Commencal Releases Update on Prices & Timelines Impacted by COVID

Dec 28, 2020
by COMMENCAL bicycles  
EWS Finale 2020


PRESS RELEASE: Commencal Bicycles


This famous year of 2020 is about to end... What a time!

As you know, the bike industry has generally been among the lucky ones to "benefit" from the situation. Demand has exploded. People have realised the value of cycling and the joys of mountain biking in the great outdoors. And this is obviously very good news for our planet.

But on the other hand, with this rapidly growing demand, several factors are now slowing momentum.

First of all, production. Particularly components. Finding the vast majority of components required to assemble a complete bike is extremely complicated today. Saddles, tyres, suspension, transmission. Major component brands such as Shimano, SRAM, FOX and Schwalbe, who produce mainly in Taiwan, give lead times of between 9 and 18 months. They are normally able to deliver within a maximum of 3 months. The reason for this stems from difficulties in finding certain raw materials and/or factories that have had to be shut down due to COVID, which also lengthened supply times.

On top of this, issues related to transport. The delays in moving goods from Asia to all other continents have skyrocketed. A concrete example, it took us about 3 weeks to ship a container from Taiwan to Golden, Colorado, but now we need between 2 and 3 months. The ports are full. Boats are floating outside port entrances for several weeks whilst waiting to be able to dock (see photo). Transportation prices have suddenly and strongly increased. We are currently paying on average 4 times more for the delivery of a container compared to the same time last year.




Final point, exchange rates. The currencies of our main countries (United States, Canada, Europe, Australia) have fallen sharply against the Taiwanese dollar. The cost price of our bikes has therefore increased sharply in just a few months.




Therefore, for all these reasons combined, our production and delivery times have been greatly extended, and the cost price has exploded. This is why we have been forced to review the price of some of our bikes in a number of currencies. And of course, we apologise to those who are patiently or impatiently waiting for their bike, or who can't find their dream bike in the right size.

We hope for a return to normal as soon as possible but we believe it won't be until the end of 2021 at the earliest.

Happy holidays to all and let’s look forward to 2021 anyway!

COMMENCAL Bicycles



188 Comments

  • 321 48
 It's almost like we should stop relying on countries with zero employee and environmental protection agencies to cheaply produce our toys and bring that more directly under our control......
  • 21 9
 Sorry neg’d in error
  • 175 5
 Tawain isn't China. Their worker rights protections are relatively good (40 hour week, then overtime, annual vacation time, family and sick leave, etc.).
  • 32 9
 Oh my god imagine how expensive an all made-in-first-world-countries bike would be though
  • 17 0
 How would this address the issues put forward in this statement? The only one would be the exchange rate of the dollar, but that would be a non-issue because it would still cost more to produce locally.
  • 48 4
 @transam711: It depends. Guerilla Gravity manage to produce a competitively priced carbon frame. You just have to be smart with the design and manufacturing techniques. I.e. we probably don't need derailleurs at 10 different price points with basically just different surface finishes.
  • 43 4
 @TotalAmateur: Potential upside: Once the Fed has finished devaluing the dollar into the abyss, maybe countries like Taiwan will look at cheap manufacturing from the US and you'll get your wish.
  • 1 0
 @transam711: About the same it sounds like.
  • 8 16
flag TotalAmateur (Dec 28, 2020 at 10:26) (Below Threshold)
 @SmashySmashy: Heyoo! I say bring on the trade wars. We're getting bled dry just because people can't control their spending and hate to be inconvenienced, might as well be making forward progress.
  • 2 0
 @Loche: But can they scale?
  • 26 0
 @TotalAmateur Name checks out...
  • 4 2
 @transam711: look at Nicolai and MDE for example. Nicolais start at about 2500 €, MDEs start at under 2000 €. Throw in custom geometry and raise those prices by ~500 €. Commencals cost 1400 €. Honestly, it's not THAT much of a markup and you get the benefit of having the exact geometry you want if you're prepared to pay for it.

If only bikes were similar to PC world, where building it yourself is financially viable, but a self built bike with MSRPs costs almost twice as much as a prebuilt... -_-

@rrolly: no shipping, more stable production conditions.
  • 2 0
 @Primoz: If by PC world you mean Dell, you're right, but that is one the most advanced supply chains in the world, to be fair.
  • 7 4
 Should have kept the Trans Pacific Partnership.
  • 6 3
 @bertimusmaximus: f*cking loool, ya lets have a bunch of agricultural countries start producing rubber and other goods they don't have an advantage in or reasonable environmental guidelines to adhere to.
  • 1 0
 @transam711: the same price. The margins are so small now
  • 1 1
 @noplacelikeloam: man I built a pc with parts from newegg and Amazon for 750$ Including a good gpu..
  • 2 0
 @makripper: Yeah but now do that 1000 times per completely automated day with all the choices you had, delivered within 1 week.
  • 1 0
 @noplacelikeloam: 99% of the time spec-per-spec PC will be cheaper to build yourself then to buy it prebuilt. You can check countless videos on YT regarding this. And this is even more apparent when comparing to big companies like HP, Dell, Asus etc.
  • 1 0
 @noplacelikeloam: And the by far worst customer service there is (luckily not where I live as the distributer is ok as far as I know).
  • 2 0
 @noplacelikeloam: I did. So if it is? I can still throw together a CPU, graphics card, RAM, SSD, a motherboard and PSU, throw it into a case and get actually better performance fort he same price as I would get from HP, Dell & co.

Granted, you don't have the warranties and support that you get from the big ones (well, the jury is out on this one), but given that I'm well capable of wrenching my PC (do it for my friends too) as I am capable of wrenching bikes (do it for my friends too, too, including suspension servicing and wheel building), I don't really need the manufacturer warranty. Hell, given my experience, I'd be better off without said warranty!!

THe issue is that I don't get the products cheaper in that case. They are actually more expensive... Vastly so :/

As for 1000 times, there is a place for that, for sure. Most people need that. Businesses and companies need that!! Some of us, geeks, nerds and hobby mechanics, can handle the stuff on our own. For those, in the PC world, there is a benefit (lower total price). In the bike world, not so much, you're heavily penalized for going 'your own way'... :/
  • 2 0
 It will be more expensive
  • 2 0
 This comment totally got dropped here for no reason. WTF Pb? Smile
  • 1 0
 @Primoz: yup everyday of the week. Wierd how cheap it is to build them
  • 1 0
 @Loche: I rather think that GG does not have the margin as well. This means less owner investor return. Capitalism is greedy by design. Always going to move production to where the people who have the power get the most money. If companies like Santa Cruz, Special, etc could make as much money domestically they'd do it in an instant. Last time I looked at getting something made it was cheaper to get it made and shipped to the US than made here and this only got better the bigger the scale.
  • 3 4
 @Cyberhatter: Santa Cruz is owned by pon holdings. A dutch investor group. It's hardly a small bike company that operates in the scale you were assuming.
  • 4 0
 @makripper: don't think you understood. I put sc in the same sentence as specialized. Hardly indicates a small scale.
  • 1 9
flag makripper (Dec 28, 2020 at 19:35) (Below Threshold)
 @Cyberhatter: no I understood that you don't know what you are talking about
  • 14 0
 While the idea of local production is excellent, and a lot of European companies do exactly that or are in the process of setting it up, the whole supply chain is a lot more complicated than you might think. Shimano of Japan has some of the higher wages on this globe, producing high-end products in Japan. Sram and Fox produce in Taiwan, but for a good part it's because Taiwan has technologies and a supply chain from raw materials to surface finishing that is so high-quality and bicycle industry specific that it would be hard to replicate anywhere else, or take years to do it (as it took Taiwan to build up). So, sorry for the negative props, but the world is a bit more complicated than we like to think sometimes. Cheers
  • 3 0
 @Primoz: So your time and effort is worth nothing then? Build a PC for yourself if you want to, but recognize that the many hours of component research, price comparisons, deal shopping, ordering, waiting, assembling, setting up, testing, installing means you spent more indulging in a hobby than you did saving a buck.
  • 3 0
 @TinuKu: True story. We used to produce components in Canada but we ran out of industries to support it. The stuff were doing with forgings and hydroforming are not possible in North America... Any capacity is being used by the military industrial complex and they don't have time for small potatoes like the bike industry.
  • 1 0
 @transam711: yes, but it would also mean people would buy less bikes (looking at the annual upgraders on all 4 of their bikes mostly.) I'd take the more expensive but better made bikes anytime.
  • 1 1
 @transam711: And how shit it would be.
  • 7 0
 @MarcusBrody: "Tawain isn't china"


not yet, anyways....also, not if you ask the chinese....Frown
  • 2 0
 @Primoz: You are still dealing with shipping, just not from Asia. And you have no idea about stable production conditions in Taiwan. They are very stable. The big bike manufacturers are incredibly reliable. If they weren't, the big bike brands wouldn't be able to deal with them.
  • 8 1
 You know, it's kind of racist to just assume this shit. Taiwan is more modern than most of North America.
  • 5 3
 Taiwan is a first world country with plenty of first world worker protections and environmental regulations. Just because they are Asian doesn’t mean they’re some shit hole country. Might want to check your racism.
  • 1 0
 @MarcusBrody: 40 hr work week generally hurts the 'labor class'. Most dont want to pay overtime so therefore hours available to work(income potential)are limited. Sure, thats different if a worker is 'forced'.
  • 1 0
 Gg does it but they make 4 of the same bike they don’t ride that great. Huge fan of the company. Not if the bikes themselves
  • 3 1
 @Dethphist: I tend to argue that my free time is worth more than what I'm paid at work. So actually quite expensive.

But "the joke's on you", regardless if I bought a prebuilt PC/bike or not, I'd still service it on my own. Because I know how to and I want things done "properly" and because I enjoy it. And regarding research, it would take me roughly 10 minutes of checking internet stores to throw you together a parts list for a new primary workstation PC AND a new FreeNAS server that I would build right at this moment. And same goes for a new bike, where the only problem would actually be choosing a frame. Because I follow these topics passionately and daily so I'm up to speed on them.

So yeah, the cost argument is thrown out the window in this case and is essentially zero, as that time would be spent on the same topics in any case.

But you do have a point, don't worry. If I had the space and tools to do servicing on my car and had 2 or 3 cars where I always had one working to go to work with, I'd maybe wrench on cars too. For the pure fun of it. With no space, not enough tools and having only one car that must be operational tomorrow for me to go to work with... Sorry, it's a car workshop for it, let them deal with it. I don't have an option of having a car torn apart in my driveway for 2 weeks because I snapped a bolt trying to replace brake pads or something. But these are not problems I have with PCs and bikes as I'm more than well enough equipped with tools and knowledge to deal with them. Most of the time.

As for prebuilt PCs, it's the exact same situation as with my car when it comes to businesses. Workers aren't paid to deal with their equipment, it was bought with a certain level of support from the manufacturer for them to take care of it. You usually don't have such mission critical applications at home to need a few-hour-support level. If you do, you better be earning some big bucks from it to make it worth it and/or learn how to handle it on your own so you can actually fix that complicated system you have running.

Also, regarding the worth of time, I'm an "idiot" who doesn't charge anything when servicing and fixing computers and bikes for friends, because I do it as a favor. You never know when you will need something from them and if I charged every single minute of my time even for friends, what kind of a person does that make me? Hardcore capitalist doesn't even begin to cover it. It just doesn't seem okay for me to 'earn' from my friends. If I was running a business doing these kinds of things it's a different story, but like I mentioned, I do it for the fun of it.

@rrolly: shipping from the production hall to the warehouse? Razz
The idea was to have your own production. So stable as in you know what you can do and when you can do it. With asian manufacturing you're ordering products from a company that covers a few companies like 'yours', so you might not be the priority. In times like these when there is less production and more demand, you could pull the shorter straw. With your own production it's more or less business as usual.

It was never my intention to imply that they don't have their shit together or anything. Hell, even Cornelius (Intend) sources certain parts of his forks from Taiwan (I think it was the grinding process of the sliders?) when the intention was to have it all made in Germany or the EU at first. He simply couldn't get a supplier with a high enough level of quality over here...

Plus it's fairly well known, at least with carbon, that the best products are made in Taiwan while China is the go-to place for cheaper stuff, usually.
  • 3 0
 @MarcusBrody: Unfortunately not for long. China demands that Taiwan is a chinese state. Best we can do is stop buying products made in China.
  • 1 0
 @vid1998: right now is the 1% time it’s cheaper to buy a pre built. Was going to build in October. Pre built same spec was $500 cheaper. Dirt bag gpu scalpers
  • 1 1
 @smgishot13: got off your high elevation equine, ffs. not everything you think is racist is in fact racist. what's the saying...be cautious in what you seek, as you will likely find it.
  • 2 0
 @FrsknSld: that is true, as SIs actually get GPU (and CPU! - AMD 5000 series) allocations and actually sell them for MSRP, as there is no point in them scalping their customers too. And AMD and Nvidia gain more from supporting the SIs with parts allocation than random stores apparently.

This was all discussed in various WAN shows from LTT.

But this is a 'fluke' in the system where there isn't enough production due to TSMCs 7 nm process being strained. They cover a shit ton of SoC production for everybody and their mom, like Qualcomm, Mediatek and the like, they do all the AMD stuff, GPUs, CPUs, APUs and both new consoles, and they do Nvidias higher end (Tesla and the like) GPUs. Consumer Nvidia GPUs are made by Samsung in 8 nm, but that process also isn't all that it could be yields and quantites wise I think.

On the opposite side you have TONS of demand for these products, apparently up to 10-times as much as in previous generations.


Well, honestly, there isn't much of a difference in the bike world, except that we don't have a scalper issue with our stuff and previous gen stuff isn't 50 % worse in performance Smile
  • 1 0
 @knarf1: you know that'll never happen, everyone is against the regime until they're electronics get more expensive.
  • 1 0
 @byfan: IKR. I'm sick of this crap. It's just a bad situation that very little can be done to rectify other than waiting.
  • 1 0
 @byfan: IKR. I'm sick of this crap. It's just a bad situation that very little can be done to rectify other than waiting.
  • 1 0
 @byfan: what exactly is racist? you're conflating economic issues with social issues.
  • 1 0
 @TotalAmateur: All the people blaming the Taiwanese people and saying that they're an undeveloped country are the ones conflating the issues. I'm just pointing it out
  • 50 1
 Thanks for the insight Commencal. Really appreciate that! Keep it up.
  • 16 14
 I already heard about it from a couple of women at Commencal - Amy and Clara. I'm pretty lucky to know them - they are always sharing info with me.
  • 25 0
 @suspended-flesh: Wait Clara doesn't only write to me!? I feel betrayed.
  • 6 0
 @dudeism: You know her, too?! I thought we had something special. I never told Amy@commencal.com about Clara either. Thought I was a player.
  • 71 27
 Wait until they add our brexit tax... God damn older generation
  • 50 31
 blaming the older generation for not understanding how things "really are" is the same as being an old curmudgeon shaking your balled up fist at the sky and crying out the "youngsters" are ruining everything bc they don't understand the world
  • 16 17
 You will never get out of mom's basement now right ?
  • 17 1
 Wait until you get the spanish inquisition !
  • 10 22
flag suspended-flesh (Dec 28, 2020 at 10:11) (Below Threshold)
 Try voting for the correct outcome next time.
  • 11 17
flag nojzilla (Dec 28, 2020 at 10:51) (Below Threshold)
 @suspended-flesh: @suspended-flesh: Yeah f*cking rooiight, like that makes a difference.. the Uk gov did what they wanted to, public sentiment be damned. Just like your 2016 election
  • 12 8
 @TotalAmateur: apart from the fact that polls showed the moajority of brexit voters where boomers an remainers where young but, polls eh? what do they f*cking know
  • 3 1
 To be fair to some older voters, FDI and regionalization of supply chains was radically different when the EU was formed. I wish the evolution of the union had been better explained than it was. Might have had a different outcome. Who knows.
  • 5 1
 @TotalAmateur: correct me if I'm wrong, but he meant that the older generation unanimously voted for Brexit while the rest failed to vote at all. So the fate of Brexit was basically sealed by the older generation.
  • 5 0
 @QuebecPoulin: Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
  • 12 5
 @nojzilla: USA 2016 was fair - we just have a lot of idiots voting here.

Pardon The Swamp!
  • 8 2
 @nojzilla: lol not sure if you're being sarcastic but in the US polls and surveys have basically been repurposed to serve political narratives without any basis for scientific testing.
  • 5 0
 @TotalAmateur: To be fair, its always been that way, in the UK also. The NHS was famous for trying to meet call response time quotas for surveys by having people call in at specific times to skew the data.
  • 3 4
 @taldfind: Inquisitive bunch, those Catholics.
  • 3 0
 Free trade agreement has already been announced?
  • 1 4
 @suspended-flesh: Yea we will pardon your ignorance once again.
  • 3 2
 @Logan760: You are a very gracious troll, sir.
  • 4 7
 @nojzilla: didn't they literally try to have a second brexit vote just to disenfranchise those who voted the first time? And f*cking lol if you think the majority of our government wanted trump in 2016. That's one of the most backwards things I've ever heard. Have you paid attention the last four years, I assume you have since most EU countries follow American politics far more than their own countries lol.
  • 2 1
 @DylanH93: no second Brexit referendum, we had an early ELECTION (referendums and elections are not the same things) due to the leadership of the current political party changing. Nothing to do with brexit. It was so the party could gain enough seats in the house to vote through certain policies.

And yes, I was being sarcastic.........
  • 2 0
 I’m a remainer so not trumpeting Brexit but what tax would that be? There won’t be any duty charges and VAT is VAT and our numbers aligned pretty much a anyway.

What am i missing? Other than a customs charge of a few quid maybe?
  • 5 4
 @nojzilla: @nojzilla: he is right though, the establishment hated Trump. The only reason Biden won was because the media manipulated data, while the election itself was wrought with fraud. Nobody wants this past election looked into that wanted Biden to win. They elected an old white racist guy with only half a working brain and a history of corruption, because they were sick of old corrupt white men...... the American Left is easily the most uninformed misguided bunch out there. Not the extreme right is any more educated, but at least there was a lengthy investigation into Trumps win whereas the entirety of the suspicious behavior surrounding this last election will probably be swept under the rug by our liberal overlords. Praise the new bourgeois!! For thee not for me!
  • 1 0
 @ricochetrabbit: In 28 posts using an empty PB profile, @TotalAmatuer has almost never mentioned anything related to a mountain bike. At least you actually appear to be a Florida Man on a bike.
  • 1 0
 Pennsylvania man on a bike. I only live in Florida part time @suspended-flesh:
  • 33 1
 Let’s hope that this leads to more locally produced products.
  • 4 2
 That would come at cost too - raw materials, local higher wages and benefits, machines and technologies that are often gone. Import of components for kits. Im all for local production but it comes with the price and would not be probably cheaper. And im afraid people are not ready to pay for it in the todays world.
  • 1 1
 @kusa: And it's not just the cost of higher wages etc. In both our countries the red tape to go through to get a company with scale up and running is a significant barrier to entry. Unless you're already established in the industry and can add a new sku, it pretty much is not going to happen.
  • 1 0
 That seems like a good idea, but its not ideal at scale. Poor use of capital and often the local resources are not the best ones for the job. So by staying local it could make more expensive products that arent as good and arent available when you want them.
  • 6 2
 I kinda hope the world opens up so the weekend warriors forget how much fun biking is and go do other shit instead. As cool as it is to see people enjoying bikes, empty trailheads are much cooler.
  • 3 0
 That would be a good thing overall but man if people complain about current pricing, just imagine what it could be in that scenario. Basic hardtail that costs $600 these days going for $2500. Want a basic FS, you're looking at $6k. Add in how worthless our currency will be in the coming years with how fast we're printing money and it doesn't look promising.
  • 2 0
 ...”hope”....
  • 1 0
 @KK11:
“Hope! That comforter in danger.”
That hope has been around for the past several years, and while it resulted in lower barriers to selling to Asia, has not produced an increase in US domestic manufacturing.

(Manager at mid-sized manufacturing company)
  • 22 3
 Long lead times? Raising prices? We get it... and it’s overall a good problem to have. That said, Commencal et al need to work with their resellers to get better payment terms in place. I’m not going to put $3000 down to get a bike 12 months from now. No chance. Directly as a result of this, we bought a nice used SB5 instead of a new Tallboy for my partner. Go figure out better financing and deposit terms!
  • 14 7
 Simple. Don't finance a bike you can't afford.
  • 16 0
 @Noah353: you’re completely missing the point. It’s the opportunity cost of putting $3000 into a deposit on a leisure item that’s going to literally depreciate for 8-12 months BEFORE I even receive the bike, plus the opportunity cost of that money not working. Which, by the way, would have meant $4-$600 in stock market returns over the last 9 months on that $3,000. That’s absurd and I and many buyers aren’t willing to do that.
  • 1 0
 @rburroughs4: you need to understand the issue from the manufacterer's standpoint as well as the seller. Your point is a good one, and one that should be addressed, but from the position of the seller, if they take a smaller deposit to order your bike, there is less incentive on your part to remain in the agreement. Unless you, and the rest of the customers out there are willing to consider the deposit NON-REFUNDABLE, then it is the same situation for the seller. A customer will put a deposit down, start waiting and eventual buy some used SB5 or something and come back demanding a refund.
  • 1 0
 I don't know long lead times and raising prices are a good problem to have. It has resulted with me (and apparently you as well) unwilling to commit to a new bike purchase.
  • 1 0
 @Noah353: More like, don't buy a bike that you can't ride till who knows when.
  • 1 0
 They should do a smaller deposit on the bikes rather then full payment. Although I emailed them in Canada a few weeks back and they said it can be refunded at any time or switch to a different build bike that might be available sooner (which is looking like never at this point)
  • 11 2
 It’s not a great situation, is it? Bringing the manufacture of goods closer to home is one answer, but the picture of container ships waiting to dock is a bit mis-leading. Fly over any large port, and you’ll always see container ships waiting to dock, even without a global pandemic having an adverse impact.
  • 2 0
 Easier to say than achieve —Taiwan is the centre of the bike industry - if you make a frame in say Germany many parts still come from Taiwan, if you make a frame in Taiwan it’s easier to buy parts also made in Taiwan and assemble there then ship parts in from other parts of the world to assemble.

Make the whole bike and it’s parts in Europe or similar? Well that’s miles off for a consumer level bike and currently not possible, £10k bikes don’t count.
  • 1 0
 @justanotherusername: valid points; I totally understand bringing manufacturing ‘home’ isn’t the only answer. But I do wonder, with now-processed raw materials spread across the globe after being made into whatever, then discarded into landfill at whatever point they’ve served their purpose, can these be re-mined from landfills within the destinations they’ve ended up? I know this does happen, and if enough material can be re-mined to satisfy the need in say, the UK, perhaps the need to ship raw materials around the world might come to an end. Just a thought.
  • 2 0
 @simirving: I like the idea of domestic recycling of old parts into new raw material.

We recycle all of our ‘scrap’ here at work, I’m not sure if it stays in the UK though or not, it would be interesting to find out.

The issue in the UK at least is I am not sure if there is a single aluminium mill for production of engineering grade raw material - all of our stuff comes from Europe but this will be because it’s local to the mines.

The honest answer is probably simpler though - we all need to consume less and less often, £10k bikes lasting 2 years before the industry convinces us it’s obsolete is a much bigger problem.
  • 1 0
 @justanotherusername: consumption is the obstacle we can all get over. We just need to get over ourselves, and stop consuming. Easier said than done, I know, especially as we’re used to getting what we want, when we want. I am excited about the future might hold, especially the positives that will materialise when this pandemic is under control.
  • 8 0
 I'm all for the calls for build/manufacturer local, but you still have to contend with getting the raw materials from the point of origin to the destination, so that's just cutting out one stop at the factory which most likely has raw materials closer. So where are those raw materials coming from? You still may be running into road blocks.

In Canada we're lucky to have Devinci, chromag and a few others as "local" builders but those come at a price for higher end stuff. As well if your looking for components to build those local bike they're still coming from elsewhere. Manufacturers would basically have to have independent factory's on every continent with their own independent material sourcing that was also local. That's fox, Shimano, SRAM, FSA.

As mentioned above in another comment, new start ups or entire wings if current company's (imagine Cane Creek doing drivetrains) would require huge investment to get rolling to cover the needs of an entire region. How many wheels is weareone pumping out right now? Imagine if they were the only option what the lead times would be and how long it would take them to expand. The current surge in cycling could also be very temporary so expanding to big to fast could be the end for some.

It going to suck for bikes in 2021 until the surge dies down, but we'll get over it. It's not commencals fault or any other bike manufacturer that we're dealing with this issue. At least they've come right out and said it. I was going to order a TR in December but saw what was coming and held off. Unfortunately my new Rootdown ordered over a month ago is supposed to land in may but I'm not expecting it to be on time at this point, and it is what it is. I might not have a fork or drivetrain by the anyway with how things are going.

Just remember not to smash your derailleur this season, because you're not getting a new one.
  • 10 1
 On exchange rates: There was a spike in early 2020, but the exchange rates for taiwan dollar to AUD, and Euro have mostly normalized and are similar to 2019.
  • 2 0
 About the time they would have been putting orders in for products
  • 2 0
 If currency prices were the only issue, a bike that cost $3000 USD in December of 2019 would cost $3191 right now.

Obviously this oversimplifies things as brands aren't buying their bikes from Taiwan at the full MSRP that their selling them to consumers, but it gives an upper bound on how much of price differences can be reasonably be attributed to fluctuations in exchange rates.
  • 5 3
 The Federal Reserve (and central banks of many other 1st world countries) have been printing cash at an extraordinary rate this year to fund their short-sighted measures to prevent the spread of Covid. I think you should check the rates for 2019 before saying they're similar this year. 1 USD was almost 31 TWD on average during 2019, while it was less than 29.5 TWD during 2020. That's almost a 5% difference. The same could be said for the AUD and EUR. They were much stronger 18 months ago (when the orders were possibly being negotiated) than they are now. While Commencal could arguably have hedged better, I don't think they unique in this position. nor will they be the last bike manufacturer to go down this route.
  • 2 0
 @SmashySmashy: I said AUD and Euro. USD and CAD are under performing in 2020.
  • 5 1
 I'm trying really hard to be stressed out about all this, but somehow I just can't Big Grin
  • 1 0
 @SmashySmashy: bingo...
  • 2 4
 @jayacheess: If you only take the last calendar year, maybe. But that's a very limited window, since Covid has been a thing for almost all of that time. Look at the historical performance over the previous 2-5 year timespan.
  • 3 2
 @SmashySmashy: I did. AUD exchange rate was the same as it is now as far back as Dec 2018, It lost ground from 2017 and earlier, but that's obviously unrelated to covid.

The current Euro is only slightly off from it's price vs Taiwan dollar in 2018.

Exchange rates are unlikely to be a large part of the price change for Euro and AUD customers. I can certainly understanding shipping, parts sourcing, and other covid related costs, though.
  • 1 1
 @SmashySmashy: But if you operate a big business, you don't exchange money when you submit an order. Anyway not easy for sure, the changes in rates can make some big headaches.
  • 2 3
 @kusa: But you do hedge against price fluctuations by purchasing the currency, (or more likely) purchasing forward options on the currency so you can lock in profits. Which is arguably the bigger picture this discussion neglects and I was hoping to steer it towards. The Fed is still printing trillions of dollars, and the ECB, UK Treasury and Central Banks worldwide are following similar plans- with no end in sight. That kind of dilution of soverign currency cannot continue indefinitely. Not that anyone on PB cares in the slightest, but this is only the beginning of the biggest financial event (possibly ever, in terms of the number of people that will be affected). And the worst of the consequences could have been avoided if governments had resisted their panicked urges to 'do something', and instead taken a more considered approach (x lives now, compared to x^? lives in the following decade, as well as misery and a lifetime of unnecessary hardship for millions, if not billions).
  • 2 2
 @SmashySmashy: Sweden tried that and it failed. More people died than needed to, and the economy still took a hit. Turns out a pandemic is going to make people act differently and affect the economy, no matter how the government tries to frame the situation.
  • 2 4
 @jayacheess: Honestly (And I genuinely mean this), you could well be a nice guy but I find you about as enlightening and informed as a horse turd. It's exhausting having to come down to your level to respond. I wish you would educate yourself a bit more, and stop depending on your overly-simplistic understanding of things. It's like you have nothing more to contribute to an argument than a superficial prologue; and all the details and complexity of the main text has passed you by.
What about countries which had hard lockdowns, and yet have higher cases and deaths per capita than Sweden, such as France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Slovenia (@Primoz , hate to say I told you so) etc. You speak as though Sweden is an runaway outlier; It's not even among the worst countries in Europe.
As for whether the pandemic would affect the economy, in the strictest sense you're right. Global events affect economies- shock horror. But the damage being done by the lockdowns is worse than many effects of the virus. Sure, we prolong a few hundred, or thousand lives now, and give them an additional 6 months (A *very* generous estimate). Those people won't even be alive to see the real disaster we're all facing when the bill for all the various programs come due. And when that happens how many deaths will occur because the money that could have been used to keep them alive is being used to pay off the debt from Covid programs, or feed the families of the people who lost their job because of the lockdowns?
So, if anything has been tried and failed it's lockdowns by government mandate. They were vain attempts to control what cannot be controlled, only delayed. Australia and New Zealand may yet escape the worst of it because of their relative isolation and the manner they're treating everyone entering the country as a suspected case, but they too face the same fate as other countries; Again, the cost to their society and economy as a result of their totalitarian response may be greater than the disease.
Leave it to humanity, and in particular politicians, spurred on by cowards to take a bad situation and make it catastrophic.
It's so tragically true: The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
  • 3 1
 @SmashySmashy: "you could well be a nice guy but I find you about as enlightening and informed as a horse turd. It's exhausting having to come down to your level to respond. I wish you would educate yourself a bit more, and stop depending on your simplified perception of the truth. It's like you have nothing more to contribute to an argument than a superficial prologue;"

You're a massive right wing twat with a chip on your shoulder. You're wrong about pretty much everything, but you're desperate to prove otherwise. The smartest health experts in the world are advising on the measures being taken, and equally intelligent people have being weighing their advice with economic impacts and making policy decisions. Here in BC, Canada, there was a lot of balancing between economic and health outcomes that went in to policy making, and I'm sure it's similar elsewhere,

But YOU know better. You're the f*cking expert, and anyone who disagrees with you is someone who you have to dumb yourself down for. Get f*cked, you arrogant loser.
  • 1 2
 @jayacheess:
I'm not right-wing. The fact you would even conclude that (after what I'm sure was a very painful and difficult 0.02 seconds of wracking your default reference- The Great Encyclopedia-Propaganda) says more about you than it does about me.
You don't need to be an expert, although I have rather unique experiences which help cut through the BS.
If you engaged your gray matter a little and critically evaluated what you're saying before you said it, instead of repeating ad verbatim what you read/ heard elsewhere you might see the glaring holes in the information being communicated by/ to you as well.
  • 1 2
 @SmashySmashy: you're the one regurgitating right wing talking points and trying to pass them off as independent thought. If you're not right wing, you've managed to come to the same terrible conclusions as all their dumbass talking heads - which are, unfortunately, opposing viewpoints to the vast majority of experts and scientists who are attempting to address these issues. Do why should we listen to you, again? What are your qualifications other than being a shit talking anonymous a*shole on the internet?
  • 2 2
 @jayacheess: Enlighten me, which of my arguments are 'regurgitating right wing talking points'? All I said as that Sweden isn't the runaway outlier you make it out to be. It's patently false that "Sweden ... failed" because there are several countries in Europe alone with higher incidences of cases and deaths. It isn't even in the Top 20 worldwide. So don't foist your foolishness on the rest of us. And certainly don't pretend you are more knowledgeable than you are when you don't even bother to corroborate the most basic assumptions that underpin your entire argument.
  • 1 1
 @SmashySmashy: You made the argument that the world shouldn't have followed through with the shut downs because the economic damage will be worse than the disease.

I pointed out that Sweden attempted to follow this strategy and it didn't help protect their economy, while causing significant damage (Sweden's deaths per million is TEN TIMES Norway's). While they may not be the hardest hit overall, they could have significantly mitigated loss of life, and ended up in a similar place, economically.

What aren't you understanding about this? Use your gray matter, f*ck face.
  • 2 1
 @jayacheess:
Norway is 1 data point. And while it's a neighbour of Sweden's, and they have a lot in common the way the population is dispersed in Norway (primarily the coast- away from other major population centres) is likely to have had a big influence on the spread of the virus there.
What about all the other countries I mentioned that did have a lockdown and still have higher rates of infection and deaths? Can you honestly say the lockdowns work in the face of that data?
Of course Sweden's economy suffered. Everyone has suffered- that's kind of my point. But we would have suffered far less if reasonable measures had been implemented, and reasonable losses anticipated. It's very unlikely the people we're all working so hard to save will be around in 6 months anyway.
This vain attempt to prevent their deaths is as close to madness as ever I have witnessed. We're investing huge sums, for questionable gain (even on ethical grounds) and all that while curtailing the means to fund it all. That's no right wing talking point. That's the pure and simple truth.
  • 1 1
 @SmashySmashy:
There are data points from all over Europe. There are various outcomes based on cultural issues, and how early the virus arrived, but the experts agree that locking down was the best way to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Your interpretation of the data is not how those experts interpret it. So unless you can explain why you have some insight that they don't, I don't see the use in wasting time with you.
  • 2 2
 @jayacheess: Yes, I know there are data points from all over Europe- I've pointed them out to you already and so far you've failed to respond directly to my very simple question. How can you say the lockdowns work when there are several examples of countries (France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Slovenia) which have implemented lockdowns and yet have higher rates of cases and/ or deaths than Sweden, which has so far avoided strict, government-mandated measures? Even accounting for when the countries where the virus arrived first, should there have been a reduction in numbers below those of Sweden by now with all the measures they've subsequently taken? Because it hasn't happened. And I suspect you're unwilling to answer my questions because you know that to be the case.
"experts agree that locking down was the best way to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed". Experts would also agree that reducing the maximum speed an automobile can travel at to 10 kmph, or banning them from the roads altogether would reduce road deaths significantly. Do you understand the concept of a directed question? Can you see how hyper-focusing on one aspect of the equation like that prevents you from seeing all the other important factors and balancing them appropriately. Let's assume that it's a valid point though, and that approach was appropriate when the virus initially arrived (Even if the modelling that informed the predictions couldn't be trusted to predict the current time correctly). We've had months to prepare since. And yet the virus is just as present, and the lockdowns continue. It's almost as if we're just delaying the inevitable, and all those sacrifices were for very little to no gain. The WHO has even called for an end to the lockdowns:
www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/who-official-urges-world-leaders-to-stop-using-lockdowns-as-primary-virus-control-method/ar-BB19TBUo
"Your interpretation of the data is not how those experts interpret it." A fact I am very proud of, believe me. I've seen and worked with enough MDs to know all too well they make the *worst* statisticians. So, with that in mind let's go back to whether 'experts agree'. Well, some do. Others don't though, and many are simply quiet on the subject for fear of reprisals in the media, or being subject to disciplinary action by the national governing body. But since you're obviously enamored with medical professionals, here's one with a dissenting point of view, supported by appropriate numbers no less:
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dr-martin-feeley-young-and-healthy-majority-need-to-be-allowed-to-live-1.4362503
  • 1 2
 @jayacheess: I think I finally understand the depths of your ignorance, and complete dearth of logical and critical thinking skills. You think that because a country like Norway implemented a lockdown, their relatively low numbers are a direct result of that action. My argument that other countries that hace imlemented lockdowns have fared worse than Sweden completely passes you by because you're naively beholden to the idea that lockdowns mean lower numbers. You miss the part where, because there are countries that mandated lockdowns yet still have higher numbers than those that didn't means the lockdowns have little to no effect. The fact a country has low numbers has probably more to do with the location of it's urban centres and population distribution than whether or not it went into lockdown.
  • 1 2
 @SmashySmashy: MDs aren't the only experts making decisions about this situation. If you were someone worth listening to, you'd have the qualifications to back it up. Instead, you're on a mountain bike website with an anonymous profile, marked Afghanistan, calling me an idiot for agreeing with experts and disagreeing with you.

Realistically, if you replied to a comment during a civil discussion in person with this line:

"Honestly (And I genuinely mean this), you could well be a nice guy but I find you about as enlightening and informed as a horse turd. It's exhausting having to come down to your level to respond. I wish you would educate yourself a bit more, and stop depending on your overly-simplistic understanding of things. It's like you have nothing more to contribute to an argument than a superficial prologue; and all the details and complexity of the main text has passed you by."

Even if you WERE an expert and not just some guy who's read some things on the internet and decided he knows better than everyone else, that would still get you in to a fight pretty quickly.

I won't be replying to you again.
  • 1 2
 @jayacheess: The great thing about having a sound argument is that your qualifications don't feature in their evaluation; They stand up very well under scrutiny all on their own.
And one's opinions count for nothing unless you're willing to fight for them. It's also why I'm careful that they're as correct as I can make them. I don't want to get my head caved in over half-formed ideas and inaccuracies. Not that you would know anything about such things- All the tired opinions you've expressed that I've seen seem to belong to other people. You might want to check why pointing out that fact, and how it's perceived by me has got your panties in such a twist.
  • 1 2
 @SmashySmashy: "You might want to check why pointing out that fact, and how it's perceived by me has got your panties in such a twist." - Maybe the uncalled for insults. Just a thought.
  • 1 1
 @jayacheess: You either have a short memory, or a very selective one.
  • 1 1
 @SmashySmashy: You began with the insults, so yes, a very short memory or a very specific one.
  • 2 3
 @jayacheess: Maybe on this thread. And maybe you could try being a bit more original. Or open up to the possbility that everything you hear on the gogglebox is not necessarily true.
  • 3 0
 @SmashySmashy: @jayacheess: I think I speak for all upthread posters getting constant notifications in begging you please to take this to PMs if you want to continue talking at each other. You're not going to change the other's mind and we've long since stopped reading the replies.
  • 1 3
 @SmashySmashy: Where are you getting your information?
  • 8 2
 It’s brutal. Was going to buy a new Commemcal for both my wife and son. The wait times are insane and prices have jumped. There might be a massive surplus of stock come next November after people bail on waiting for their order.
  • 11 0
 buy canadian, you will save and ride your bike sooner
  • 7 0
 @pk71: at the shop right now. Bought him a 24” Norco Fluid FS. Awesome bike for the $
  • 4 0
 Commie prices jumped 20% for the UK 3 years ago when brexit referendum was announced, now this shit
  • 1 1
 Bail and shop where? Everyone buys the same stuff from SRAM and Shimano etc, you may get a frame more quickly but good luck getting the rest if Commencal can’t, that or buy something that has a much lower demand, e.g. not as good
  • 2 1
 @justanotherusername: The problem with Commencal is not the "when" but the "how much", for your industrial problems you cannot completely pass the costs on to the buyers, moreover it is also a bad publicity. The problem here is that Commencal (like many other brands) is not an industry, it does not manufacture anything, it is just a nice office with an organized warehouse and therefore it is completely at the mercy of the productions of others and of the oriental markets. If you choose a small brand, you should choose a brand that truly produces "in house".
  • 1 0
 @pk71: show me a brand that produces an entire bike in house?
  • 2 0
 @justanotherusername: Nicolai, MDE, Ancillotti, Pole, etc. and these are just the ones that come to my mind on the fly, obviously the components fail to produce them, but do you really believe the story that Fox or SRAM can't deliver? and then there are only Fox and SRAM? EXT, Formula, INGRID, Intent, Trickstuff, etc. etc. but you have as many as you find if you search.
The game they are playing now is "squeeze the cow to the last drop of milk" they want to raise prices to maximize profits, they know very well this is a golden opportunity for their coffers.
  • 1 0
 @pk71: As I said, a company that makes the whole bike - not just the frame.

You mention trickstuff - they just closed down for 3 months to catch up on a 6 month backlog.

Do I believe the delays are there? I know they are, I don’t manufacture in the industry but I do manufacture and have come to know some that are involved over the years, believe what you like but I know a company waiting 6 months for pedals from the manufacturer.

The shipment costs are also true - trebling of container costs, huge delays.

The industry is swamped - ask anyone actually involved.
  • 1 0
 @justanotherusername:
The industry is in chaos because the industry in our "world" no longer exists.
Western industry is short-lived (and so do we) if they don't change course and go back to real production.
We've wanted cell phones and clean clothes until now, but now those who broke their backs for us are asking for the bill, and also quite salty.
  • 1 0
 @pk71: So you have no experience or fact to back up your claim about the issues facing the bike industry being ‘fake’ so you just move onto taking generally about the complete re-writing of the global supply chain?

Out of interest. How are you helping achieve that? I co-own a manufacturing business in the UK, we make a UK product and sell worldwide, pay fair wages and make a product that lasts while turning an acceptable profit.

If we stopped selling outside of the UK, we would have to sack most of the staff and drop 2/3rds of our work - how does make local sound to you then - I’m living it.
  • 1 0
 @justanotherusername: I always try to buy from producers and not resellers, of any nation, I don't care if the Italians, Europeans or Senegalese.
What I meant is that Western industry, and by industry I mean Industry, not manufacturing, over the years, chasing only and exclusively the maximum portfolios, has increasingly turned to Asian productions. Now the Asians have the power.
It doesn't matter who has the money, it counts who works, who has the factories, who has the power to make you eat or fast.

P.S. congratulations for your company which, as you say, produces by making people work and guaranteeing a fair profit. I would be curious to know what you produce.
  • 1 0
 @pk71: It’s just not that simple though - we have distributors in the USA, Australia, Canada who re-sell our goods and we make some parts for others for their own product - in that way we are no different at all to Asia.

Who had ‘power’ is a different argument but this is a global world, we can’t all make product to sell, some business must exist simply to resell and provide service, so if not Asia it must be somewhere.

I don’t agree that in Europe and the west more generally we have moved from manufacturing but in a global world someone needs to make the goods we use and having most of those manufacturers in one place just makes sense - and for the bike industry that’s Taiwan.
  • 1 0
 *I don’t disagree.

Anyway, I think we actually mostly agree with each other, I’m just not sure the task is easy to solve or would be good for the customer - look into the bike industry and just how much is made, assemble and packed from Taiwan and you will see how hard it would be to unpick and potentially how expensive for the customer.
  • 8 0
 Canyon have put up there prices twice already this year. The Stitched 360 went from £799 > £999 and is now £1099
  • 4 0
 Hoping the Clash is worth the wait. Ordered Beginning of October and was expected to be delivered in November at that time. Commencal USA called me personally to explain the situation and tell me that I would have to be waiting longer for the bike. Thought that customer service was top notch, going to stick it out and see what happens.
  • 4 0
 Well these long leadtime will increase drasticly the life time of "new" standard...

I just imagine the discussion:
Marketing manager: - Guys we need to drop a new BB standard the previous one is one year old
Production manager: - we can't we haven't delivered the prévious standard...
  • 13 10
 I know I'm gonna sound like the old dude on the street corner, clutching at a bible as the storm threatens overhead. But never-the-less:
I don't mean to be alarmist, or incendiary, but this is only a symptom of the beginning of the wider implications for society of the measures to prevent the spread of Covid. Anyone who has had to save hard to buy a new bike should review their priorities- put the money away instead. If at all possible invest in precious metals. Because the world economy could well be about to go pop! and with it the supply chains we all depend on could be thrown into disarray. Prepare for shortages of necessities, and not just luxuries. Actual necessities you depend on, like food. Be sensible, and hold off until the world rights itself.
  • 1 2
 Well said, I think most people have a bias in that they feel things will be returning to normal soon enough. We've been suffering but there's light at the end of the tunnel essentially. But the amount of money we've printed here in the US is insane. This is only the beginning and we'll probably look back on these times as the "good old days" relative to where we'll be. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. Worrying about a one year wait time on your new mtb will be the least of your concerns in the coming times.
  • 2 2
 Vaccine already being distributed. Doomsay away and stall the economy further though.
  • 1 3
 @DylanH93: Downvoted by accident. The numbers coming out of the US are almost terrifying, in terms of the bifurcation of the economy, and how the current irrational performance of the stock market is somehow a good thing. It's being used as a smoke screen to obfuscate the truth we can see on any street: Millions of Americans are out of work and unable to pay their bills, property prices (especially commercial real estate) are a complete fiction and speculation on the markets has reached ridiculous levels. The fall is coming, and with the distance we'll be dropping it's going to hurt more than anything we've experienced before. I'm no 'prepper' but I believe in taking reasonable steps to address probable risks. I've set aside as much as I can in precious metals, and begun stocking up on canned goods, because what awaits us doesn't look good. At all.
  • 6 0
 If raw material prices go up, maybe they should start to make their bikes lighter Wink
  • 11 6
 it's ok we just need to produce our own.. oh wait not allowed to work.
  • 7 1
 Is your bike factory a gym or restaurant? Cuz factories are definitely open.
  • 3 1
 You can do anything you want. You just might not be following certain laws.
  • 10 0
 It's simple, you just have to be as big as Amazon or Walmart then you can continue on like normal. These big companies don't spread covid unlike the disgusting small business owners. Maybe in the future we could all be so lucky as to work in giant Amazon mega factories, it could be super fun!
  • 3 2
 I guess the champagne showers will stop then, operating tax fluid in Andorra mustn’t be such an a blast these days. Celebrate the good times and bank the cash but when the good times stop, pass the loss of cream on immediately to the customer, with interest, don’t worry, they will understand.
  • 2 0
 Tin. Foil. Hat.
  • 1 0
 So people think that running a brand it’s easy,it’s normal to pay more in these troubled times ,think of the joy the videos make you ,it’s not easy in this days for all the brands,money just stopped,so just ride what you got and be happy
  • 1 0
 I’ve been waiting for my propain since September and I’ve just been told it’s going to take longer yet they still can’t give me a date! I’ve spent £3,500 on a bike and I’m not sure to cancel the order or just hold on since I can’t get hold of any of anything else anyway ???????????? bloody Covid sucks or at least all the people taking up mtb for a year does!
  • 1 0
 Get your $ back while you can.
  • 1 0
 Just thought that I would share my experience here... I read this article 3 days ago and had a heart attack... I bought a Commencal Meta Am in October and was expecting it to arrive in March. When I saw this article I figured I'd be lucky to see it in 2021. Literally the next day, I got a call from the Golden headquarters that the bike had arrived 3 months earlier than expected! I had to order ridewrap today because I thought the bike wouldn't be here until March! So my moral is if you are waiting for a Commencal, it should still be here on time! Lefthand OHV here I come!.... Once the snow melts....
  • 2 0
 That's really sad news Frown
I was told my 2021 TR would ship in January but now after reading this my hopes arent that high anymore.
  • 1 0
 Starting 2020 I got myself an Meta TR29 2019 Frame. Love it. Can wait for this pandemic to end and don t have to pay the corona-fee for an upgrade. Lucky me
  • 2 0
 Don't forget Brexit, that will also push UK prices up and supply down. Happy days
  • 1 0
 I picked up my meta for £1600 in 2016, won't see deals like that again, thankfully it was a pretty progressive frame so still holds its own.
  • 1 0
 I don't get what the meaning Fstarck is? Surely it's supposed to say something else? Maybe sensorship is the theme for 2021. I miss the 90's so much.
  • 1 0
 Man! I got in just under the wire buying my new Commencal. Took delivery late November.
  • 2 0
 Has anyone found a link as to where you can buy those socks
  • 2 0
 Look around for northwave Covid socks
  • 2 0
 on luxa website
  • 1 0
 @Grononosse: thank you
  • 2 0
 Sell more frames so people can build them.
  • 1 0
 Looking forward to being able to afford a clash
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