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Bike Boom Shows Signs of Slowing for Shimano & Thule

Apr 26, 2022 at 13:56
by Alicia Leggett  
Shimano Deore on Vancouver s North Shore 2020

Companies across the bike industry have continued to report growth, but not nearly as much as they've reported since the start of the pandemic. Last month's Revenue Round Up, which aggregated 2021 Q4 reports from several companies throughout the industry, included several instances of sales flattening toward the end of 2021, despite record growth throughout the year as a whole. Shimano today released its Summary of Financial Reports, which stated that the industry's rapid growth may have started to level in the first few months of this year.

bigquotesThe global cycling boom showed signs of cooling down, with market inventories of entry-class and middle-class bicycles approaching appropriate levels, while demand centering around high-end class bicycles remained high.

In the European market, demand for bicycles and bicycle-related products remained firm as governments continued their policies to promote bicycles in response to growing environmental awareness. While demand for e-bikes remained strong, market inventories of entry-level and middle-class bicycles approached appropriate levels.

In the North American market, demand for bicycles remained firm and market inventories, centering around entry-class and middle-class bicycles, recovered to appropriate levels.

In the Asian and South and Central American markets, the cycling boom cooled off, and market inventories of entry-class bicycles remained at a slightly higher level.

In the Japanese market, while market inventories of road bikes remained at a low level due to steady demand for sport bikes, retail sales of community bicycles were sluggish, resulting in market inventories remaining at a higher level.

Under these market conditions, order-taking was brisk for a wide range of products, including the high-end models for road bikes, DURA-ACE and ULTEGRA, and sport E-BIKE components, SHIMANO STEPS series.
Shimano Summary of Financial Reports, 2022 Q1

The components giant reported a 13.9% increase in bike segment sales to 118,176 million yen ($928 million USD), and operating income increased 17% to 32,455 million yen ($255 million USD). A year ago, the company reported a 64.4% increase in Q1 net sales over a turbulent (but ultimately profitable) 2020.

It appears that many of the bike boom riders, for whom biking (not necessarily mountain biking) replaced the gym or public transit, have begun to return to their previous habits, or at least the conversion to biking has slowed or stopped. Inventories are restabilizing for entry- and mid-level bikes and bike components. Of course, that isn't much assurance to those who are still waiting on their high-end mountain bike orders, but it's a promising sign that the mad scramble for any and all bike parts is becoming less severe, and we may see manufacturers able to concentrate more resources on catching up with high-end demand.

Thule Helium

Thule reported a 13.5% organic growth in net sales in Q1 to 3,034 million SEK ($308 million USD) compared to the previous year, adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations, which sounds like quite a bit until we consider that net sales increased 32.7% in the 2021 financial year to 10,386 million SEK ($1,054 million USD) compared with 2020, so the rapid growth does appear to be slowing quite a bit. We expect to see those numbers pick up a bit in Q2 and Q3 as temperatures increase in the Northen Hemisphere, but the company would be hard-pressed to keep up with its rate of growth in the record-smashing 2021.

Year-over-year net sales increased 26.8% in the Americas and 8.8% in Europe and the rest of the world after currency adjustment. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Thule stopped selling to Russia and Belarus, and naturally has not been selling in Ukraine at the moment, though those countries make up less than 1% of the company's sales.

Alongside the obvious and tragic human cost of the war, it's unsurprising that consumption of recreational goods is down, particularly in Europe and somewhat in North America, where concern about inflation and rising material prices may impact consumer behaviors.

Author Info:
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Member since Jun 19, 2015
745 articles

  • 344 2
 So now the prices will start dropping back to normal... right?
  • 311 0
 *nervous laughter* RIGHT??
  • 179 3
 Sure, just like housing and gas prices!
  • 101 21
 The only way prices are going to get back to normal is a high level of oversupply and competition. When the shelves and warehouses are full of competing parts that need to be shifted prices have to come down. That's not going to happen for a couple of years at best. The big issue now is how badly China's zero tolerance to covid is going to pan out over the next 12 months. Right now they have a population with a relatively low booster rate (57%). The problem with their Sinopharm vaccine is it is only effective (at least in over 60 yr old people) when you have the booster. In actual fact the Sinopharm third dose is not really a booster, but is now being referred to by many as the minimum course. If this is the case then Chinas actual vaccination rate is not the published 88% (ineffective double dose), but 57%"who have had 3 doses. This is why China is going hardcore with the lockdowns, because if it gets out of control the death rate will be staggering. This will result in more delays to our bike related stuff. This ends my thesis into why prices are not going down any time soon. Here is where I grabbed my info regarding the China stats and vaccine info...

  • 14 3
 Costing hasn’t decreased in any substantial rate. Material costs are still high and freight is still astronomical. If everyone is sitting in inventory purchased at a heightened cost it’s going to be a while before lower cost items make their way into the supply chain, if that ever happens.
  • 42 4
 @IMeasureStuff: Yeah supposedly the Chinese vaccine is a total POS. Authoritarians are terrible at governing, hopefully it doesn't catch on in this country.
  • 13 3
 The chances of that happening are aboit as likely as Kurt Cobain making a comeback to music.......
  • 28 0
 Yeah ! My landlord offered me a 20% discount on my rent in North Van.

Just kiddin' !
  • 79 0
 Prices are now at a new normal.
The old normal will herein be referred to as "back in my day".
  • 12 0
 @letsgoridebikes18: containers last year were $3,200, they’re now $19,000. I’ve seen as high as 24k. Another six months before that stabilizes. Too bad there is a giant wave of stock still sitting there. With boom is bust.
  • 7 2
 @IMeasureStuff: Awesome reply
  • 8 5
 Honestly, with rising gas prices, I feel like they should be charging more for bikes because they are saving you more money. It's so ridiculous that people arent willing to pay 8,000 dollars on a bike. Like come on.
  • 8 0
 I wish we could post in-line images, because the Anakin/Padme meme would be golden here. Padme:”so prices will start dropping back to normal… right?” Anakin: stone faced.
  • 6 1
 I'm considering for the first time in 20 years to pay a full retail price for my rear tyre (while being happy to even get one)..
  • 1 0
  • 1 0
 @IMeasureStuff: That's really interesting. I haven't read anything about their developed vaccine. Thanks for the info!

And I'm piggybacking this to say until global shipping and backlog gets sorted we won't see any real price reductions until people start selling bikes en masse.
  • 2 0

Yeah Outside. Let us post pics.
  • 16 1
 @IMeasureStuff: Chynaaaah isn't trying to save lives, they're trying to save face. Winnie the Pooh is trying to get re-elected for life by his party. Zero COVID is about looking all powerful, cause that's what authoritarians have to do.

Once he's in for life, he can back to giving zero f*cks about his people and get the machine running again.
  • 1 0
 Maybe when freight comes back down to earth. Very little of the price increases we've seen have to do with scarcity.
  • 1 0
 @constantly-broken: That would be awesome.
  • 2 0
 @IMeasureStuff: The only competition for years to come is the recycling of what has already been produced. Producers think they will push everyone to the wall to pay gold. I will never give up. I really don't need a bike manufacturer to live. All I need is a used parts store. The golden age of MTB is long over. So let's continue to enjoy its fruits.
  • 4 0
 Tomorrow you will wish for today’s prices. There’s been a massive increase in fiat money supply along with lockdowns and wars that reduce supply.
  • 3 0
 @IMeasureStuff: your "facts" have no place here. I came for the wild & moody opinions.
  • 1 0
 Realistically, prices of all commodities are #@$% until the 2025 product year at the earliest. That's if all of Europe is not at war and we don't have another Chinese Revolution - both are looking more likely.....
  • 2 2
 get real pal, the prices arent ever going to get lower, how about you get your money up and not your funny up broke boy... #staywokepal
  • 6 0
 Prices are never coming down. 80% of all dollars that have ever existed have been printed since the beginning of 2020. They did the same thing with the Euro. They have diluted your money. Its never ever going to be worth what it was.

I just think its amazing that so many people seemed to think there would be no price to pay for closing the world economy for large parts of the last 2 years. So many people were happy getting paychecks to sit at home and never wondering where all of this free money was coming from. It wasn't free, it was eroding the value of your savings at a shocking rate.
  • 8 2
 @IMeasureStuff: hmmmm.....i think you are trying to impart undeserved logic upon the Chinese authorities. Vaccination rates have almost nothing to do with what is going on out there. There is no scientific basis for what is happening out there. They have teams of people walking the streets disinfecting them. They are quarantining healthy people. They are building barriers to lock people in....

All to stop a disease that is transmitted through the air and we now know is not that deadly in omincrom varient. 90% of cases in China are asymptomatic. There is absolutely no way of stopping the spread of Omicrom and what you are arguing here basically gives validation to the Chinese authorities.

Also, large parts of Eastern Europe have much lower vaccination rates than China and they have no seen the "catastrophic" death tolls you are describing. There seem to be some people out there who can't acknowledge that Covid is now not as deadly as the disease we were all so fearful of in March 2020...

China is an authoritarian shit hole and you shouldn't be making excuses for their disgusting behaviour.
  • 8 11
 @IMeasureStuff: you're f'n brainwashed in North America with all this vaccine garbage. I left Canada last year because of all the BS and as soon as you hit Europe it is normal again. No one is dying. Anyone that gets covid has regular cold symptoms that pass in a week. turn your TV off and live your life.

People here gather in large groups, maskless, no one cares if your vaxxed or not. people eat together, share food, and are enjoying life. Same down south.

Every single country who has strict covid BS has a leader that is a member of the world economic forum. And yet people still think the great reset is a conspiracy. You're all blind. stop believing your government-funded censored media and skewed test results.
  • 1 6
flag fracasnoxteam FL (Apr 27, 2022 at 13:47) (Below Threshold)
 @poundsand: and Trump will be back in January to save the world with JFK and Jesus !!
  • 1 1
 @fracasnoxteam: yes it would be, but sadly, a shotgun to the face kinda made that impossible
  • 2 0
 @IMeasureStuff: Username checks out. =)
  • 3 1
 @poundsand: most covid cases in europe are not severe because of the high vaccination rate. Worldwide, the data demonstrates that unvaccinated have a far higher rate of hospitalization, ICU admissions, and death.
  • 57 0
 Remember when you didn’t consider a $4000 bike to be a “value bike”
The prices on parts and bikes are just depressing. I bet you less people will continue to get into the sport.
  • 31 6
 4 grand was a boutique bike with top spec in 2010. The industry (including pb) keeps trying to tell us that there isn't gouging going on but every bike shop i go to has expanded and or remodeled in the last 2 years. Nevermind there's probably 10 fold the number of bike brands out there with only the most egregious failing. Like, somehow Ellsworth is still making it despite "razor thin margins" supposedly had by all.
  • 30 4
 @lostlunchbox: 12 years is a long time.
In 2010 the median house price where I live was A$460k.
By the end of 2019 (pre-COVID) it was A$790k.

$500k used to buy your dream home, now you'll be lucky if $500k buys you a small house miles from town. A few grand on a bike makes no difference. If you owned a house in 2010 you can afford any bike, if you don't own a house now you'll be lucky to be able to afford rent in a few years, let alone a descent mountain bike. But I digress and will now internalise my rant.
  • 32 4
 @lostlunchbox: Exactly! I was listening to an episode of the PB podcast this weekend and they read a comment that annoyed Kaz, Levi, et. al. and it said something along the lines of PB carrying water for the idea that bike prices are where they should be despite their cost going up significantly in the last few years. The presenters all got defensive and essentially said that biking is expensive and we all just need to deal with it - essentially you need to pay to play or shut up with no concessions given to 20%, 30%, or even 40% price hikes while releasing worse and worse spec-ed bikes. They completely missed the point of the comment and acted as though everything were in line with what it should be.
  • 23 1
 I have bought new bikes about every three years since 1987. If you drop 4 grandish on almost any build today you get a way nicer bike than anything from 2010. Bikes are expensive today yeah but some of the junk I paid 2 grand for 15 to 20 years ago, sheesh, most people would not ride to the bar.
  • 5 14
flag OnTheRivet (Apr 26, 2022 at 20:36) (Below Threshold)
 @schu2470: Capitalism is great at correcting this shit.
  • 7 3
 @Mike-Jay: Realestate is not a reasonable comparable. Like not even a bit. House prices around me have gone up 100% in 2 years. Does that mean bike prices should be twice as much as well? Inflation in general is roughly 3 to 4% a year. The last two years being an exception obviously. So you should expect at most a 50% increase on bike prices at most. Top and models regularly rate 150% over my example. Computers despite getting significantly better over the past two decades have come down insanely in price. The original cell phones cost 4 grand each
in 1983 dollars and were the size of a briefcase. The bicycle industry loves to talk about trickle down technology. Not surprisingly it takes a tip from the disaster that is "Reaganomics".
  • 12 1
 @lostlunchbox: I know, more just ranting.
But my point was more that basic housing is actually a huge problem for heaps of people. The price of a luxury item (like a mountain bike) increasing over a decade is so far down the list of problems. Yes, mountain bikes are a luxury item.
  • 3 1
 @mtbikesince87: the particular bike I had in mind was a Cove g-spot that was a trade show model. Top end everything as well as boutique bling parts on it. I actually got it brand new through eBay for $2500 (CAD)! Some of the "cheap" bikes they're reviewing this week are more expensive than that without inflation adjustment. And you can't tell me they are better value. One of them doesn't even stop apparently! Well it sure didn't pedal quite as good as some modern bikes I never felt like I was ever lacking going downhill or hucking it. If I hadn't effed the seat tube by running the post too high (droppers came too late and it had a curved tube irrc) I'd probably still ride that thing. And my waning youth and waxing waistline negate any benefits of going uphill that modern bikes have. Everybody claims that geo is the biggest game changer anyways. Not sure why that should cost anything.
  • 6 8
 @schu2470: No serious rider pays full price. They are on a Bro deal or a flow deal and we Consumers are all screwed. Why should should they care? We pay their bills. It has always been this way. That's why when YT was still cheap we screwed the man for about 3 years. Now we're on clapped out 7-year old bikes looking at a 10k buy-in to get back to the sharp end of performance. That is how Velocapitalism works. I prefer to put money into other hobbies these days but still love to ride my beater because it out-performs any prior bike I owned. Enjoy the ride ppl. Just get outside.
  • 8 2
 @schu2470: You will get a $6k bike with sram SX, mechanical disk brakes, performance suspension and be happy!
  • 8 1
  • 24 3
 @OnTheRivet: No it isn’t. Capitalism is only good at making money for the wealthy. Nothing trickles down.
The aim of our current version of capitalism appears to be to let the rest of us have just enough so we don’t revolt, but not enough that we have time to stop and think.
  • 5 0
 @lostlunchbox: Man I always liked what cove was up too. Maybe I was getting hosed back then but I had v-brakes on a bike I paid 2 grand for. I had hayes brakes that I couldn't keep fluid in to save my life on a Kona Dog Deeluxe that was the xt build, I think I paid 2500 usd for it. I would take any of the value bikes over those two bikes.
My current build is a Banshee w/lyric, magura Mt7, 11 speed xt and decent wheels probably just under 4000 and it seems like a good value and my favorite bike so far. It seems like we forget how bad those bikes were or maybe 4000 comes easier now then 2500 did then.
  • 14 2
 @schu2470: Dollar value from 2013 to today is $1.23. So on average prices should be 23.42% higher today.

For comparison, the average price of a motorcycle sold in the US stayed stable at around $11,800 over those 9 years (all motorcycle types included.) The market shrunk keeping prices down.

Over the same period MTB prices have increased way more than other products.

We are getting collectively ripped off. It’s a fact.

What and who to blame doesn’t matter or change the fact that bikes are extremely overpriced. There will eventually be a correction, but bad times will have to happen first.
  • 6 0
as long as there are people willing to pay maximum price the brands will take advantage of that
  • 5 2
 @alis66: C'mon, progress and development in the motorcycle world is seriously lagging. Uptake of e-motorcycles very slow, no boost hubs, no high pivots, no new wheel sizes. No surprise that the prices are stagnant.
  • 2 0
 @alis66: So the “Dollar Value” has increased by roughly a quarter; have incomes gone up at the same rate?
  • 3 0
 @mtbikesince87: Yeah it was a sweet bike. I also had a shocker that sadly got liberated. Unfortunately i don't know that chaz had the motivation to keep it going. I'm not sure how you put that banshee together for 4 g's (nice work) but a basic *very* conservative breakdown would look like this for the average consumer paying msrp today (not really many other options these days for the average joe buying new) Banshee prime frameset $2500, RS lyric $1000, xt groupo w/cranks $700, Magura mt7's $500, "decent" wheelset $750, dropper/lever/grips/saddle/pedals/tires/bars $650. Total $6100 pre tax usd ...conservatively... for a mid tier bike.
  • 6 1
 @schu2470: Bikes are selling out at these prices. So the prices are definitely not higher than what they 'should' be. If you don't want to pay these prices then don't. Just keep riding what you have, don't upgrade. Buy lower end components or second hand stuff to replace what breaks. This is what I do. If you do it too, and millions of others with us, manufacturers will want that market share.
But as long as there are more people willing to put down $3000 for an SX equipped bike than what the manufacturers can make and transport to the shops, they are not going to take anyone serious when they say: "We, the mountain bikers, do not want these expensive shit bikes".
It does seem weird how much mountain bikes cost compared to more complex machines like cars and motorbikes. But I don't believe there is some conspiracy going on. When only the cheap bikes sell, and the expensive ones gather dust on the shop and warehouse floors, that's when prices are too high and they will come down.
  • 5 0
 @mtbikesince87: I bought a trek session in 2010 with a full X01 build. Fox 40’s and mavic deemax wheelset for less then £4000. All the parts are sill working flawlessly on a intense frame that rides way better than these 4K deore builds with garbage wheelsets and shit suspension. It’s the same with any business. Every year they want more money for less work. Bikes will still get more expensive and the quality and components will keep getting worse until it starts effect profit and then they’ll dial back their prices and start offering better value.
  • 5 0
 I was thinking about that on yesterdays' base-model Stumpjumper review.

Barely two years ago, Vital MTB did a group test of 6 (!) very decent full-suspension trail bikes, each for less than $2000. I really don't like where the market has gone since. Two of my friends (both also students without much disposable income) would like to get into mountainbiking properly, but are both put off by the expensive prices of decent bikes. Can't really fault them, can you. Like, imagine trying to explain to someone who isn't a core-group mountainbiker that they have to drop at least 2.5k to get into an entry-level full-suspension bike.
  • 1 3
 @korev: mine has, because I have skills in an in-demand industry and was willing to work my ass off and job hop. And the company I work for thinks it's cheaper to retain talent with $$$ than to always be hiring new people for cheap.

But your average worker with average motivation? Thier wages have mostly been flat. So they've been taking a pay cut the last 10 years.
  • 2 0
 @gbonen3215: I bought my first high end bike in 1999. A Schwinn Homegrown 4-banger with a huge 100mm of travel for around $2,000. It was top of the line back then. Now I'm looking at buying a Banshee Prime V3 frame for $2,500. I really miss the good old days.
  • 1 0
 @lostlunchbox:@lostlunchbox: You're probably right it might not be under 4, I had most of the small parts. The frame was 2200, the brakes @ 400 off PB buy and sell, wheels were rebuilt on 4 year old hubs with new hoops so 400. The drive train is only a new cassette, chain and chain ring for 200, the rest is 3 years old. One up dropper 200, I had a lever. I have a box of bars, grips and stems...I understand if you have to buy new at today's prices it seems like a ton of money but those drive trains and brakes from before 2014ish were garbage and maintenance hassles.
  • 1 0
 @thenotoriousmic: If my conversion is correct 4000 pounds is around 5 grand?? I have no doubt you can keep all those parts going and they still work, they aren't as good as top of line parts today. A new Trek Session 8 at full retail is 5300 usd and every part is better, brakes suspension, drive train even the Trek house parts are good. I think in 12 years you could still be riding most of those parts as well. That doesn't seem like overly inflated prices to me.
  • 2 1
 @mtbikesince87: top of the line? Really? I bought a GT I-Drive new in 2001 for $1200. It have basic tektro v-brakes l, a Rockshox fork with an elastomer in it, shitty ass Fox coil shock with Zero adjustments, cheap Shimano components and weighed about a million lbs. I’d guess that’s around $2k in todays money? You can get a 2022 Kona Process 134 for $2900 with a RS air fork and shock w/rebound adjustment, deore components and a F**king Dropper seat post. $2900!!!!!! That is definitely twice the bike that I paid $1200 in 2001.

People bitch and complain in spite of themselves. Companies could put together a pretty decent lower end bike but people are too materialistic and it wouldn’t sell. A bike with Suntour suspension and microshift drivetrain could be good but no one would buy it as a “performance mtb”. That Kona could be $2000 with these components, but would anyone buy it?

So here we will stay, complaining about bike prices but refusing to do anything about it.
  • 1 0
 @mtbikesince87: sorry, responded to the wrong person.
  • 2 0
 @mtbikesince87: Yeah something like that currency is all over the place at the moment. But no that original 9 speed x01 stuff made by sachs in Germany might still be the best quality groupset ever made. Miles ahead deore / SX crap you get for that price now as are the wheels, shock the fox 40’s are pretty much identical to the 40’s you get today except damper honestly think the 951 all the parts are on now would even make a better trail bike that some of these bikes. It tips the scales at 34lbs.
  • 2 7
flag blackthorne (Apr 27, 2022 at 7:12) (Below Threshold)
 @Mike-Jay: without capitalism you would have no iPhone, no electric cars, no prime same day shipping, no meals delivered to your door, no Reddit, etc. Capitalism generates jobs, opportunity, and free speech yet it’s easy to focus in on certain bad actors or feel that the world is unfair and lose sight of the bigger picture. Without capitalist style policies you run the risk of authoritarian regimes gaining control when the economy tanks. people can put their ideological biases aside for a second and just open a history textbook.
  • 1 0
 @lostlunchbox: I take it you’ve never worked at a bike shop……
  • 1 0
 @korev: Yes, incomes have gone up slightly more on a per household basis. Around 25%.
  • 1 0
 @Mike-Jay: Well said. And the the beneficiaries of the system who can afford the lifestyle and don't want to mingle with the riff-raff are moving into gated communities (like Outside+)
  • 4 0
 @blackthorne: you are weird…
you claim capitalism prevents authoritarian tendencies. Please explain the current GQP and Drumpf!
  • 3 0
 @blackthorne: The products you cite as benefits of Capitalism are exactly what many dislike about the world today "no iPhone, no electric cars, no prime same day shipping, no meals delivered to your door, no Reddit" - That sounds like Paradise. Those 'benefits' all prey on our predisposition to Consume. Unchecked, we will consume all life forms, the entire planet, and anywhere else we can reach. *burp
  • 3 0
 @mtbikesince87: except that 2010 XT brakes and drivetrain were far more durable and higher quality than today's SX crap. Yes, geometry had improved significantly, but that doesn't raise costs and shouldn't impact prices. Every bike needs to be researched and designed with the knowledge available at that time. Designing a bike with updates insights shouldn't impact prices. Also, bigger wheels (biggest impact after geometry) have only marginally higher material and design costs. Drivetrains have dropped the front gears (lowering costs) and added 2 or 3 cogs in the back. A 2010 $4k bike had a more durable drivetrain than a 2022 $4k bike. That leaves suspension as the sole component that has actually improved and gotten more complex, with probably raised costs.
And yes, that 2022 bike rides better, but a 2022 tv is both cheaper, bigger and better than a 2010 one. That's called progress.
  • 4 1
 @lostlunchbox: A current $4000 bike would out-perform a 2010 bike worth a lot more. There isn't gouging going on, there is a much broader market which includes a pile of people who want a carbon frame, carbon wheels, 9000 point engagement hubs, brakes that would have been a wet-dream in 2010, a dropper seatpost, thru-axles, high/low speed compression & rebound adjustment on a non-noodle fork, tires that are better than Kenda Nevegals, enough suspension to ride a World Cup DH course while also being able to crush technical climbs...
While a 2022 bike at $4000 might have SLX compared to having XTR in 2010, bikes have evolved so drastically and improved for the dollar spent.
Back to the gouging, if gouging was happening it would leave a pile of room for shops, component or bike manufacturers to disrupt the market with significantly reduced pricing. I'm not seeing that.
As for shops being expanded or upgraded; we have seen the demise of the hobby shop. Reputable brands won't sell to shops that have a bunch of randomly displayed stuff on peg-board walls, boxes on the floor and no ability to pay their bills. I have witnessed more shops closing than opening in a market that has doubled in population over the last 20 years - those businesses smart enough to recognize retail is changing survive and those barely scraping by go out of business. We aren't seeing gouging. We're seeing a maturing market that has to remain relevant in a retail market that is getting increasingly sophisticated.
  • 2 0
 @grampa: I’d like to see reviews of say a Stumpjumper comparing the different models at the same price point (make it $4k) since the first one. I wonder which would actually be fastest? I wonder which changes made the most difference? Wheel size? Disc brakes? Geometry changes?
Personally I’ll take Deore disc brakes on a tubeless 29er over XTR V brakes on 26” tubes any day of the week.
  • 2 0
 @Mac1987: I don't have a tv, that's progress, lol

Yeah I'm with ya, i don't let my wife ride SX. I still think my current build at 4ish grand is way better than the 2500 I spent on the Kona dawg. I don't want to go back to the good ole days.
  • 1 0
 Everyone is fighting for an increasing share of a decreasing market. Thule racks? Several thousand dollar mountain bikes? Fact is, anyone who's going to get into the sport is there already, and the price barrier blocks expansion. Now the main market is most likely replacements. So the only real room for expansion is for companies to spend all their capital stealing sales from the competition.
  • 1 0
 @Denjen: yeah but that bike from 1999 is complete crap in comparison to a modern bike that is maybe slightly more expensive
  • 1 0
 @Denjen: yeah but that bike from 1999 is complete crap in comparison to a modern bike that is maybe slightly more expensive
  • 2 0
I've worked in the bike industry for the last thirty years; wholesale, retail, manufacturing. I can tell you with absolute fact that there was no price gouging by our shop or any of our suppliers starting early 2020. We sold everything at the regular price even though the demand was nuts. October/November of that year is when overseas shipping rates went crazy and prices starting going up. Most suppliers/brands have had 6 or more price jumps since. I can't sell anyone a bike or repair it for what it cost in 2019. We are paying our staff more but they deserve to make a decent (not exorbitant) living for all the hard work.
Yes the price of some bikes are ridiculous. That's something the industry as a whole will have to figure out
  • 37 4
 Them claiming the bike boom has stopped, me still trying to find a local bike shop that is not fully sold out.
  • 19 0
 Supply chain issues still exist irrespective of a slow in growth. It's going to take a while for things to settle down.
  • 8 2
 see thats weird, Here in NZ Pretty much every bike shop has decent stock. includes spares few items are backorderd... TBF we never really Ran out of bikes, Sure a few brands ran out but got restocked quickly.
  • 33 1
 @HeatedRotor: great. New Zealand is the best at something else now. We get it. You’re amazing. Stop rubbing it in!
  • 4 0
 @VtVolk: ^^^^^ This
  • 1 9
flag grahamstevens04 (Apr 26, 2022 at 20:42) (Below Threshold)
 Maybe use your brain.
  • 3 3
 @VtVolk: haha sorry - didnt mean it like that. We have a small moments of glory - generally until the government starts making life hard for us all - We desperately need independent states - The Fluffys in wellington/auckland don't realize there's actually anther island south of them
  • 4 1
 @HeatedRotor: I heard that New Zealand, home to the Southern Alps and numerous ski resorts on both north and south island, landed its first-ever winter Olympic gold medal this year. If true, New Zealand is the best at something else else now!
  • 3 0
 @HeatedRotor: Still a few big gaps in stock availability here in NZ, Sram being the worst culprit
  • 1 0
 @doe222: that depends where you look - alot of shops have "store stock" thats not on websites, Ive rang several places lately who have had items(one being a sram crankset) instore but out of stock on the website, many of the websites in NZ show supplier stock.
Burkes being a good example, alot of items ive orderd over the phone because website says no stock.
  • 1 0
 @HeatedRotor: NZ have been fighting hard for stock since day 0 so it's no wonder they are kinda good at it
  • 3 0
 This. Buying any Shimano 12-speed cassette right now is basically impossible.
  • 6 0
 Google "bullwhip effect" for supply chains.

There will be a reckoning. It will take some time.

2024 prolly gonna be a good year to find some deals.
  • 1 0
 @greenblur: Hi, some people give me money every months to talk and explain things about supply chain and "2024 gonna be a good year to find some deals" is something I agree with. Especially used parts.
  • 1 0
 @HeatedRotor: yeah isn't there like 10000 people in the whole NZ? Big Grin
  • 1 0
 @Muscovir: Anything 12-speed from Shimano is rather hard to get in Europe at the moment. On the rare occasion something in is stock I tend to buy two so I don't end up unable to ride due to lack of parts again.
  • 3 0
 @korev: you should buy 3 just to be sure !
  • 30 0
 Maybe we will see a boom in the used bike market in a few years, as all these pandemic bikers get tired of pedalling once a month or paying for lift tickets to ride green flow trails.
  • 18 0
 Yeah but those bikes won’t have the right head angle, seat angle, stay length, battery, motor, wheel size, color…
  • 40 3
 @Sleeperific: bicycles don’t have batteries (real ones, at least)
  • 1 0
 There will be a boom but the ignorant will put them up at 10% less than they paid. "Hardly used" pro bike
  • 1 0
 @fiftyshadesofbacon: I’d upvote you 15 times if I could!!
  • 1 0
 @fiftyshadesofbacon: tell that to SRAM…
  • 1 0
 @fiftyshadesofbacon: we all believe that now, but ask the average rider in 5 years, when marketing departments and paid reviews (not necessarily on PB) have done their jobs...
  • 1 0
 Totally, that's one I've been sort of trying to follow and keep eyes on, because I've been fully expecting it. I thought it would have happened way sooner though. Seems like it hasn't happened at all... almost like people really actually like riding bikes?! Go figure.
  • 19 1
 Who has money for bike stuff when milk is $5/gallon!
  • 11 0
 when gas and milk cost the same lol
  • 57 8
 Buy beer not milk. Cow milk isn't for humans - give me carbonated neurotoxins.
  • 15 1
 I could have paid for a full annual subscription to Outside with what we’ve paid for milk so far this month. I’d still rather pay for milk than Outside.
  • 4 1
 Vegans who bought crypto
  • 4 0
 @suspended-flesh: Love my poisonous bread soda.
  • 14 0
 people aren't ordering stuff because we're still waiting on stuff from a year ago!
  • 14 0
 You don’t need a bike rack if you don’t have a bike
  • 13 0
 Does this mean I might be able to get a replacement 12 speed XT cassette before the driver body changes again?
  • 3 0
 Someday, maybe. Probably about the same time I can get a set of Slx cranks. At least XT shifters showed up recently.
  • 2 0
 I recently sold off my 12s parts. The dude who bought the xt cassette was so grateful he offered me a lot more than I had asked in the listing. I only took my asking price but gave him a used (although waxed and well looked after) chain to go with it.
  • 11 4
 Aka "we can't keep up with the demand, shipping is a nightmare, factories are a cluster F, we tired, we KNOW things aren't slowing, we have a monopoly on the industry, we need a beer, did we mention we tired"
  • 7 0
 I forgot everything you said before and after beer. Where's the beer? You mentioned beer?
  • 5 0
 Don't we have a hard time believing Shimano's take on the market status when they were the most ill prepared company in the history of bicycles to have ANY goods moving during the pandemic chaos?
  • 1 0
 Everyone I know who runs Shimano has a bunch of weird Aliexpress cassettes, chains, pads and rotors on their bikes right now because of this.
  • 4 0
 It's an inevitable global slowdown. I work in tourism for state of Florida... So far 2022 has seen a decline in rentals and visitation compared to the astronomical boom of 2021. The lack of stimulus checks and new historic inflation has meant reality has likely caught up to many folks who were trying to outrun the 2020 lockdowns. While it's true there may be a slowing in sales, there still are massive commodities shortages across the globe, so prices will likely stay high.
  • 4 0
 Or maybe all the cargo ships waiting to be unloaded are getting so packed they can't fit anything out the factory door and thats why they are slowing down...
  • 6 2
 Waiting for the inevitable whiplash effect to kick in on this one and deals to start popping up. Save your money folks, deals are just around the corner!
  • 11 1
 are you willing to bet money on this statement?
  • 3 0
 @Kimura: no doubt we will see a sudden over-stock. may not happen with bikes themselves but parts, clothing etc for sure.
  • 3 0
 Only if you want an Intense.
  • 1 0
 I kinda feel like a whiplash is coming aswell. Lately stuff has been sold out way less than just a year ago. For example at my local Trek dealership you could buy multiple flavours and sizes of Slash or Fuel EX right now, where as this time last year the showroom was literally empty.
  • 3 0
 @Muscovir: I won't go into the how and why but I know for a fact most brands will have left over stock from 2022 only because a lot of bikes will arrive too late for the NA bike season. Shops not wanting to strain their finances are starting to cancel orders so they aren't caught with left over inventory they can't afford.
  • 1 0
 Well, we're all hoping!
  • 8 3
 Well, I'd like to blame it on Biden, but I can't come up with a reason on this one!
  • 21 3
 Everyone knows the president sets the price of gas and bikes. He also controls bike supply. Clearly his fault. It is because the government is actually run by a group of 5 old white men that secretly direct everything. At least that is what I saw on facebook and everything there is true. Is naybody else pooping their pants after eating a tube of apple flavored ivermectin? Is that normal?
  • 3 0
 Thanks, Xi
  • 4 2
 It's Boden's fault that Trump left him with this mess
  • 11 9
 Tell me another story about "supply issues" and dont forget "shipping charges and container pricing"


Ill just ride the piece of sh#t I got. Tell me another price increase supply problem load of crap.

Then spec some junk with SX at 3grand. Sorry gang not buyin that crap.
  • 2 3
 oh man, all this f¸¸ers was so happy when covid came so it can be excuse for artificial crisis so they can rise the prices.
  • 1 0
 not sure what you are talking about. There are 3 new LBS in my city, and two opened extra locations Big Grin
  • 3 0
 When inflation kicks in for good and people won't be able to pay the bills, bicycles won't be nowhere near the top of the priority list of purchases. It's a luxury good in western counties not a necessity.
  • 1 0
 while I agree with your username Big Grin A bicycle is the main tool to maintain physical health which is more important than any bills Big Grin
  • 3 1
 Reason bike industry demand is down? I’ll surmise it’s because the common folks priorities have shifted to more critical things like food and fuel and perhaps a little bit of resentment towards the industry for sticking it up our ass over the last two years. Karma motherf*ckers! Karma!
  • 2 0
 I guess this new explosion of growth will eventually deliver a huge selection of used bikes and parts as people upgrade or decide golf is less effort that biking . My buddy says" today's 100 $ bill is yesterday's 20 dollar bill. Reality bites.
  • 2 0
 Microshift and Sunrace offer 11-46 or 11-48 10 speed cassettes. Pair with any shimano 11 speed derailleur and 10 speed shifter. All parts currently in stock. Or just buy the full Advent X group. In stock all over the US. Drivetrains are disposable and they all work fairly well. No need to be brand loyal.
  • 2 0
 1up Racks are eating Thule's dinner. Nobody wants your shitty arm rack or overpriced roof box. Shimano is backorder through 2023 and SRAM is pushing product fast. I fear for companies who have based demand off of the Covid surge. Feast and famine boys!
  • 4 0
 Why would you need a bike rack, when you have no bike because of Shimano Shortage...
  • 1 0
 Yup that's how economic bubbles work. Sudden spike in demand followed by a stead drop-off. Just like all outdoor stuff, it was out of stock everywhere, in huge demand because people were in lockdown and looking for things to do, and prices went through the roof. Now everyone's back to work, lost interest in those hobbies, etc.
  • 2 0
 prices are already dropping, importers are facing space and cash flow issues. Prices will not drop as low as pre-Covid but the current inventory needs to find a home and there's no other stimulant than price.
  • 1 0
 This isn't cosplay... Dressing up and buying all the best shit comes with a price tag of time and hard work in this sport. Uber won't deliver self discipline, skills or fitness. Don't worry, I will be here to carpetbag your killer rig in two years. It will be virtually brand new, and my kids will enjoy shredding the shit out of it...
  • 1 0
 I’m ready for a recession. Things have been a bit nuts for to long:
1. Bikes not being available, manufacturing raising cost, your LBS not being open to cut a deal ——
2. Parts being difficult to score either locally or on internet
3. Premium BS, things like Outdoor magazine trying to twist Pinkbike community into becoming members to services. Strava no longer showing full leader boards, Netflix raising prices
4. Consumerism - people need to stop buying so much shi*, just enjoy what they got .
Some say a recession is bad - I say bring it baby….
  • 2 0
 shimano would be experiencing lower growth in their buisness because they cant keep up with stock as sram seem to be infront of the in the market because they have product
  • 3 0
 major local store is still telling customers "earlier we can get you a bike if you put a deposit down today is july...:"
  • 1 1
 If you need bike parts you should buy them now. Prices are going up. With all G7 leader printing money like drunken sailors. Inflation is just getting started. Elections have consequences. Stolen elections have dire consequences.
  • 3 0
 Make sense, xt brake levers became available last week finally.
  • 1 0
 I got some SLX the week before too. Now just waiting for Zees to be back in stock somewhere.
  • 1 2
 I think my post has been removed, I didn't know pink pink did this. If you need bike parts you should buy them now. Prices are going up. With all G7 leader printing money like drunken sailors. Inflation is just getting started. Elections have consequences. Stolen elections have dire consequences.
  • 1 0
 Does this mean we won’t have to put a deposit on our 2026 bike this summer???
  • 3 8
flag HeatedRotor FL (Apr 26, 2022 at 17:27) (Below Threshold)
 i've bought 9 bikes from 2020 to now, not had to backorder or wait for any.
  • 9 1
 @HeatedRotor: flex much? Or r u a lbs
  • 3 3
 @5chmaus: Just lucky enough to be able to swap bikes every few months/own multiple at a time.
The comparisons between companys in quality etc is crazy. base alloy models at 7k NZD vs other brands carbon perf elite models at 7.1kNZD.
many brands here are considerd botique, like transition & ibis and we pay a huge premium for them.
  • 1 0
 @HeatedRotor: fair enough. that’s many folks’ dream to test out that many bikes! Up here PNW transition still seems like the most affordable high end option.
  • 11 10
 Report back when we care. IE when we can actually order stuff and not at a hiked up cost because 'reasons'.
  • 2 0
 A perfect moment for another raise in prices
  • 1 0
 What about a new seatpost standard? Make everyones frame obsolete again. Or ebikes? Need some kinda gimmick....
  • 2 2
 Hooray, it will only take 4 years for bike brands and consumers to get a shimano part now once they order it.
  • 1 0
 I kinda like the thule rack on the crv.
  • 3 0
 The car in the picture is a Fit, not a CRV. My friend has a Thule on his CRV though and it works great
  • 2 0
 @sjma: And that hitch is not square causing the rack to be off... Once you see that, you can't un-see it...

Maybe just my OCD shining through.
  • 1 0
  • 1 0
 Hoping for some good deals this fall. I think it might happen
  • 1 0
 off to the comment section to see what experts think Big Grin
  • 1 0
 Wheres my XTR set ?

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