The German bike company Propain posted a
statement on its site about how a sharp increase in demand for bikes due to COVID-19 has affected lead times and pricing for its bikes.
The statement explained that the delays come from problems with supply for the numerous parts that need to come together to build a complete bike. In some cases, the company wrote, shortage of parts can mean lead times of up to 14 months. For reference, the average lead time was around 90 days before the COVID bike boom. Propain’s online customization tool, which allows customers to pick the colors of their decals, saddles, and grips in the US and offers many more customization options in Europe, makes it even more difficult to predict what the company will need to stock in advance.
The statement also explained that the company has faced significant shipping cost increases and will have to pass that cost to consumers. Because of backups in sea cargo shipping, Propain has changed some of its shipments from sea to air transport to try to minimize the delays. However, air transport is expensive at baseline, and prices are rising as demand increases because more manufacturers have had to make the switch. It used to cost $10-$20 to ship one bike frame by sea, Propain CEO David Assfalg said. Now, the company has been quoted $175 for the equivalent shipment by air.
Propain is not alone in facing long wait times and shipping cost increases. Commencal posted a
similar press release in late December, and although most other companies have been less forthcoming about the problems in supply this year, they all rely on essentially the same suppliers for parts that come from Asia and are scarce right now: suspension, drivetrains, tires, and more. No company is exempt from these challenges, so we can likely expect to see similar delays and pricing changes throughout the industry.
media1.tenor.com/images/28496aeddd9495406a55e85446f7b44d/tenor.gif
China is the enemy to a free world.
Transporting a bike by air emits roughly 100x as much CO2 as sea freight and can roughly double carbon footprint of a bike before it even gets to the customer. Just to make sure it arrives a couple of weeks earlier :-(
the direct to consumer model of operating on a razor thin margin (and forcing everyone else to try to do the same!) to depress prices and be hyper competitive on the consumer side is only exacerbating the effects of the globalization of labor and the resultant localized specialization in industry and manufacturing. such a system that services consumer demand across the globe is very complex and, as we are now learning, not very robust at all! it's a tower made of toothpicks and mini marshmallows, and COVID is a rain storm giving it a good hammering!
think that's bad? it gets worse! COVID, a relatively short term crisis that hit everywhere on the planet hard and fast thanks to our globalized system, incentivizes short-sighted behaviors such as shipping bike frames via air freight to keep the juice flowing (as capitalism demands) at the long term expense of emitting more C02. think the rain storm of COVID is bad? guess what kiddies, climate change is an F5 tornado and it's headed our way quick!
but we got to ride some pretty sick bikes, didnt we? thx for coming to my ted talk
*shakes fist in communist*
www.irena.org/Statistics/View-Data-by-Topic/Capacity-and-Generation/Country-Rankings
So some country has to start, right?
I guess it's pretty easy to vilify their recent history burning fossil fuels when you are already part of a first world economy. However, now that they've created the only modern new middle class they're tackling that problem at larger scale than practically any other large nation with an industrial economy. That's how I interpret the data at least.
Usa is clean. We rarely fail our source tests for co; nox; amd pm's. The dirty sources that do fail are usually bio masses.
Yet, when you see '21/22 predictions articles everyone is acting as if this was just some increase in market size and therefore the new normal.
Can't figure out if they act like this on purpose to keep expectations high or if they're just drunk with the numbers
I was thinking the same thing. As we all have seen, hikers(primarily) have taken over (our) trails since last March, but I couldn't believe how many people have been out there this month. Then I remembered January always sees an increase that typically tapers off once all the 'resolutioners' lose motivation.
The same thing *should* happen with the CV bike buyers, and then the market will get flooded with hardly-used bikes that will drive down prices(you know...supply>demand). As 'enthusiasts' we'll need this. Nobody serious about something wants it to become popular with the hordes.
A small shop that offers exceptional service with much less overhead is a recipe for success unless I am living under a rock.
It is the job of the big guys to put the little guys out of business.
Little guys need to find a way to work their way into a market share
Easiest way to do this in the bicycle industry is turn a good wrench. It's one of the reasons the direct sales model isn't really affecting the industry negatively.
My local shops attitude is "the more bikes the better". They treat my Canyon the same as my Kona (which I bought from them).
I mean, it’s been done
Perhaps you find an option for a critical part, you can live with?
If yes, get in touch with them and ask for a change of your order. As far as i know these guys (i had... well... some beers with them), they will try to help you.
All the stock is going to end up in the wrong place, the grey market is going to explode, and its going to be a rough year for many who can't capitalise on that.
As Propane sells a bit on “value” as a direct to consumer brand, that increase is going to be rough for them.
Also, if the issue is complete build components...Hopefully frame only options stick around.
In the video the guy specifically mentions tires and brakes that can't be ordered. Coincidentally these are the parts I really don't care for in their configurator since they only offer sram/magura brakes and schwalbe/vee tires. I'd actually prefer to buy a "complete" bike without brakes and tires...
Nightmare for everyone. Sooner we can get normalcy, the sooner demand can get anything close to stable.
Shipping companies were above capacity last year, with some of them are dumping routes - those that pick up the slack are in high demand and so pricing increases. This is not bike companies gouging - its simple economics.
Freight rates and loading space will go down to the old level when the pandemic crisis is defeated, this will be approximately end of this year. Also local manufacturing is still more expensive then sourcing in at this high freight rate level. So finally: no, your fantasy won’t come true - unfortunately. This would need much more efforts then a little virus.
It’s not like it’s easy to solve either, manufacturers don’t usually have lots of excess capacity so catching up will be difficult if not impossible if they can’t / are not willing to invest and increase capacity. Even if they can catching up on a years production won’t be easy especially if brands will be putting in orders now for 2023 as you say.
Victim of success if I ever saw it.
Then sell all the parts off when they do arrive.
Then shut up shop because business is kaput
What do you do in that situation, can you get an alternative or is that a run of bikes in the can now.....
Its going to crash and burn, badly.
And in the end, it wont help the uk ????
They mention delays on tires, suspension and I'm guessing most parts are unavailable. Frame only could be an option?
Yea produced in the same place as the components hence why ‘frame only’ doesn't quite work as easily as some
Would imagine
(On a side note - their customer service excellent so far-Marcus)
Now some dirt bag who doesn’t even ride is going to get a bike before YOU
The entire planet has become so reliant on China for everything that now when supply slows (or they decide to choke supply) our world ends. The only way to stop this is to re-invest in local brands and infrastructure, whatever country you are in.
A proper size wake up call has been sent our way, maybe it's time to pay attention kids?
Probs on the wrong forum for this, as all the cool kids want the latest and greatest Charbon Uber bike, apparently that's all that matters these days.
Go Capitolism!
Propain: "no."
Bike manufacturers will just change the model year of their inventoried frames... this was a 2021 frame, now it’s a 2022 frame. Look at Yeti... selling old SB100 front and rear triangles with a different linkage and shock as the SB115... that frame is from 2018.
But yes, agree that changing model year of collection will likely also be employed.
I was dead set on getting a Tyee, but I'm no longer interested.
Sell 1000 frames a year and you are short $150,000 - that’s not an insignificant amount of money.
Pent up demand due to decreased availabllity is what is causing price increases. In other words, there's more demand less supply, so you can charge more.
Don't lie to us.
Suppliers ask for more $ for the exact same reason.
And to the first post, yes, I understand how inflation works. The fact still being that you get the lower end of those prices by buying more volume. Never in the history of mass manufacturing (as it's basically the definition) has a larger quantity produced lead to higher cost per-unit. That's just not how it works.
In actuality Propain is probably so small that their suppliers are favoring the bigger dogs and charging them more.
This is just how business works. Supply and demand.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55740063
1. Is that obvious? You have no idea how many would be dead without shutdowns. Most epidemiological models I've seen place it much higher than it is now.
2. I'm pretty sure that US shutdowns have very little effect on the lead time/cost of a German bike company that gets its frames from Asia.
Ignore him. He’s a MAGA troll and whines about this stuff on every thread.
www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0
Here's me, waving at you from Australia. Shutdowns work if they're managed by the competent and the incompetent get out of the way.
you lost him there