After 44 stages in 7 races on 3 continents, it's all going to come down to one day of racing in the Swiss Alps to decide the fastest enduro racer in the world. While Isabeau Courdurier has already wrapped up her overall in emphatic style, the men's race remains wide open with Nicolai and Hill currently the hot favourites. Let's crunch some numbers and see who needs to do what to win the title.Elite Men:
Mathematically, anyone down to Remi Gauvin could still win the EWS overall with a perfect weekend but it would require disasters for the two front runners, Sam Hill and Florian Nicolai. Barring race-ending mechanicals or crashes, it's likely that one of these two men will lift the overall crown on Saturday.
At the moment, Sam Hill has 2740 points while Nicolai sits 60 ahead on 2800. The form is probably with Sam Hill, who finished 2nd in Whistler and Northstar (compared to Nicolai's 9th and 14th) but Nicolai will be in more familiar terrain in the high Alps and can definitely expect a good result.
One thing to note is that Nicolai must end the season on more points than Sam. If they tie then Sam will take the title as he will have had the best result at the final round, which is how the title is decided according to Section 9.1 of the EWS rulebook.
If neither rider wins the Queen stage, here's the equation:
· If Hill finishes 1st, Nicolai must finish 2nd
· If Hill finishes 2nd, Nicolai must finish at least 4th
· If Hill finishes 3rd, Nicolai must finish at least 7th
· If Hill finishes 4th or lower, Nicolai must finish within 5 positions of him.
There's one curveball that Zermatt could throw into the mix though, the Queen stage. If either rider wins this they will be granted a bonus 40 points in the overall. Zermatt's Queen stage is the very last one of the race so we won't know who was won the overall until the very last rider of the weekend. Neither rider has won a Queen Stage all year but given it could happen, here are the updated sums:
Other competitions:Elite Women
If Hill wins the Queen Stage:
· If Hill finishes 1st, Nicolai cannot win
· If Hill finishes 2nd, Nicolai must win
· If Hill finishes 3rd, Nicolai must finish 2nd or 1st.
· If Hill finishes 4th or lower, Nicolai must finish within 1 position of him.
If Nicolai wins the Queen Stage:
· If Hill finishes 1st, Nicolai must finish at least 3rd
· If Hill finishes 2nd, Nicolai must finish at least 8th
· If Hill finishes 3rd, Nicolai must finish at least 11th
· If Hill finishes 4th or lower, Nicolai must finish within 9 positions of him.
Courdurier already has her title sewn up and now has her eyes set on completing a perfect season. Who would bet against her now?Under 21 Men
It's pretty much all sewn up for Antoine Vidal in the Under 21 men's race. The only way he loses now is if he scores no points for the weekend and New Zealand's Brady Stone wins the race and the Queen Stage.Under 21 Women
Canada's Lucy Schick is most likely to take the title in Zermatt this weekend but can still be beaten by Ireland's Leah Maunsell. A sixth-place will guarantee the North American the title but if Leah doesn't win then Lucy will also win it by default.