The end of 2020 means that it's time for us to make some questionable predictions for the coming year that may or may not pan out. Below, the Pinkbike editors look into their crystal balls, read the tea leaves, or maybe just take a wild guess at what 2021 might hold.
What do you think - are we out to lunch, or do any of our predictions make sense?
Mike Kazimer's Predictions
1. More mullets and fewer 27.5” bikes. I’d imagine we won’t see that many dedicated 27.5” bikes released in 2021. There will be plenty of bikes launched with 29" wheels front and rear, but we'll also see more mixed wheel size bikes hit the market running a 29" / 27.5" combo. That smaller rear wheel helps give shorter riders more butt to tire clearance, and lets marketers keep using the word 'playful' in their ad copy, while the bigger front wheel allows for better rollover and traction.
2. Updated Shimano Saint group. Shimano updated XTR, XT, SLX, and Deore over the last couple of years, which means Saint is up next. Hopefully. We saw a
prototype derailleur floating around at the tail end of the World Cup DH season, so something is clearly in the works.
Will it be a DH-only groupset, designed around a 7-speed cassette, or will there be options for riders who want to run a wider gearing range? Only time will tell.
3. New Trek Session. There have been rumblings about a new Session in the works, and considering the current version last received an update over three years ago, the timing makes sense. I'd imagine it would get a little longer - the reach on an XL is only 461mm - but will we see more than just the geo get tweaked? Maybe a design that doesn't look like a Session?
4. Declining DH bike sales. Speaking of downhill bikes, riding one is about as fun as it gets, and we're planning on reviewing a whole bunch of them once the lifts open back up for bikes in 2021. But when it comes to justifying owning one, that's harder than ever, especially for riders that don't have any plans of racing. Today's enduro bikes can get riders safely down most tracks, and still be pedaled around on the days the shuttle truck is out of gas and the lifts aren't running.
There's also the fact that we're seeing more riders start peeking over into the electric world, and I have a feeling that those burly eMTBs are cannibalizing some potential DH bike sales.
Brian Park's Predictions
1. I'm still feeling pretty confident that bike sales will stay strong through 2021. Between the boom of individualist sports and some pent up demand, I see availability issues continuing through at least Q1 and Q2. I don't think we'll hear the word "closeout" until the fall of 2022.
I also think small, domestic, on-demand manufacturers will grow this coming year thanks to all the shortages through traditional overseas channels.
2. Towards the end of 2021, I suspect we'll see some more innovation and new stuff. Everyone was focused on production and smoothing disruption in 2020.
3. SRAM will answer back. For quite a few years SRAM enjoyed entry-level drivetrain supremacy on the OE side, but this year Shimano's Deore and SLX have changed all that. It's unlikely that SRAM will let Shimano eat their lunch like this for long, and I'm sure they've been working hard on things. AXS was launched nearly two years ago, so it seems a safe bet that they've been working to drop that technology into their lower-priced offerings. We took a look at their cable-pulling wireless patent last month, but that seems like a stop-gap at best—maybe a cheap way to extend wireless down to the NX level without having to redo the whole drivetrain.
To truly take advantage of the AXS system, it'll require a redesign of the existing lineup and I'm predicting we'll see it at least down to the GX level in 2021. Then again, I thought that AXS suspension would land this year, so my track record in predicting SRAM is not great. Oh, and speaking of SRAM, is 2021 the year they take advantage of UDH?
4. Racing will not proceed as it's scheduled today, and at least a few of the tradeshows currently on the calendar will get postponed or canceled. Not exactly the boldest prediction, I know. So here's one— at least one tradeshow organization will run into financial trouble in 2021.
5. A lot of marketing is going to be lame in 2021. Everyone is selling everything they have right now, so product marketing and sports marketing will be down next year. The smart brands know they need to set themselves up for the long-term while there's money flowing into the sport, so they'll spend on R&D and brand marketing instead. But while the best brands will lift and inspire all the new riders who are taking up the sport to take them from fans of MTB to actual mountain bikers, the vast majority will go "okay, non-endemic audience equals condescending, over-the-top messaging—we know how to do that."
There will be a lot of feel-good stuff and lots of B-level trail bike "films" with grandiose voiceovers, while the most talented riders in the sport will struggle to get support for more ambitious projects. More really good riders will be forced to vlog about their parts sponsors.
6. Aaron Gwin gets back on the pointy end of the podium in 2021.
7. Slopestyle competitions will continue their slide into irrelevance. It's bittersweet, but did anyone miss them this year? To be honest, I think this one is a good thing because we should get more Matt MacDuff videos and Semenuk-style videos from the hugely talented crop of slopestyle riders instead. At our core, all we really want to see out of slopestyle is cool shit on bikes, and the competition aspect of slopestyle was always largely spectacle anyway. This way we can see creative stuff, on more creative courses, from riders who may or may not thrive under the pressure of competition.
Matt Wragg's Predictions
1. The Pandemic will change sponsorship deals. I know of at least one high profile downhiller that prefers to let his racing do the talking but who has found himself with a more exciting off-season than he hoped for. In these troubled times, it's a question of value. Without races for him to win this year, his usual output simply wasn’t enough to justify his racing salary, and facing a potentially troubled 2021 that left the brand staring down the barrel of a second year of massive investment with potentially little return.
This is a trend that has been increasing in recent years; there are very few riders who can get away with just being pure racers, and it goes back to that ole selling bikes nuts again. Brands are looking for riders who can help them sell bikes away from the racetrack and a year without much racing will have helped sharpen their focus on who is giving them bang for their bucks, and who isn’t.
Outside cycling,
Tracksmith maybe showed the way. They took on two new athletes this year, Mary Cain and Nick Willis, but rather than put them on standard athlete contracts they were taken on as employees with well-defined remits for the company. Yes, they will have time and space to continue to compete at a high level, but regardless of what happens on the track, their value to the company will be unequivocal and I think that kind of guaranteed return on investment will start to look more and more attractive.
2. We'll see more e-bikes in 2021, with this winter feeling like a watershed moment for them. If you follow social media, surely you'll have seen more and more racers and riders embracing the eebs (I think I’m too old to say that word in public) and breaking down the stigma attached to them. Many riders who were skeptical a few years ago are letting go of the “it’s cheating” nonsense and admitting that regardless of how you want to classify an e-bike, that they’re fun as shit. I think seeing a rider like Kade Edwards describing it as his favourite bike is incredibly powerful, and it’s hard to see all those “he’s only saying that because he needs a paycheck” arguments lodged against him. Of course, more e-bikes getting sold will only exacerbate the sales disparity between e-bikes and regular bikes, but if we’re having fun, who cares?
Mike Levy's Predictions
1. Wheels will continue to be round in 2021, and your current mountain bike will continue to work just fine. Actually, better than fine if it was made within the last couple of years... This is handy because we'll also still see a relatively limited number of new bikes being available on showroom floors thanks to the pandemic messing with production cycles. And with the far (and near) future uncertain in a way that no one understands, it's a very scary time to be making the kinds of business decisions that could boom or bust a brand.
I suspect there will be plenty of well-founded caution when it comes to orders and manufacturing from Asia, which means fewer of the normal options consumers are used to seeing on showroom floors.
That'll cause two things to happen to bike sales in 2021. First, the PB Buy & Sell will continue to be on fire; it's a seller's market for anything with two wheels, decent suspension, and modern geometry, even if it's a season or two old. Secondly, if Giant, Specialized, Trek, or any other large companies can't fill your local shop's need to sell bikes, I foresee smaller, versatile brands with more flexible manufacturing schedules (and therefore bikes available to sell) to swoop in.
2. Onshore manufacturing will slowly grow, spurred on by consumer demand and the inflexibility of traditional production and shipping. Here's the thing: we'll always value our outside time, no matter how we choose to spend it, and it seems like current events have only reminded everyone of that. In other words, the sport is growing, pandemic or not. Riders new and old are looking for bikes but all we're hearing is that ''
It'll be at least a few more months...''
With all the unpredictability of the past year, I suspect that a few small to mid-sized brands were looking into onshore manufacturing many months ago. If it works cost-wise, that'd provide them with more control of their products and timelines in an uncertain future. Not only that, forward-thinking manufacturing methods could reduce some of the costs usually associated with onshore production. Okay, maybe a bit optimistic, but who knows?
Shimano responds. But so does SRAM. Confusing, I know, but let me lay it out as I see it. SRAM's wireless AXS stuff has made Shimano's wired Di2 drivetrain look a bit Tandy TRS 80 versus iPhone 27. Then again, Di2 was already five years old when AXS came out in 2019, so I wouldn't be surprised if Japan debuted a new battery-powered drivetrain of their own to go up against it. Hopefully it doesn't have any annoying cables.
If you've read any review of any new Shimano drivetrain, you might know that it lets you shift under pedaling loads like an absolute meathead. That means a bit less thinking and a bit more power to the ground, and it's thanks to that Hyperglide+ stuff, which is essentially just how the chainplates and cassette teeth are shaped and how they mesh together. Shimano first put it to use on their latest XTR stuff, of course, but you'll also find it on their no-brainer, do everything, bargain of the year drivetrain, otherwise known as Deore, and it's shaded SRAM's entry-level options. But that's how this works; someone makes something better, and then someone else makes something betterer than that. I think we'll see SRAM be that someone in the future.
Categorizing bikes become even more pointless, but we'll still try to do it in 2021. The niches of our sport will always require niche machinery - downhill, cross-country race, fat bikes, and so on aren't going anywhere - but slotting them into orderly categories is a bit pedantic given how well rounded the modern ''mountain bike'' is becoming. I mean, what else do you call the Norco Optic, Ibis Mojo, Stumpy EVO and REGMO, Giant's Trance X, and many others? As my buddy Alan pointed out, everything's a mountain bike now.
This makes me feel a bit silly every time I categorize a bike I'm reviewing, but that's how we need to do it sometimes, especially when talking comparisons. Putting bikes into categories makes them easier for us to talk about and judge; just imagine how confusing the sales floor would be if you rang up your LBS looking for a new ride and the sales guys replied with, ''
You looking for a Demo or a Supercaliber?'' So yeah, sometimes it makes sense to call something a something.
What else will we see in the coming year? If there ends up being a race season in 2021, the greatest male downhiller of all time,
Greg Minnaar, will win his 23rd (and maybe 24th?) World Cup. My local shop tells me they sell more high-end e-bikes than they do high-end mountain bikes, and
that gap will continue to grow regardless of how you or I feel about battery-powered bicycles. Tradeshows in 2021? Definitely not in North America, but
maybe in Europe. Pinkbike in 2021? Last year was stuffed full of Field Tests, the Pinkbike Academy, Explainers videos, The Privateer, and a bunch of original content, but expect that to expand even further over the next twelve months.
While we're all hoping that the coming twelve months is brighter and safer for everyone than the previous year, it'd be foolish to say that the wider future is anything but unstable. Zooming in on our little sport, the Pinkbike crystal ball is showing hazy images of more e-bikes but fewer downhill bikes, a calendar of World Cup racing that's in question, and empty shop floors but very busy trails.
What do you think is in store for mountain biking in 2021?
Biggest race of the year
180 degrees of knobs and 180 degree of slick.
-Greg Lamond
Riding a low-power dirtbike isn’t about cheating anyone else.. it’s about cheating yourself. @mattwragg
But humans always want more, more more and I don't want mtb to become too much of a technical jerkoff.
Also, if hikers, runners and horse riders dont need a motor then why do mtbers? Makes thing shitty for trail access. Also, mtb doesnt have to always be some sort of adrenaline rush, which is what ebiking is enhancing
I use the following mantra when riding to push myself to go faster: ‘ride like you have an emtb on your trail’
I've also heard that tuning them to those speeds have legal repercussions in some European countries? I also find it hard to believe that there are troves of ebikes flying around at 40km.
Legal repercussion, yes..in theory. In practice, in 99.9999% of cases, no one gets caught. Do you think mountain police or police have nothing better to do then follow cyclists to see which one tunned up their electric bike?
And we are at the edge of Europe(EU); minor braking the rules or the law is a national sport. Then again, when ppl don't respect the law in the Dolomites, what claims one can make for the rule of law in the Carpathians were e-bikes are the last of the problems. The authorities barely notify themselves for poaching, 4x4 off-road riding(I even encounter such a convoy on a bike specific trail, barely stopping without getting on the first car's hood), moto riding on national parks and foot-trails and the locals couldn't care less as they are money to be made from this type of tourists that come and do things that aren't allowed in their countries. And the local authorities, pretend to no see this type of activities. And, if they don't care about this type of activities that brake the law, they for sure don't even register on their radars that a group of guys on big powerfull electrics might have them tunned, as they fly up-the-hill too fast for the speed limit on these bikes.
In only one case, from what I know, the police acknowledged that the owner of an e-bike have had it tunned but, he was already dead(he was going with 50 km/h, in the capital city's biggest boulevards, when he accidentally hit the kerb and that projected him head first in a concrete pole) so, nothing actually happened. I'm telling you, no authorities care about this; not in UK, where you can see Rob Warner bragging on gmbn channel on how fast he is going to the pub on his (mountain)e-bike(35 or 40 miles per hour, I don't remember exactly), when in Dolomites, e-bike riders think the foot and natural trails are their own property and ride their electrics like they've stole them, disregarding hikers and other trail users or in my country where authorities don't even compute that such offenses exists.
Maybe in US, people tend to be more fearfull about this type of situations but, as they aren't any general and simple ways of checking ones e-bike for tunning, the situation can become rapidly as it is here.
And congraz for your SL. I'm considering an Orbea Rise but, as they are sold out for 2021, I do plan to wait and see what new lightweight models from other brands will appear this year. Cheers!
m.pinkbike.com/photo/19550572
You WILL , get an e bike at some point when your body refuses to take instructions from your mind . ????
The first and final point is the attitude of the rider, with or without motor. A butthole has been one without bike. Observe the manners of some of the „cool“ crowd at Whistler, Saalbach or wherever. If you put your bias aside,you will see stupidity in equal percentages on all sides of the isle.
As an added thought (yeah, I am old!):
Since the mid-eighties there have been those that saw looming the end of the (mtbiking) world when new inventions were made. The end never came and will not come - I guarantee!
I'm waiting for the E version of the Peloton before I buy one.
I think riders on pinkbike (including myself) tend to assume everybody who rides eats sleeps and breathes bikes like we do.
I still really enjoy riding my regular bike(s) and ride them the most (so much fun jumping), but like having the option of riding my EMTB, as I can ride it even when not feeling like killing myself pedalling like a mad man. Also my EMTB is real nice for those really long steep vertical climbs as I live near a lot of big mountains.
Yeah man. That’s exactly how I feel when I pass someone who’s walking while I’m driving my car. Total superiority over them because they’re using their legs... how quaint. Feeds my god complex nicely.
PS I was just switching the pansie around someone else used to call ebikers. I have a lot of respect for other people, and have no problem with whatever they ride. Life is short and everyone should be able to try and enjoy life while we are here. Ride on everyone...
That’s the sound of sarcasm going right over your head....
The thing that always gets me, though, is how so many people assume that only lazy people ride them. It’s obvious they’ve never ridden one when they say that. For any real mountain biker, the point of an ebike is to go farther, faster. The one time I rode one, my quads cramped after going 4x further than I normally ride. My quads have never cramped on me while riding. I’m not a super athlete—it just shows that I was having so much fun that I was able to push myself harder than on my regular steed. Keep an open mind and maybe even try one out. Either way, they’re here to stay.
As far as I know, for a while the people w/o indoor plumbing railed on the pansies that had an indoor toilet. Until, one day in the midst or winter, they were invited somewhere, used the hated ceramic bowl and discovered that they didn’t have to rush to take a crap w/o freezing half to death...
I found this a bit of a depressing read, disrupted racing, racers not getting payed, loads of mullet bikes, more ebikes... I hope they are wrong too!
As for e-bikes, I agree it's a shame. The bicycle is one of the best inventions of all time largely because it 100% human powered, but add a motor and you suddenly have...something else. Pedal assist - I don't care. What's the point (maybe a legal grey area between cycle and motorbike which manufacturers are trying to exploit?). Just stick a thumb throttle on it and call it what it really is instead of trying to disguise it as a bicycle. They'll still sell.
Biggest downside from the boom in sales, is the number of inexperienced or new riders who are buying e-bikes, because it seems to me that it correlates to an increase in riders with poor trail etiquette and a bad attitude.
Shame.
However, I’d be lying if I said it isn’t extremely gratifying to pass someone on an ebike. A boat load of extra watts doesn’t turn a novice into a superhero. =p
I can't believe that nonsense
Dual slalom on the other hand - sign me up!
And my one question that I’ve never get an answer to from anyone regarding electrical transport for the masses. Where’s all the electricity going to come form?
Yeah, the "batteries are killing rainforests" propaganda is being shoved hard right now without consideration to the facts that
1.) the most effective way to support development of better technologies is to buy the current best option and ask how/where it's sourced and manufactured, and
2.) electric stuff are still way better (both in terms of manufacturing and lifetime impact) than the petrol versions, EVEN IF it's not powered 100% with renewable energy.
Sure, ebikes have a lot higher environmental impact than regular bikes. But it's funny how people are shitting ebikes for their environmental impact while they are buying carbon bikes in plastic packaging, driving to the trailhead and doing shuttle laps with their petrol powered cars, and some are even riding moto and flying thousands of kilometers a year for good measure.
Contrary to popular belief, ebikes are not a sport of the lazy, its THE way to save a lot of f*cking emmissions and damage to the planet while still moving, and turning any mountain into a bike-park without extensive infrastructure.
anyways thats how i look at it
Edit: there's significant R&D being dumped into solid-state magnesium batteries which could solve a lot of environmental corncerns in production and end of life phase.
Centralized generation (power plant, even if it's coal burning) is always better than localized generation (car engine).
Such a forward thinking city,
Compare USA silicone valley to China silicone valley and one is 2020 and the other stuck in the dark ages!
Not saying all of China is clean but Shenzhen is an example of what can be achieved.
The city has greenery everywhere, its incredible what they have done to be greener.
Not everyone is entitled to a car, there is a lottery each year for potential new car owners.
Or San Fran... the home of 10mpg automatic fuel guzzlers.
can we get an article explaining the current economics of downhill? why is it that year after year I see all this negative talk around sales and yet its the segment of the sport seeing some of the most exciting development with regards to new bikes and tech every year? I hear the "F1 of mountain biking" saying thrown around a lot but I wanna see some numbers - is it alive and well? is it "dying"? how does it actually work? @mikekazimer
What I want to say is, that DH bikes will exist, but they will become something of a special tool for the best only. Really high end, really pimped, but only for the best of the best which make the most out of them.
Everyone else will be fine with Enduro bikes.
i understand the general concepts but i want more details!
Just give us the electric V10 Cathro asked for a few weeks back..
Also mullet bikes are going to the the 27.5+ gimmick of 2021.
Ebikes will have a rollerblade like boom. Lots of new people in the sport which is good for bike companies but bad for everyone else.
I'm excited about ebikes growing into mainstream. Everyone who's ridden them raves how fun they are. Including just about all the pros who can whipe the floor with the keyboard warriors here. I haven't given one a emtb a go yet, but I've had an ebike commuter/dad rig for the last two years and I love the damn thing. Ten mile commute is a breeze now, and just about all the errands in the neighborhood have been replaced by the ebike. The notion of getting more runs, in the same amount of time is incredibly appealing honestly, and we have like 3 different non-lift bike parks around here where ebikes would be perfect. Might start saving my pennies.
I also think that given Shimano and srams supply chain issues, we are all going to hear a lot more about TRP, Microshift, Sunrace, Box etc. Wouldnt be surprised if even some big brands are looking at them to cover some bases this year. Maybe that will be the push they need to become real competitors in that space. How cool would it be to have more than two complete drivetrain options that can actually compete with the big 2?
Nor the weee, Rohs, REACH, EU battery directive compliance, list of exemptions applied for.
Who knows if their bluetooth device has regional clearance before buying it and if its been to a test house for RF testing... or did it suffer for the 2020 BLE bug (only Nordic devices didnt suffer and that's around 65%of the market).
What about COO and conflict minerals!
I sound like our materials expert now every time we want to make a slight product change and we have to do an EIA report when he starts going on!
Imagine the session we’ll stay similar
P.S. I'll put $250 on Kaz...
Spesh have bought up 3 yrs worth of build slots with a particular factory that a brand I work with uses, thereby squeezing out the little guy.
Today's enduro bikes can be limped down the hardest trails by expert riders with only slight tracks of shit being detectable in their underwear, and still be pedaled around by trail clones in turquoise blue helmets within 500 meters of overcrowded trailheads that everyone drove 45+minutes to arrive at!
There's also the fact that that Pinkbike & their corporate partners have a raging, unbridled erection for e-bikes and they are looking for each & every opportunity to cram e-bikes down customers throats to the behest of their corporate partners.
www.instagram.com/p/CJgXvFyAxEL/?igshid=mj1mh2kqj0hc
E bikes aren’t all that bad
Slope style can fade away
Fest series will reign !!!
I hope racing comes back