes venture up here to strut their product. If anyone was really likely to, it would be Trek.
Maybe they'll mullet the new one... if they can nail the geo (for once).
Shorter seat tube hopefully, and a little more steep.
Hopefully they add it on the alloy version.
Remedy won't increase wheelbase I assume.
The gorilla in the room is how serious the smaller manufacturers are paying attention to E bikes. That segment for any "serious" manufacturer has to be taken into account. They either put money and research into it or they don't. It's expensive and time-consuming.
Like it or not.......the roots of the e-bike movement have already been planted, e-bikes aren't going away......and for those manufacturers who've already made a commitment to them, it's likely crap or get off the E-bike pot now.
Couple that with the fact that a new administration will likely tighten regulation even more IC engines (in the recreational realm)......will the new leaders push a mandatory, lasting shutdown to attempt to control covid?
The next year will as critical for bike manufacturers and any time in the modern era.
SC HAS to make a splash with a serious xc bike given their commitment to a real xc team on the international stage so huge year for them to make a push.
2023/2024....the bike updates.. new standard suckers. Your bike is now obsolete.
Never mind, I'll let myself out......
Specialized Levo SL based on new stumpy geo.
Current spark was my2017, current Genius my2018.
Spark comes first in Scott's typical refresh cycle.
And the sta is already refreshingly steep plus in the high setting and with a 160 fork it looks like it'll work with a smaller rear wheel without killing the geo or putting your pedals at too much risk of killing you in the rocks.
The fact that they added a coil and long forked it this year seems to confirm the geo is already dated and soon to be updated. Every time SC mutates the original bike they update it the next model year.
Orbea CEO: "Hey, Orbea designers, did you see? Specialized came out with a new Stumpjumper! Time for us to update the Rallon so they are practically identical looking bikes!"
Orbea Designers: "OK, we're on it"
Doubt
Regardless I’m pretty excited to see what they do. I definitely plan to get one to replace my 2018 at some point.
Head tube angle is at 65 degrees. Most new enduro bikes are 64. I expect the next gen to slacken a little.
Chain stays 435-440 depending on size. They were ahead of the game by changing the length based on bike sizes. Modern numbers here.
STA is pretty shit. 75.5 effective is definitely not realistic. Biggest issue I have with it, especially running a 210mm dropper.
Just look at the new slash for comparison... the Capra is pretty darn close geo wise and is 3 years old. With the exception of the STA and a slightly steeper HTA, the bike has pretty modern geometry.
I suspect that changes will be fairly significant to the Rallon. The current Rallon was designed to be a great pedalling all around bike. The next bike will probably be a pure Enduro race bike. There will be changes in geometry but most importantly there will be changes in the suspension characteristics, that optimize it for descending but give up some climbing performance.