[Updated] Q3 Revenue Round Up: Falling Consumer Interest, Layoffs & Drop in Sales

Oct 30, 2022 at 9:58
by Ed Spratt  
Following the boom across the cycling industry over the past few years it seems like the industry is beginning to slow down with demand falling along with revenues. Let's get into all the key details from brand's recent Q3 revenue reports.



Vista Outdoor’s Action Sports Group

Vista Outdoor

Vista Outdoor’s Action Sports group, including its bike brands, has seen sales reaching $151 million in the most recent quarter going against the industry trend with a 44% increase compared to the same time last year.

The collection of brands includes Bell Sports, Giro, Blackburn, Fox Racing, interestingly Vista Outdoor has said that sales of Bell's lower and mid-tier helmets have struggled in the recent quarter because of high levels of inventory at retailers.

bigquotesOur consumers are still relatively healthy and well-employed...

We’re of the belief that it’s more of an inflationary environment than it is a recessionary environment.
Chris Metz, CEO



Giant


Giant Group has also faired well in its first three fiscal quarters with a 14.4% increase over last year leading to net sales of NT$70.87 billion ($2.2 billion).

The Giant Group says its OE business has increased its contribution to the sales total this year which has seen rising costs of materials, logistics and labor affect profits. Giant has also said that the stock of bikes in Europe and North America is improving for entry and mid-level products. Higher-end products are still in short supply.

In its report Giants says demand has "cooled down compared to the past two years" but it "sees the great potentials for the cycling industry."



Fox

Fox Float X and DHX 2022

Going against the trend for other companies in Q3 Fox has recorded company-wide sales increasing by 17.8% compared to last year. The bicycle part of the business saw sales increase by 9.1% in the quarter to $174 million. In the first three quarters of the year, the bike-related Speciality Sports Group had a 25.2% jump in sales to reach $522 million.

bigquotesI am incredibly proud of our Fox team members and their unwavering commitment against a backdrop of growing economic headwind. Mike Dennison, CEO

Following the Q3 report Fox has increased its earnings forecast from $1,565 million to $1,585 million.



GoPro


GoPro has seen year-over-year revenue drop by 4% in Q3 despite increases in subscriptions.

For the quarter ending on September 30, GoPro saw revenue noted at $305 million, a decrease from the $317 million reported in the same period last year. The report did say that subscribers have increased by 55% year-over-year reaching 2.1 million. The subscriber increase has helped to grow subscription and service revenue by 48% compared to 2021 and achieved $21 million in Q3.

bigquotesGoPro's resilience during this challenging economic environment is testament to the meaningful role GoPro plays in the lives of the world's most active and creative people. Nicholas Woodman, Founder and CEO

bigquotesNow that we have crossed the two-million subscriber threshold, we are positioned to generate more than $100 million in annual recurring high-margin subscription revenue moving forward. Brian McGee CFO and COO



Shimano

autonomous forklift picking up finished parts

Shimano's third fiscal quarter financial summary sees signs of consumer interest in bikes cooling but demand remains higher than it was before the pandemic.

In its Q3 report, Shimano has revealed that inventory for high-end bikes remains low with higher demands compared to lower-end bikes which have seen a drop in interest. Shimano did not note that in Europe despite some shortages inventory levels are reaching decent levels.

Shimano found in the first three-quarters of the year sales of components were up by 20.6% compared with the same time last year to reach 384,654 million yen ($2.59 billion). The companies operating income rose to 109,119 million yen, a 21.6% increase. Q3 sales saw a jump of 25.7% over this period last year.



Mips

MIPS headquarters

MIPS has stated a reduction in demand for bike helmets has led to its third-quarter sales decreasing by 39% year-over-year.

Third-quarter net sales reached SEK 113 million ($9.9 million), a drop from the SEK 185 million achieved in the same period last year. It will not only affect this quarter as MIPS president and CEO Max Strandwitz has stated that it could continue for the rest of 2022 and into the new year.

"Bike retailers around the world have generally built up too high inventory levels of bikes and bike accessories and therefore helmet manufacturers pulled the hand brake in terms of helmet manufacturing ahead of next season.

"We believe that this sub-category (bike) will return to growth driven by strong trends in e-bikes, commuting and people wanting to spend more time outdoors. We still see a high interest from our customers wanting to launch new products within the bike sub-category. Therefore, we are confident in our continued investments in bike."

The lower third-quarter results were expected by MIPS as last month the company predicted a revenue decrease with Max Strandwitz stating this was because "we realized that we had underestimated the speed and the magnitude of the slowdown in the bike sector."



Garmin


Garmin has seen a 4% year-over-year decrease in its latest report with the Fitness segment dropping by 18%.

The decrease in revenue is said to be caused by lower demand for indoor cycling and advanced wellness products as the latest quarter reports a drop from $1.19 billion last year to $1.14 billion. The Fitness segment which includes GPS devices, power meter pedals, indoor trainers and more fell from $342 million to $280 million.

bigquotesRevenue was negatively impacted by the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar. Despite this significant headwind, gross margin expanded and operating margin remained solid. Looking forward, we are lowering our revenue outlook for the remainder of the year consistent with the trends we are experiencing, while also raising our EPS guidance on an improving margin outlook. We believe that our strong lineup of innovative products and vertical integration strategy will allow us to remain strong in this challenging economic environment. Cliff Pemble, Garmin president and CEO



Thule

Thule Velospace

The Thule Group has seen net sales drop by 23% year-over-year as high stock levels lower demand for bike products.

Third-quarter net sales for Thule reached SEK 2.13 million ($196.3 million), a fall from SEK 2.77 million last year although this was in line with a mid-quarter financial statement from CEO and President Magnus Welander.

Following the report CEO and President Magnus Welander said: "The coming quarters, as already communicated, we will be facing a challenged market with a greater uncertainty in regards to how consumers' purchasing desire is impacted in an uncertain world as well as retailers that will strive to keep inventory levels low."

Earlier this month Thule's Americas division laid off 34 employees across management, product development, and manufacturing divisions.



We will continue to update this article as more revenue reports are released.


338 Comments

  • 423 5
 The COVID bike bubble has burst, who'd have thought it?! [/Sarcasm]

It was a perfect storm of temporary inflated demand clearing out stocks at a time when they couldn't be replenished, then as stock levels started to pick back up, the demand collapsed flooding the market again with 2nd hand stock after some businesses has upped production rates, and taken on those associated costs.
My only hope is that businesses interested in serving the cycling industry were smart enough to use those boom time profits to weather this storm, and the parasitic equity firm conglomerates get bit hardest and remove their price-gouging claws from our sport.
  • 26 300
flag jimoxbox (Oct 31, 2022 at 1:31) (Below Threshold)
 Chill out swampy
  • 55 151
flag bulletbassman (Oct 31, 2022 at 3:19) (Below Threshold)
 Most of the industry was smart enough to sell to investment groups that got all that free trump money.
  • 166 3
 Rising cost of living and rising bike prices are going to harm the bike industry in a big way. It’s not a poor man’s sport anymore!
  • 23 1
 @jimoxbox: they're not wrong though are they..
  • 117 3
 @trifecta: it never was
  • 9 1
 @trifecta: Not necessarily. since a few like Guerilla Gravity were able to make a living during the down turns of bike supply & gain a foot hold by being able to make bikes in house when others couldn't.

If you were a small company with the ability to continue production as high volume brands waited on mega shipments off shore, it may have helped. Other brands like Cane Creek, DVO & maybe Hope might have shown an increase?

@Ed Spratt it would be nice to know if that were true. A little light can't hurt
  • 101 11
 "My only hope is that businesses interested in serving the cycling industry were smart enough to use those boom time profits to weather this storm"

LOL, I can guarantee they used all of the profits to give their execs nice fat bonuses and for stock buybacks. Why hang onto extra cash that'll be taxed when they can give it to themselves? When things slow down, they'll simply fire their workers, reduce investments in racing/sponsorships, etc. instead of reducing costs by lowering their own pay or bonuses. Welcome to the real world.
  • 11 14
 @trifecta: I bought a 2008 specialized enduro sl on ebay last month for 250£ quid total bargain.its been sat at the back of someone's garage for years.
  • 20 3
 We’ll said. About time for the turn to a consumers market. Tired of getting absolutely gouged at every turn.
  • 29 3
 @theberminator: Sweet! Good luck maintaining that relic!
  • 17 2
 @theberminator: a little expensive for a townie don’t you think?
  • 6 0
 @Kmccann137: so it's still associated with being a rich man's, self-supporting leasiure sport? I often see this dichotomy: rich man's leasiure sport or the poor man's last resort
  • 2 1
 @scott-townes: I Agree. They say what GM and the banks can do.
Why not them.
  • 12 15
 @lehott: if you are poor your first and last resort has always been a soccer ball.
  • 3 1
 You’re a poet bro
  • 6 13
flag Garrettfinn (Oct 31, 2022 at 10:43) (Below Threshold)
 @robertwuagneux: gauged because you’ve had to pay retail? Because you get way more for your $3-4k now then you ever have in the past
  • 12 1
 @trifecta: this! Not that it ever really was that affordable but now its crazy. When I brought my first ever new bike (2018 Slayer C50) I stretched my finances and paid 6.2K NZD. 4 Years later the equivalent is 10.5K. There is no way I could afford that now.
  • 3 1
 @jimoxbox: I enjoyed the swampy reference
  • 1 0
 @theberminator: Enjoy. It's pretty much a higher-spec pitch (as in, the FSR pitch), frame-wise. Definitely still serviceable.
  • 4 0
 Everybody is going to try and cancel gopro subscription after the subscribe and save 150, to combat this they will send you into an infinite loop of customer service representatives
  • 14 2
 A lot of people on this site don't understand basic business and economic principles.
  • 2 2
 >who'd have thought it?!

Literally everyone.
  • 2 0
 @trifecta: In fairness, it hasn't been a poor man's sport ever, really. It's just more expensive now. Maybe becoming a dentists-only sport?
  • 1 0
 @trifecta: just get a dj
  • 1 0
 @srambamthankyoumaam: My first brand name MTB was a Trek 3000 aluminum in 1992. I often wonder what that bike would cost now. Cantilever brakes, those basic wiggle pattern tires, tubes, basket pedals & Grip Shift 21 speed. Full rigid. I walked out as many times as I rode in but it was fun. Still have scar patterns on my calf muscle from the cantilever cable stabbing and digging in.

It made me look. Cheapest base model on Trek's site is $650 & comes with front shock & disc brakes. Even a full rigid kids 24" is $550.
  • 1 0
 @gtill9000: look up the % of college grads in general.
  • 1 0
 @scott-townes: nailed it! System rules.
  • 3 2
 @srambamthankyoumaam: Road Racing has, until recently, been a sport for the lower classes
  • 4 0
 @OnTheRivet: what???? Where??? Certainly not in the United States or Europe.
  • 4 0
 In Belguim, Northern France and the Netherlands it was a way out of the mines. Lots of early champions came from extremely limited means. That's why you had supportes clubs (still do)They would pool their money to buy a promising kid a race bike.
  • 1 0
 Yup good time to buy 1-2 year old bikes!!
  • 2 0
 When I pay $55 for a CHAIN, and $35 for brake pads I know it's not just these fun folks who are skimming:

"...parasitic equity firm conglomerates get bit hardest and remove their price-gouging claws from our sport."
  • 3 0
 @OnTheRivet: maybe in the 20’s to 60’s, but in the 70’s and on it’s been a rich kids sport.
  • 3 0
 @blowmyfuse: it's interesting. In '98 I bought an $800 fully rigid MTB with v-brakes. That's about $1500 today. Which gets me a decent Alu hardtail in Australian dollarydoos.
  • 2 1
 @wobblegoblin: what a rude elitist thing to say. grow up ass wipe
  • 1 0
 @BrianColes: Wow, shit on someone for buying a bike. big smart man you are.
  • 2 0
 @theberminator: sweet man! dont let these elitist clowns talk down to that, they are used to riding the bikes their parents bought for them.
  • 1 0
 @thebradjohns: mmmmm your 2018 slayer is hardly nipping at the heals of even a deore groupset now bud.
  • 1 0
 @wobblegoblin: I'm guessing 'recently' can/should mean 20ish years.
  • 1 0
 @jrocksdh: I don’t think bike racing was a poor kidsport 20 years ago, or even 50.
  • 1 0
 @wobblegoblin: have u seen the pics of tour de France guys way back..? They had tubes around there backs; loaves of bread in there shirts...these guys didnt have much $.
  • 2 0
 @jrocksdh: are you suggesting that 100+ years ago was recent???
  • 1 0
 @wobblegoblin: the steel frames from recent decades weren't too expensive.
Even the OG mt bikes with shimano(18-21etc) of early 80s were few $100s.
  • 2 0
 @jrocksdh: the first stump jumper came out in 1981 and cost $750…sounds cheap until you plug that into an inflation calculator = $2,458.84 in 2022 dollars…
  • 1 0
 @wobblegoblin: The counter argument is we're not realizing the cost savings from economies of scale.

Bike and part consumers SHOULD be seeing price drops now that they're selling large(r) volumes.
  • 119 2
 What goes up must come down. Now don't be d*cks to your employees, race teams, and customers now that things will be back to or slightly slower than normal.
  • 87 4
 unpopular opinion those retailers that treated people like shit when the boom was in full flow also ,
  • 1 3
 @Compositepro: which ones?
  • 41 2
 Norco already cancelled their race teams
  • 3 55
flag porkchopsandwich (Oct 31, 2022 at 6:35) (Below Threshold)
 @bashhard: Source
  • 1 0
 @Compositepro read my mind.
  • 5 0
 @Compositepro: I don’t go to shops if they’re dicks, why would you?
  • 110 0
 Who could have saw this coming aside from pretty much everyone?
  • 16 1
 And most did see it coming, this isn't news to those running the decent companies, its only the very unprepared / new guys that will get burned here.
  • 9 0
 New guys?
You mean those born yesterday?
  • 11 1
 Now maybe bike prices will get more competitive !
COULD even see bike stuff coming down in price?
Also sale prices on any bike with headset routed cables?
  • 7 16
flag justanotherusername (Oct 31, 2022 at 4:34) (Below Threshold)
 @aljoburr: Bike prices more competitive to what? Skis? Cheese? Cars?
  • 21 0
 @justanotherusername: Have you seen the price of cheese lately...
  • 2 3
 @DizzyNinja: have you seen the price of Lurpac? They are security tagging it in the supermarkets now
  • 74 0
 I remember the early days of the pandemic when demand was skyrocketing. Shimano didn’t do much hiring nor increased production a whole lot. Everyone complained about it like “why don’t they respond to the market- dumb!” Turns out they knew it was just a bubble, ramped up slowly, saw the reactions, and are still profitable post-pandemic. Increased revenue in fact…. These guys are pretty business savvy. No surprises for a centuries old Japanese company
  • 6 0
 It will be interesting to see what does well vs not in the coming years in terms of sales. I’m not surprised to see helmet and bike rack sales slowing down significantly as they aren’t high wear items and can last awhile. I’m more curious to see if a lot of the people who got into the sport in the last few years will be looking at upgrading their bikes as they start to wear. Bike tech and geometry has been stable for a few years now, so there will be less of a rush to get into the newest model, but there maybe a decent amount of upgrading from entry level bikes into the higher end. However, I’m one who’s looking forward to some good end of the year clearance deals like the old days.
Shops still seem to busy doing servicing, especially since so many of the new people don’t know how or care to work on their own equipment. Hopefully, that means local shops won’t need to look at layoffs.
  • 21 0
 @whambat: It wouldn't be the worst if people were happy with what they had.
  • 8 0
 @HB208: a little Buddhist sentiment of want what you have, not what you want.
  • 21 0
 @cuban-b: @cuban-b: As someone who worked for a Japanese company for a long time (including during the pandemic) I can tell you the Asian financial crisis is still very fresh in their minds. The good Japanese companies run a very tight ship to ensure they don't have to reduce staffing and cut corners on product. This can make for awkward conversations with retail customers when they're screaming for product, but better than going broke when the bubble bursts.
  • 9 0
 @cuban-b: I concur. Imho the biggest victims are going to be the shops that were forced to place stupendously huge pre-orders. They are the last one's in the chain that get stuck with a shop full of over priced bikes nobody is asking for anymore.
  • 6 1
 @Exbow: Some of the stock the shops ordered wont have even arrived yet too, if they cant cancel the orders they will be stuck with stock they ordered at a premium price just while demand drops and everyone else starts to sell cheap.
  • 6 0
 @cuban-b: We have seen time and again that Shimano is playing long games. Sometimes longer than the entire lifespan of trendy action-sport companies.
This can sometimes be annoying for us customers (*cough* 12-Speed MTB *cough*). But it seems to serve them well as a company.
  • 2 2
 @cuban-b: there was a quote from a Shimano manager saying that they do expect a higher demand in the future but can't scale the production in such a short time.
It's not that you need to hire only more people - you need a site + very specialized machines.

Not sure if they where just lucky enough that they couldn't react faster or if they where sure to be right but of course a mulit-million $ company having access to sales figures of pretty much the whole induscty has a better view on the market then small companies.
  • 2 0
 @cuban-b: It will be interesting to see how their strategy ends up working longer term. Sure they don't have a surplus of supply that some others are dealing with but they have lost massive market share to SRAM who was able to keep parts flowing to consumers through all of this AND has become the oem option for probably 80+% of new bikes.
  • 2 0
 @Bobsonolis: read the link I posted above.
  • 71 1
 In Japan, the Yen is now exactly the same value as the toilet paper you hoarded when Covid began. So sucks for imports.
  • 12 0
 funniest thing i have read for days
  • 39 1
 So, can I send you a 24 roll value pack of my finest, pillowy soft Charmin for an XT or XTR rear mech? I will throw in a few rolls of the only paper towels that matter, Viva, to cover shipping. Deal?
  • 6 36
flag zoobab2 (Oct 31, 2022 at 6:59) (Below Threshold)
 @jmhills: Shimano, their derailleurs are breaking with soft chewing gum alloy. I have seen so many of them breaking that I wonder how there was no PB article about it.
  • 14 0
 @jmhills: I feel charmin durability has gone down recently. A year ago I could blow my nose with charmin toilet paper, the latest batch and I'm left with TP flakes on my stash
  • 11 0
 @mick06: Kleenex is leaving money on the table by not just releasing tissue on a TP roll. Why have they not come to market with that yet? When I get sick, I grab a roll of TP. Never a box of tissue.
  • 5 14
flag cuban-b (Oct 31, 2022 at 8:05) (Below Threshold)
 @zoobab2: go back to Qanon
  • 8 1
 I got a tree branch stuck in my slx drivetrain on a speedy downhill. Didn’t hurt a thing but a spoke! My bubble gum is pretty tough. @zoobab2:
  • 26 0
 @jmhills: @jmhills: the problem is the new rolls are boost, and my TP holder is still 142. Can't find the old sizing anywhere.
  • 2 2
 @mick06: Charmin toilet paper actually clogs up the toilet when you flush. Buy the cheapest TP you can find. You're flush it down the toilet anyway. No pun intended.
  • 3 0
 @ACree: Give a local machinist a good six pack. They can mill it down to 142 for you. Well, provided you haven't bent the axle with a gnar, gnar rushed grab of the roll.
  • 3 0
 @zoobab2: 100% have the same question. Do they compressed shredded aluminum because it's lighter?
  • 6 0
 @CSharp: you guys have obviously not seen the electronic revolution that’s going on in toilets , no shit you can pay 2k min for a squirty electronic type you acoustic paper is dead
  • 2 0
 I give you the sram eagle if toilets www.duravit.co.uk/products/all_series/sensowash_slim.com-en.html not only that but designed by Philipe Starck
  • 1 0
 @Compositepro: In Demolition Man, they foreshadow the western society using sea shells. No more toilet paper and none of that techno-electro-squirt coming out of the toilet! It's sea shells! Big Grin
  • 1 0
 @Compositepro: So, SRAM gonna make the Eagle squirt out water in 13-speed settings? Probably needs a new XXD driver for that to work!
  • 2 0
 @ACree: with the level of blasting I do, I need that super boost roll!
  • 41 3
 Hold on tight people, the storm's coming. It'll be interesting to see where prices are next year. I'm guessing we'll see what proportion of the recent price hikes were necessary and how much was just companies exploiting the situation.
  • 27 47
flag justanotherusername (Oct 31, 2022 at 2:43) (Below Threshold)
 Prices will be exactly the same - the 'exploitation' narrative is largely bullshit, if prices drop too much the companies wont make a profit, that simple.
  • 27 1
 It'll be interesting to see how the used market will go next year and '24.
  • 79 16
 @justanotherusername: fun fact in the USA. 53% of the inflation is corporate profits.
  • 16 6
 @somebody-else: I can believe it - companies will usually try to maintain margin, if supply price increases they will increase selling price at their required margin which will result in higher profits, more sales also means more profit - plus of course greed

But as the owner of a small manufacturing business I can tell you right now that despite raising our prices by around 20% over the last 2 years our profit margin is not increased - profit may be up but we have sold more than pre covid so we have done more work, lots more work.

Things are now much slower and we expect profit to drop moving forward, but the amount of work we do will drop of course accordingly.
  • 6 0
 @justanotherusername: prices might stay the same for a while, but brands are starting to put stuff on sale to move excess inventory. Revel did a 20% off on some bikes and Knolly is having a “Big and Tall” sale on L and XL sized frames/bikes (just picked up a Tyaughton lol, the sale is pretty ridiculous).

Now I worry bike brands and shops are gonna panic and dramatically reduce the inventory they have on hand and we’ll just repeat all this in a few years
  • 9 2
 @BamaBiscuits: Sale prices and RRP are a different story - we will see some pretty big sales going on over the coming months as those that hold inventory try to shift it and turn it to cash.

Shops are probably in the worst position, as usual, they don't have the margin to clear out stock but at the same time probably cant hold onto too much if things severely slow down.
  • 2 0
 I think you're right on that one as clearly the inventory arround is not moving very fast (parts or complete bikes). Retailers will heavily rely on sales to move volume out the door unlike the past COVID years and some of these sales already started. Black Friday/Boxing day could be interesting this year to grab a few parts at a discounted price.
  • 18 11
 @somebody-else: Fun fact 3% of people use 5 to 6% of their brain 97% use just 3% and the rest goes down the drain, but 97% think with 3% 100% of the time. More importantly 65% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot and 82.4% of people believe them whether they're accurate statistics or not.
  • 9 3
 @justanotherusername: this time around the inflation cycle things have been different. Excuse the badly written article; www.salon.com/2022/10/19/katie-porter-pulls-out-chart-at-hearing-to-show-corporate-greed-is-the-biggest-driver-of-inflation_partner You have probably been operating much closer to the way things should be.
  • 11 0
 @j1sisslow: if you are gonna quote Todd Snider, don’t butcher it at least.
  • 1 2
 @somebody-else: Yea no doubt, being an absolutely tiny business we are completely different to the giants likely being referred to.

There had to be some element of guilt at play here, definitely and once it starts to contribute to inflation it can spiral out of control as all elements in the chain scramble to maintain their margin to compensate.

It would be interesting to see at what stage in the product life cycle they believe most of the cost is being added.
  • 2 1
 @topherdagopher: it would not let me submit the copy and pasted lyrics, so I butchered it.
  • 4 0
 @justanotherusername: Business' of your size might not be profiteering, however there are a lot of products that have doubled over the last few years and not all of that increase can be put down to increased costs, which are probably around 20-30%, similar to yours.
  • 2 0
 My bet same or higher, because they are plenty of sucker for those 10k bikes.
  • 6 7
 Imagine thinking something other than the current administration caused inflation...
  • 5 1
 @thustlewhumber: Hopefully I'm reading this wrong but, are you trying to say the current US administration caused global inflation?
  • 1 1
 Prices will go up sharply, with high inflation rates all over the world.
  • 2 1
 @FaahkEet: They definitely haven't done anything to help, that's for damn sure.
  • 3 4
 @MikeGruhler: I'm sure your well informed and fully researched explanation that isn't based on right wing hate media opinion will explain it all.
  • 4 4
 @FaahkEet: Excuse me? Are you doing well, do you need a hug? Seriously, you need help. Your sorry attempt at trolling shows how unhappy you really are, no one cares...and your f'ing stupid if you think the US Gov't hasn't had a part in the global situation. I don't see sides, both are pretty derailed on what there jobs really are and who their supposed to be helping. The fact that you're remark to a complete stranger stating a fact anyone can see shows how f*cked it all is, but thx for showing how politically deranged you are. As well, I stopped voting after Bush Jr got in office so I'll sit by and watch all ya'll burn this bitch down.
  • 36 1
 The $10k+ bike became a staple of the PinkBike review... I'm ready for it all to come back down to Earth
  • 14 9
 Yea right, you will 100% be seeing more $15k bikes going forward and there will be plenty of people still buying them.
  • 14 13
 @justanotherusername: lets be honest here. Many of the $15k bikes are being bought up by those in the industry, working in the shops getting Pro-Deals, etc. So they need to price those bikes into the stratosphere so that after pro-deals, they are still making a decent margin.

Sure, there are some regular constomers walking into a shop to buy $10k-$15k bikes. But I have to think that the large majority of those top-end bikes are bought under a pro-deal compared to a retail sale.
  • 22 5
 @neons97: I can almost assure you that is not true.
  • 19 3
 @neons97: For sure not true. If you know anything about the industry, it's that the employees get paid squat compared to the rest of the world.

Pro deal or not, they are not buying the majority of high end bikes.
  • 6 1
 @bikebasher: Maybe that's just my little bubble then. But the shop/industry guys are the ones with all the fanciest, most expensive bikes around here. Pretty much all riding Factory Level Suspension, XTR, AXS, etc.

And when I say "industry", I mean to include those in affiliate industries that also get pro-deals (e.g. other Outdoor gear sectors, influencers, ski/bike patrol, bike park/ski resort staff, etc.).
  • 4 0
 10k bike not going anywhere. There will always be demand for a premium product and always undiscerning consumers that assume the more you pay the better it is.
  • 7 0
 @justanotherusername: For sure.

Pretty much nothing over XT/SLX or GX/NX but nobody working in a shop is rocking full AXS XX, flight attendant with Zipp wheels unless they are a racer and sponsored.
  • 4 0
 @neons97: I'm a shop mechanic, my bike has mostly top-spec everything. I can categorically tell you most of it was bought second hand, very little bought at trade.
  • 4 0
 @neons97:
As somebody in the industry, that's very much not true.
Us staffers definitely have nicer bikes than our peers earning similar wages elswehere (obviously), but as for us being the bulk of the people buying those $15+ bikes. No. Not even close. Not even CLOSE to close.
  • 3 9
flag MarkJ70 (Nov 4, 2022 at 6:36) (Below Threshold)
 Where do you want to compromise? It’s just inflation in my opinion. I normally build by bikes, but it still comes out pretty close to 8-9k if you want a decent trail bike under 29lbs. Carbon Frame $3000, Carbon Wheels with decent hubs $2000, Fork $1000. Now you still need dropper, drivetrain, brakes, etc. it just adds up unless you are willing to ride around with a > 30 lb bike, which in my opinion makes no sense unless you are taking lifts.
  • 2 1
 @MarkJ70: I typically stick to alloy, as I am very rough on my bikes. I also build my bikes and it usually comes out to ~$3k. I buy used and do a complete tear down and rebuild. New bearings, paint, fresh suspension, frame up rebuild. Cost of ownership is a different story. I mean I probably break ~$1k in parts over a given year, which is to be expected riding 2k+ mi every year. Reading $10k bike reviews where holes get punched in the carbon, and that price being a starting point is no for me. I can't imagine going full send and paying for the damage imposed on a bike that starts that expensive. Sadly, I am not good enough of a rider where I have sponsors paying the bill.
  • 9 0
 @MarkJ70: a decent trail bike requires $2k carbon wheels and a $1k fork? Do you also think you need to drive a $70k Audi to the trailhead?
  • 2 2
 @bikebasher: my buddy is the purchaser at a large shop in Central Florida. Once a year every full time employee has the opportunity to purchase a bike at 50% off of cost. So yeah, really easy for guys to load up on 10k bikes for $1500-$2000 every year. Hell I bought at least 2 bikes from him in 10 years that I never would have been able to afford if it wasn't for the fact that he gets them so cheap and is willing to help a friend. Not all shops can do this but if you run a highly successful business then you can do these kind of things for your employees. Salesman at this shop can easily earn 60k-100k a year so there that. It's nice when you have the triathlon capital of the world in your back door. He's had customers drop almost 100k on multiple tri-bikes and full gear for a race then bounce back to Brazil with it. It's all about the shop,location and clientele. Most shops fail because people are avid cyclists not avid businessmen. Passion doesn't make money, work does.
  • 1 1
 @MikeGruhler: That is one generous and unusual shop willing to sell a $10k bike for $1500-$2k

For a start the cost on a $10k bike is going to be of $6-7k, sometimes more so the shops essentially giving each employee about 4-$5k every year, nice bonus.

Or the whole story / your ‘buddy’ is full of bullshit which is more likely.
  • 2 0
 @justanotherusername: Look up orange cycle in Florida, one of if not the biggest shop in Florida. Regularly one of the best performing shops in the country, there numbers are insane. (Thet can easily do 100k a day during x-mas and 30-60k on a regular day) Sorry if my napkin math was a bit off but they damn sure give there employees 50% off of cost once a year.
Why would I need to lie, if you notice I speak from my "real name" no need to hide from what I have to say unlike the majority of you on here. Easy to talk shit when you cowardly hide behind a fake name and/or country flag.
  • 2 0
 @justanotherusername: Have you heard of a pro-deal? I worked in a shop years ago, and manufacturers give shop employees below-cost pricing on many items. They know that the employee on the showroom floor has more influence on a customers purchase decision than sponsoring some big name high-buck racer. So if the shop guy is riding Brand X...they can influence a customer to also try / buy Brand X instead of Brand Y.

As for the shop giving their employee 50% off cost on one bike a year...that's a very generous shop. My shop only ever gave me cost, or access to all the pro-deals from all the manufacturers/distributors.

I have one buddy who is a rep for a big mountain bike brand. He gets 1 personal demo bike a year at 70% off. Sells it at the end of each season for ~30-40% off, makes a small profit, and rolls it into next years bike.

My original statement that the majority of the $10-$15k bikes are bought by industry may be off. I'm now seeing that you guys see a lot of regular joe's on the trails buying $15k bikes. But...in my area of the world...pretty much every outdoor industry employed person (shop, brand reps, distributors, corporate outdoor industry, etc.) is riding these $10k+ bikes (except maybe the 16 yr. old kid who just got their first part time job).
  • 1 0
 @neons97: Yup, well aware of 'pro deals' - that's how I bought my recent e-bike infact, and my last bike, and one before..

I didn't get any below cost, I am sure some brands may do this for certain people (see reps) but I have found it mainly to be component / accessories that do - Raceface recently had a decent sale through silverfish for staff for example.

Reps are a special case I think - they sell the brand to shops vs staff selling the brand to customers, I know reps get hefty discounts / freebies etc - why wouldn't you if you were a brand as after all they are selling for you, I suppose you could almost call it a bribe of sorts.

Here in the UK shop's are pretty tight - cost + vat is the usual from what I have seen which often is around a 20% discount from retail.
  • 1 1
 @neons97 @justanoutherusername: It's hard for anyone to believe the numbers this shop pulls. Full time mechanics easily make over 30k plus a yr, pro deals and there once a year deal. Don't get me wrong, it's probably one of the hardest shops to work for, no one gets Saturdays off ever and your non-stop hustling all day. Mechanics work after hrs to finish up all the service. There was a time during the pandemic that there entire showroom was nothing but bikes in for service which is crazy cause they have the largest showroom in Florida. If you want to be a successful shop owner then this place is worth checking out and seeing all the benefits they offer there customers that keep them coming back for decades. They opened in the 70's. Multi generation customers.
  • 26 0
 Remember when everyone was mad that shimano wasn't expanding during the Great Bike Boom?
  • 1 7
flag tacopop (Oct 31, 2022 at 13:59) (Below Threshold)
 This article said Shimano's sales are up not down. It says they're selling 20-25% more this year than last year.
  • 8 1
 @tacopop: the point being that shimano didn't over extend themselves and did business intelligently. Sure the ran out of some stock, but they knew 2023 and 2024 were not going to show the same growth 2020 and 2021 had. While other companies are going to be sitting on dead stock and last years models, shimano gets do do business as usual. Just another Monday for them.
  • 3 3
 @tacopop: easy to be up when you have had literally 0 supply of most brake and drivetrain components for 2+ years except for OEM.

If it wasn't for microspline hubs on one of my bikes I would have given up on shimano altogether and gone over to Eagle.
  • 28 1
 Maybe a system built on constant growth isn’t sustainable?
  • 3 0
 Ya think?
  • 1 0
 If only politicians could grasp that concept
  • 25 2
 Covid cyclists falling out of love or sighns of global recession............?
(more than likely both)
  • 31 15
 Its not recession.. it's corporate and government robbery. Don't forget that! Bring back the gallows and guillotines I say!!
  • 6 3
 In 2007, I read a financial report from the US financial guy. His forecast, "2008- recession, 2014-2015, bounce back, 2020-2021, new recession." It's a natural thing in commerce.
  • 6 1
 @oldschool43: yep 8-10 year cycle. I know NOTHING of global finance but even I know that
  • 7 2
 @oldschool43: I mean a global pandemic leading to massive supply issues and then a war leading to more supply issues was always going to lead to an economic downturn. The question will be how bad.
Usually the worst recessions come from something largely unexpected but I think everyone with after a brain will have expected this so I don't think it will be as bad as 2007-2008.
  • 1 0
 @OliOliOli: finally someone said it out loud! inflation? Not goint to happen in the UK tho...maybe France
  • 23 2
 Brake pads still out of stock…
  • 13 0
 I think the used bike market is going to be flooded with overpriced USED stuff from people trying to get their money back which is never going to happen.
  • 16 0
 For which brake? There are so many different third party brake pads available these days, there sure must be something for your brake.
  • 3 0
 Nukeproof brake pads are really effing good, problem is I have to order them from CRC... but they have inventory for both my bikes calipers
  • 9 0
 Try the pads from MTX, been impressed with their gold compound pads. An actual upgrade power-wise from the SRAM metallic ones on my Code brakes.
  • 3 11
flag andrewfif (Oct 31, 2022 at 8:31) (Below Threshold)
 Galfer usa pads are chocolate. Everybody loves chocolate. I want this phrase to catch on.
  • 6 1
 Trucker co pads are great. $26 for 4 pairs too.
  • 1 0
 @chileconqueso: are they super loud for your setup? I have TRP brakes and shimano rotors and my Truckerco pads are very noisy (semi-metallic). They perform great otherwise.
  • 1 1
 Try having to find pads when you run a SRAM front and Shimano rear brake...
  • 8 0
 @andrewfif: Are you saying that Galfer brake pads melt at low temperatures?
  • 9 0
 @andrewfif: Stop trying to make chocolate happen.
  • 2 0
 No mine are quiet. In a shimano slx 4 piston. @FensterM:
  • 2 1
 @andrewfif: Try low-fat next time. Usually these are a bit harder and also grippier than the greasy pads.
  • 2 0
 @bocomtb: haha the green ones do, but they sure have some good bite! I love the green in the front and purple in the back. TRP blue is a lot like Galfer green.
  • 1 1
 @VtVolk: I love you and I'm sorry, I'll stop
  • 1 1
 @vinay: but I need that robust flavor! Maybe you're onto something though
  • 17 2
 There's a shit storm coming lads...
  • 4 1
 No Bodies listening yet, You know it & I know its coming lets hope its not too bad!
  • 4 3
 @Fastfish11: @Fastfish11: The people running the companies know full well a slowdown is coming, the better ones predicted it, the not so good ones have known for months now anyway.

I have worked with a few people in certain parts of the bike manufacturing industry and they have been altering forecast and having orders with them altered for the past 6 months.

If you have over-extended you may be in some trouble here, but its likely you can just liquidate stock and be back to it either way.

I do not think we will see a flurry of good bankrupt b
  • 3 0
 @justanotherusername: I think current policy with people i know is liquidating to get cash back in the bank
  • 4 2
 @Compositepro: Yup, I have heart this 'black friday' is going to be a good one for customers with some brands holding 6 months + more stock than they need.
  • 5 0
 Honestly I don't think it will be as bad as 2007-2008. Everyone in business sees an economic downturn coming which will probably prevent it from getting that bad. 2007-2008 very few saw it coming so very few where prepared for it.
  • 6 1
 @93EXCivic: I am not so sure - in 2007-2008 the issue was primarily caused by finance and banking, inflation was only around 3-4% and an interest rate cut followed to counter the recession.

Now though, inflation is 10%, interest rates are rising & difficult to drop them due to inflationary pressure, we have a war in Ukraine and we are following a real spending boom / period of overconsumption - This downturn is going to hit the bottom up not top down.

I hope you are right but I think this ones going to hurt.
  • 6 0
 @justanotherusername: I just look at historical data of recessions. The worst are always the unexpected. I mean this could well be outlier but if people in power in business see it coming it generally reduces the effect. If businesses are able to avoid larger layoffs with decent planning and unemployment rates stay generally low I just can't see it turning into an 2007-2008. But I am not economist so this could all age like milk.
  • 4 1
 @justanotherusername: Recessions always hurt, and hurt mostly the people who are already hurting (mostly the shrinking middle, and the lower classes).

But I think it will hurt less than '08.
  • 1 1
 @JSTootell: I think you guys in the US are already weathering this better than us in the Uk and Europe so maybe there is going to be more of a geographical nature to this one.

We are really feeling the energy prices here for example.
  • 4 2
 @justanotherusername: Location may well have a big effect. The US dollar is strong, unemployment is very low and inflation is lower then other places in the world.
  • 4 2
 @justanotherusername: Don't forget, the 07-08 financial crisis was triggered by the US central bank increasing interest rates too fast, and then we all discovered the word leverage
  • 1 1
 @justanotherusername: You wouldn't know it from the news. According to the talking heads, America is totally falling apart, the rest of the world is totally okay and laughing at us.
  • 7 0
 @JSTootell: Check in on the state of the UK - we are a complete and utter basket case here, we barely have a functioning government and our pound isnt far of parity to the dollar, but we dont earn as much.
  • 1 0
 top and bottom of it is people are going to pay to feel less hungry and warm thn spunk money on a hobby that has probably peaked and gone
  • 1 1
 @Compositepro: And before you get chance to sell the bike to buy a pack of butter some nobhead will steal it from your garage / van / out of your hands too
  • 5 1
 @justanotherusername: The situation we have now is also mostly caused by greed in finance & banking. Put a stop on excess profits in oil / energy / banking industry to curb inflation - simple. Food / house / energy are the main drivers of costs for the majority of people. Their profits doubled and quadruppled at the same time as inflation....coincidence? It's right in front of us but we are being brainwashed by their propaganda in media etc. Instead the "government" adds fuel to fire by rising rates and making lifes of majority of people even more painful...
  • 4 0
 @skywalker909: I don't disagree with some of that, some of it I do because its factually incorrect, e.g. the government does not control the rise in rates.

Some of these issues are not in the control of companies though - the war in Ukraine has meant food cost increases for example which are unavoidable and raw materials like the aluminium I personally purchase cost a lot more than before, partly due to Ukraine again and partly supply issues.

Its a complicated situation - not all companies are profiteering, not everything is Covid, not everything is Brexit, not everything is the goverment, etc etc - its bits of everything.
  • 1 0
 @justanotherusername: Everyone is throwing a fit about how their country is screwed up, while totally ignoring that the entire world is facing these same problems.
  • 3 1
 @justanotherusername: the government does control rise on interest rates here in the UK through the Bank of England. Not sure what it is in Canada, where I presume you live.
A war, just like COVID, is a perfect opportunity for greedy moralless people in power to make some coin. It's always been this way. Slap "Because of War in Ukraine" which insitagetes emotions and compassion - nobody gonna question that. Add bogeyman "Putin" to it so you have something to hate and job is done. You can hike these energy costs by 300%. As I said, the majority of costs such as food / energy / fuel for the majority of people are controlled by greedy conglomerates who are after profit and power only. The war is almost irrelevant.
  • 2 1
 @skywalker909: I live and am I am from the UK

The government and BOE are independent in terms of decision making - the government has no control over interest rates, this is the same for most countries with a central bank.

Get some basic knowledge before turning everything to conspiracy you nut job.

www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/who-owns-the-bank-of-england
  • 4 0
 @justanotherusername: no need to get agressive. There is no consipracy. Common sense and some general knowledge.

BoE is owned by the UK Government! It's a fact. Do you really think the government doesn't significantly steer their decisions?! Or that there is anything that's "independent" especially when it comes to money? If you do then we have nothing to talk about. Keep living in your version of reality, hope it serves you well.

Brexit was blaming the imigrants, now we blame Putin. Yet we get shafted by the same greedy bastards who call the shots. Greed has no limits that's the universal truth you can always apply.
  • 1 1
 @skywalker909: I’m not being ‘aggressive’ - you are talking rubbish and trying to assert it as fact - none of the utter shite you are talking is common sense and general knowledge.

I knew you would answer the BOE question by suggesting another conspiracy, it’s predicable to the letter - as you say it appears we have nothing to talk about and I would prefer it that way, there are so many occasions where people / companies are proven to be acting in nefarious ways without having to paint conspiracy everywhere.
  • 1 0
 @justanotherusername: whatever you say mate. Just keep repeating it to yourself often otherwise you may stop believing in your VR. Enjoy your life.
  • 3 1
 @skywalker909: Cool story, off you pop to get moist over some vintage Alex Jones videos.
  • 1 1
 The shitstorm coming will make everybody forget about riding bikes the first place. Its looking grim friends
  • 2 0
 @justanotherusername: good conversation
I cant speak for other countries but here in the US, the government literally does control interest rates.
The Federal Reserve sets the rate at which banks can borrow money. They have enacted 4 consecutive, 3/4s of a point interest rate hikes in the past several months. For the first time in history.

This after they inexplicably let rates sit at the mid 2's (!!) during the pandemic even though people were buying houses like crazy, at any price, due to interest rates being lower than at any point in history.
Then, they gave out well over a trillion dollars in forgivable grants, including to airlines, pro sports franchises, churches, and politicians.

We personally benefitted from it also, greatly, but only because it felt foolish not to. But the writing on the wall was easy to read and we kept the money close to vest rather than buy new cars and vacations, like so many others did. Which only fueled further inflation.

AirBnB bookings were insane during Covid. People spent their stimulus money on vacations because, well, we Americans are stupid.
Somehow though, our dollar is higher against most currencies than at any point in my lifetime.
IMO, one result of the Feds financial malpractice is the gap between between haves and havenots (delineated primarily in terms of own home vs rent) increased exponentially in last two years. How younger people are ever going to be able to afford a decent house in a decent area, I do not know. Thats not good for a healthy society. Desperate people do desperate things, hence our crime rate increase.
Its a mess for sure
  • 37 22
 many useless brands and companies will be swept away. not the worst news.
  • 67 13
 Who would you say those are then, any examples of 'useless' brands?

Do you realise that behind the brand are normal people trying to make a living, they aren't pushing drugs.

Some of you guys are super strange to wish hardship on others that are doing absolutely no wrong.
  • 18 4
 @justanotherusername: As the old saying goes "Its nothing personal its business"
  • 10 7
 @KingPooPing: If you are actually involved in the business, sure, are you? IS singlespeedman? - If so then its your business.

That old saying doesn't stand though if you are just a bystander rubbing your hands at the prospect of others failure.
  • 19 2
 @singlespeedman is obviously just referring to companies selling derailleurs, shifters, and chainguides
  • 17 1
 There are hundreds and hundreds of brands in the bike industry, with a large number of them indeed not adding much value. However, probably 90% of the market is run by a small number of large, almost mono- or duopolist brands, like SRAM, Shimano, Fox, etc. To stimulate development and lower prices by way of competition, we need challengers to the big names. It's mostly the small companies that have low reserves and get in trouble now. And who is going to challenge SRAM and Shimano if brands like Advent go under? The same goes for suspension, with Fox and SRAM (Rockshox) running 90% of the market. Small innovative challengers going under is never a good thing for consumers.
  • 16 1
 @justanotherusername: every business doesn’t deserve to work. If the free market of good will dictated supply and demand, economic markets would collapse. Everyone can’t succeed, especially those with dumb products, weak marketing, and shit management.
  • 4 6
 @Mntneer: of course not, no need to get excited over bike companies going bust though, is there?

And I’ll ask you the same question - list some of the dumb companies that don’t deserve to exist for me in the bike industry.
  • 16 2
 @Mntneer: *Capitalism working as intended*

Random Pinkbike Commenters: No, not like that.

Everyone wants capitalism until it happens to their crappy business model.
  • 14 1
 @justanotherusername: I don't need bazillions of brands sell Asian junk at premum price, don't need another super grippy set of grips, no more gloves, shorts, 3d printed pump holders, funky socks, special shoe laces and all the rest.
Too many folks just buy that stuff from Asia, slap a "credible" brand name on it - no added value.
  • 8 0
 @justanotherusername: am involved in wholesale/distribution of "real" brands, numerous B/C brands and our own private label. Hardly any new brand is adding any value to the business.
  • 8 5
 @singlespeedman: You aren't involved in the industry then.

Name one of these brands you are happy to see disappear - go on, just give us a few brands you are happy to see go, nobody seems to want to say who they are happy to lose.

@Rokcore - Who said anything of the sort, I just questioned why people seem to get excited about it, failure is a fact of life, I just don't wish it upon people.
  • 3 0
 @justanotherusername: that’s not for me to decide, nor am I happy to see a business fail. The market decides
  • 3 3
 @Mntneer: Avoiding the question, nobody disputed the 'market' deciding upon business success / failure.
  • 4 8
flag wobblegoblin (Oct 31, 2022 at 7:10) (Below Threshold)
 @justanotherusername: Garmin, mips, cannondale, Kona, evil, e.13, crank brothers, hunt wheels, WTB, Deity, ENVE….
  • 4 1
 @justanotherusername: how am I avoiding the question? I just told you that it’s not my place to make that judgement. I stayed the reality of all businesses, which bike brands face as well.
  • 6 3
 @wobblegoblin: You think the companies on your list make dumb products and you would be happy for them to disappear?

Personally I think some of them are great and I use products from a few of them.
  • 4 8
flag justanotherusername (Oct 31, 2022 at 7:14) (Below Threshold)
 @Mntneer: Well thank you for stating the obvious and shying away from making a useful contribution then.
  • 5 1
 @justanotherusername: you’re expecting me to make a claim about businesses, but I won’t make that claim without intimate knowledge about their financial records and operations.

You’re over here saying things about normal people just trying to make a buck. I’m saying that none of that matters if your business sucks
  • 4 5
 @Mntneer: No, I am not doing that, you obviously missed the original post which was:

"many useless brands and companies will be swept away. not the worst news"

So I am asking which brands and companies do you find useless and would be happy to see disappear.

You are stating the obvious and completely avoiding the question, I am not asking you to make any claims about a companies finances.
  • 11 0
 @justanotherusername: apparel is one area that could use some "cleansing" pick a brand that charges over $100 for shorts.
  • 4 2
 @wobblegoblin: the only one I don’t agree with is Cannondale. While they aren’t in the spotlight a lot, they are always at the forefront of new tech and design.
  • 3 3
 @cuban-b: the lefty alone should of had them banned from making any mtb product ever again...lol
  • 2 0
 @justanotherusername: try telling that to glaxo......i dare ya
  • 1 2
 @justanotherusername: the new 5.10 shoes. Buh bye
  • 1 0
 @mi-bike: hilarious
  • 14 2
 Trailhead has been noticeable quieter for months.
  • 13 2
 "You will own nothing and you will be happy" - Klaus Schwab
  • 12 2
 Ebikes are dumb, long live real shredders. As our industry is "driven by ebike sales"

youtu.be/rM7N26SF6Tc
  • 7 1
 Did my economics podcasts spill over into my bike news? Bike industry just sounds like the worldwide markets at large, with the addition of weaker consumer demand (industry at large still shows decent consumer demand, surprisingly).

Hint: Analysts are predicting a brief improvement followed by a general recession in 2023 when the reserve banks of various countries "blink" when financial headwinds get stronger in the face of already-high interest rates.
  • 6 0
 This is pretty scary. I work in retail and in 2020-2021, our sales has been astronomically high. This year, the decline is steeper than transition spire's effective seat tube angle. Sales are down %40 this year. I was selling easily 2-3 TV's a day, a few laptops everyday and activating phones left and right. Now, It's down to 2-3 Tv's a week, 1 laptop a day if we're lucky and activate 1 cellphone plan in a week. Inventory is pretty normal now with the exception of some products that we haven't seen since covid.

The only thing that hasn't change is our shortage in staff and a lot of pretty pissed and impatient customer due to staff shortage.
  • 1 0
 We'll the good news is you can get all that crap online for a fraction of the price!
  • 6 0
 Most people will get almost as much joy from a $350 used bike as a $3500 new bike. I know I do, as I have both. Get a bike within your means, a guitar, and some beers (evening) or coffee(morning) and enjoy your life! Economic cycles come and go and we're all going to die at some point anyway. Happy Friday!
  • 8 0
 maybe if they lower the ridiculous prices of top end bikes the demand will increase again
  • 15 0
 Maybe not so much the top end stuff. Look at how much you have to spend to not get NX
  • 4 8
flag neons97 (Oct 31, 2022 at 6:36) (Below Threshold)
 I don't see top-end bikes dropping in price. My gut tells me that the large majority of top-trim bikes are sold to industry/shop employees under a pro-deal, so they need to ensure that every single one of those sales are still profitable.

It's the mid-range, GX/SLX bikes that will drop in price before the top-end bikes as a result.
  • 10 3
 It could be argued the prices of the mtb industry have been failing to keep people interested in the bigger markets.
  • 17 1
 i think The price hikes have almost worked the opposite way brands hoped - theyve endured the cost upfront and hoping to recover through price rises but now people are not as interested in paying big $$$ for a damn push bike --- my opinion of course....

Many places in NZ are struggling to get rid of 2022 bikes now.... with massive sales happening.(even on some new 2023 bikes)
  • 15 2
 @HeatedRotor: there's no way I'm buying a new bike for years... Not untill I can buy a bike that has the wheel size I want.. an not untill I can order a bike or frame that is in stock ready for despatch.. There is no FKNG way I'm pre ordering for 6 months to then be told another few months.. an another few months
  • 15 14
 @HeatedRotor: The brands raised prices largely because they had to - where does this conspiracy that the whole industry sat down and raised prices together and all at once to 'rip off' the customer come from?

Have you completely missed the effect of inflation on almost every single thing we buy right now, from cheese to bikes to cars etc.
  • 8 11
 @justanotherusername: You make it sound like there's an Inflation Fairy that goes around sprinkling inflation dust on things. It's a decision producers and services make, there's no conspiracy needed.
  • 15 6
 @sonuvagun: No, I make it sound like inflation has hit every product and industry globally, it isn't something unique to the bike industry, it isn't an industry conspiracy.
  • 11 2
 @justanotherusername: Don't worry, some of us understand that shipping and material costs is/was the big reason for the price hikes in the industry...
  • 6 2
 @sonuvagun: while a lot of companies misuse them by overcompensating their prices (oil companies for example), worldwide inflation is usually triggered by material issues, like, I don't know, personnel issues (COVID), transportation issues (lockdowns), scarcity in necessary resources (oil and gas embargoes) and the price hikes that go with them (energy costs). Do the above remind you in anyway of the current situation?
  • 6 0
 @Mac1987: you can add the massive increase in the price of raw Alu in that, I work in the Alu industry an prices are through the roof ATM.

The question is....... do we think prices are going to go down when/IF gas,oil,raw materials shipping labour goes down
  • 4 2
 @justanotherusername: Absolutely no one suggested there was a conspiracy. Heaven knows why you keep using that term.
  • 4 3
 @sonuvagun: Heaven is full of conspiracies.
  • 2 0
 @Mac1987: You wrote that as though I claimed otherwise.
If we don't know what investments manufacturers had made prior to our current state of affairs or what contracts they had in place then we are speculating as to the degree they have been forced to raise prices.

Of course companies are going to say "We've only raised our prices because we had to." Some of them are telling the truth and some of them aren't. Is this really that contentious an idea???
  • 1 1
 @sonuvagun: practically all of them are telling the truth regarding causes, since the current problems regarding energy, raw materials and transportation are felt by all companies. But like I also said, you're right that some of them might use the situation as an excuse to increase prices even further.
  • 3 0
 @Mac1987: I can't speculate with anything approaching insider knowledge. But I see the point you're making.

To your point: It might be curious is to take comparable models of both small and large makers and compare the price jumps. I'd think less buying power should mean the smaller players would have to hike their prices more. If that turned out not to be the case then it "might" reveal who's been greedy....or it might not and it's an idea in need of refinement.
  • 2 1
 @sonuvagun: or the small players bumped prices because they had to and the large players because they could.
(even though percentage-wise the costs for large companies have probably increased the same as for small companies).
  • 2 0
 @Mac1987: Both scenarios are plausible; one of them seems more likely.
  • 5 1
 From what I understand, bikes are pretty amazing already so people don't really need to buy so much new stuff. Just some wear/maintenance parts (drivetrain parts, brake pads, lubes, tires etc) but if you're like me, you probably already have some stocked when you came across a good deal. So you can probably still ride, it may just take a bit longer to replenish your stock after you replaced a part. I can imagine this must suck for physical bikeshops though. What makes sense to have in stock and how to tell the world (bigger than your local audience) that you actually have this in stock? It is probably getting harder and harder to run a physical shop and have the right spares for the customer that just drops by and needs to have a bike fixed.
  • 4 0
 Get out of here with your common sense!

I was half joking comparing bikes to beanie babies in 2021. I witnessed many people new to the sport who had disposable funds and saw how scarce bikes were buying a new bike every month or two just because "nobody could get bikes" and they get to be That Guy. Most the people I know that were riding for years were upset about not finding brake pads and fork service parts, less about getting a new bike. Most outdoor hobbies saw the same thing.
  • 5 0
 There needs to be an in depth analysis of the PB marketplace, it is a very interesting indicator of what direction the market/industry as a whole is going.

Time to hire a PB financial editor? Smile
  • 10 0
 Henry Quinney's cynicism is ideal for the dark times ahead
  • 2 0
 near me right now there are 300 bikes for sale. This time last year there was probably 30. So either people are upgrading or they are selling because they don't have time to ride and need to pay off debt.
  • 8 0
 Time to stop milking us, bike industry.
  • 4 0
 Many bike manufacturers did not want to increase production to meet demand during Covid because they felt demand would eventually decline. Shops sold out and were forced to prepay for bikes just to have something to sell. The shop owners are the ones left getting hurt. Unfortunate but the way some companies increases their pricing was insane. Hopefully pricing will come down.
  • 6 0
 jeez no new luxury yacht for CEO’s, that’s really too bad. Guess the 103foot one will have to do for now.
  • 8 2
 Right....

Half these reports I hear go something like this.... Company X only made a 23% profit when forecasting a 30% increase.
So they sell it that profits are down 7% of expected revenues.

But you step back and look at it and go.... wait a second... the company still made $300 million dollars in profit this quarter... so what if you expected 345 million.

So to make up that "loss" they've got to cut staffing or benefits in one shape or another. And overwork those that are left. Why? So they can get back to the percentages that they forecast so the C sweet can get those bonus'.

It's a broken system. Everything to keep the stock market happy. 70% of it is bullshit.

Like these freaking cash crabbing oil companies.... oh we didn't make what we expected to make this quarter. We only made $34billion this quarter in profits....
  • 1 1
 @onemanarmy: which companies are making 24% profits? Are they hiring?
  • 3 1
 @dexterfawkes: In the bike industry? Probably none. Companies in specialized services def make that much of a margin, if not more.
  • 2 0
 Dont confuse revenue and profits.
  • 4 1
 Now more than ever is the time to support truly rider owned brands and your LBS. It's gonna get bumpy and you the consumer gets to decide which brands stick around and which brands don't. Vote with your dollar and take your industry back.
  • 2 0
 Aye. Tis a crying shame I don't have many dollars to vote with, and that all of my local LBSes are either shitty chain stores or ultra snobs trying to sell me a $6k Pivot while telling me that they're not going to let me ride all the bikes I'm interested in because I'm supposed to just buy one.
  • 5 0
 Could it possibly be that the lack of sales and revenue is driven by the absurdity of mountain bike (and parts) pricing nowadays?
  • 1 0
 No. Top end is the only segment still selling really well.
  • 3 0
 I'm not a smart man, and not particularly well versed in business finances. I may be wildly off base here, but if you've been up 300% for the past two years, and your sales slow by 30% aren't you still 270% up meaning this isn't really a"loss"? I mean yes, it is less than before, but I don't really think I should be playing a sad violin for the industry.
  • 2 0
 When you've built a 5 year plan based on the new revenue, including way more staff and inventory, a backslide means you are fucked. I too, have no sympathy for those businesses who took full advantage of the increase in sales without planning for the pretty obvious crash that would come later on.
  • 2 0
 @pisgahgnar: Ah. Yeah, I didn't even consider that. The more you know and whatnot
  • 3 0
 Anyone else tired of mega-conglomerate parent companies squeezing every last micro-percentage of profitable growth out of once-rad companies? We used to make cool things for people, now it’s “more, moar, MOAR!!!”

Meanwhile, I bought a $500 freeride bike that was sick in 2008 and I’m having dangerous fun on it.

F*ck them, make MTB punk again.
  • 3 0
 Will be interesting to see if there will be price drops or manufactures just lower supply. As far as I know material cost are already coming down and so is shipping at least to some destinations.
  • 11 4
 They will lower supply to meet the new, lower demand.

Bicycles and bike parts arent forex, they dont go up and down every few months - pricing is what is it now, inflation is still at 10% in many european countries and usa, if anything prices may still continue to rise.
  • 3 0
 I don't think shipping costs are going to change much with diesel fuel the way it is, but maybe
  • 5 0
 Did Yeti totally miss the bubble? It seems like they have hardly released any new bikes since 2018.
  • 8 2
 Dentists and Lawyers are recession proof clients. Yeti doesn't miss bubbles. They make their own.
  • 3 0
 was at my LBS the other day; Yeti is one of the brands they sell. Not sure if Yeti "missed the bubble" but they do have new bikes coming within a few weeks and the prices will apparently be something else. 2023 frame only retail price on one of their existing models was way higher than the $5K CAN Trek wants for a Slash frame. And I'm not talking a few or even several hundred bucks more... LOL

That has always been Yeti's market positioning but will be interesting to see how that plays out if in fact we're moving to a more recessionary environment.
  • 2 0
 I got a 2022 Stumpy Evo frame for 2200 and a 2022 factory float grip 2 for 650. Carbon wheels will be 1k and hoping for some deals on brakes, drivetrain and cockpit this winter. Should be able to piece together a pretty top of the line bike for less than 6k. Used market is still pretty bonkers though.
  • 3 0
 Almost exactly the same here! I jumped at that 25% off Specialized had on the SJ Evo frame, just picked up a new 2022 factory 36 on sale for $670 and also found some NOS Roval Carbon wheels for under $1k. PNW just had 25% off as well so I picked up a new dropper, pedals, and grips. Reusing some drivetrain and brake components from my old bike should have me well under $5k. Gonna keep an eye out for black friday deals on brakes and AXS and probably jump on any deals.

You're right about the used market still being out of touch though. People want like $550 for a Rhythm take off but I can buy a new Lyrik Select for the same price with a warranty or be patient and find a factory for not much more..
  • 1 0
 @Bobsonolis: AXS is already on sale. Colorado cyclist has the gx AXS upgrade kit for a smidge over $400.
  • 1 0
 @bronson2point1: SPOT has AXS Eagle XX1 on sale for a steal of a price. They f*cked themselves and overbought. Now sitting on inventory that isn't going to move... ever. $580 for the shifter and RD seems pretty good

spotbikes.com/collections/components/products/sram-xx1-eagle-axs-12-speed-rear-derailleur
spotbikes.com/collections/components/products/sram-eagle-axs-controller
  • 2 0
 Yeah- and I would hope people would still simmer on the purchasing in the industry. The price gouging when supplies were low was no bueno by a lot of folks- and I get that materials, production and distribution all got more expensive for companies but the cost jumps we saw felt a little like crisis profiteering. Same with vehicles- that whole industry needs a reset.
  • 2 0
 Go ride MTB in Mexico or any 3rd world country and you'll see locals with outdated equipment, or just thankful to have anything remotely decent to ride. That will be America post stimulus and money printing fest in a few years. The USA you knew is over. A new normal is here and if you want to see our future go take a trip and ride with locals in Latin America. Do it while you can afford to travel by the way.
  • 3 0
 This plus economic downturn, we're going to lose some small businesses, at least in the USA. Support the smaller guys if/when possible!
  • 4 0
 Glad I got out back in May. Closed my shop donated $40k of product to non profits, sold the rest then moved to Mexico.
  • 6 0
 Write an article for PB, please. Really. This sounds like an interesting story!
  • 2 0
 @woofer2609: ha!!! Would not know where to begin. Thx for the encouragement though.
  • 1 0
 @road-n-dirt: Guessing no longer a priority but your shop website looks like you're still open. Did a non-profit take over the physical and virtual spaces?
  • 3 0
 I don't think MIPS has to worry much. It's late fall/winter/wetroot season and I'll be going through more than a few helmets.
  • 1 0
 Tough times make hard people. Tough economic times make better products. The cost of things sorts itself out in the end. I for one can't wait for all of the companies this will START. And what kind of cool stuff they can pull off. 2033 bikes will be so good.
  • 1 0
 I literally walked into a bike shop not to long ago and man oh man sale after sale after sale and the sad part is now they are telling the consumer not to buy a certain brand just because of their prices compared to others ouch
  • 1 0
 Hey @foxfactory ,

Please invest some of those increased sales earnings into engineering a 36 CSU that doesn't fail the CSU creaking test EVERY time I've brought it in for service. I've owned the precursor to the 32, the 34 and the 36. Only the 36 has given me problems and I'm and Int/Adv 155 lb rider. It's time to start making reliable products, Mr. Dennison.
  • 3 0
 here's hoping that will spill over to the National Parks/Forests/State Parks and they'll lose interest in those too....
  • 2 0
 waiting for all the 1st flat pandemic victims to sell their bikes asap and the massive group who bought bikes and they sit in the car port for 2 years to come up on resales
  • 4 2
 Health of the bike industry will be least of our problems come next year and beyond. Handing out unsupported currency like Halloween candy has consequences.
  • 1 0
 Time to sit back and watch as all these companies who didn't order well absolutely ruin the industry they claim to support. Look out bike shops, here come the DTC super deals on bikes you have on your floor at MAP.
  • 1 0
 Interesting that Fox is allowing their product to go on massive discounts across internet sellers like Jenson if their numbers are so strong. Makes you wonder if all is not as it is told here.
  • 3 0
 It's nice of GoPro to inform us that their subscription service is high margin (aka overpriced).
  • 1 0
 Slightly off subject but that Giant is a sweet looking bike! I know it's nothing really that special anymore like the old one with the maestro suspension, but it's lines are really nice looking.
  • 5 5
 Or people getting injured. Half my crew is out with overworked bodies, broken this, broken that, sickness, personal problems, busy families. Go hard until you can't, eh. It definitely shut me down.
  • 3 0
 So many like new used bikes on facebook right now.
  • 1 0
 wonder if we will be able to get framesets now. that would be nice. don't need your sram NX build kit and chinese wheels, thank you
  • 4 0
 How the turn tables.
  • 2 2
 Just saw a full xt ripmo that was an ex demo for 2 grand at fanatik in bellingham. It’s been there for weeks they said. Either people realize ibis suck or the bubble is gone forever
  • 3 1
 Best trail bikes being made & have been for 3-4 years. Everything falls short for a reason or two.
  • 1 1
 @Gregstinson: lmao your funny
  • 1 0
 Go rode your bike, it’s just another economic cycle, it’ll repeat a few more time in our lifetime, more for you young gunsSmile
  • 1 0
 oh no who would have thought that consumer interest would fall after brands keep making things a lot more expensive for practically no benefit
  • 1 0
 Could one of the reasons be that literally everything in the biking industry is ridiculously overpriced? Remember when specialized tires were affordable?
  • 1 0
 I'm still quite happy to be riding my 2018 Intense Primer. It came with alloy wheels AND a free e13 carbon wheelset...for $3400 shipped. And a full torque wrench set.
  • 2 0
 Unavailable components and spares incoming. Fill up your own storage
  • 1 0
 I've been doing that for the last 18 months as Shimano parts have been so scarce and it's only just begun to get back to normal again...
  • 2 2
 Autoshift from Shimano using basically 6 year old di2 derailleurs is starting to make a lot of sense. God I hate Shimano and I use most of their products lol.
  • 2 0
 I wonder if Santa Cruz bikes will start realigning their prices finally?
  • 1 0
 There are lots of bikes everywhere, you just have to buy a broom for the cobwebs.
  • 1 0
 I hope this means that one is able to buy a Santa Cruz bike in EU without waiting for 1-2 years.
  • 1 0
 There is going to be a shit ton of ebikes on the market as those types of "riders" move on to the next fad.
  • 1 0
 well I am still waiting for the PLETHORA of 2 year old pandemic purchases with one flat tire to show up on resales
  • 1 0
 And not biting at bike dealers selling MSRP - call me when we're ~30% off and we can talk.
  • 1 0
 All I want is good shimano stuff in stock regularly, not have to be frantic.
  • 1 0
 A reminder that my experience of mountain biking has nothing to do with what most ppl on this website do
  • 3 2
 I think you mean billions of SEK in thule's numbers. A SEK is about 10c.
  • 9 0
 Thanks for teaching me about seks.
  • 4 0
 @barp: I want to know where to get seks for 10c though.
  • 4 0
 @bananowy: Look at those hands of yours, they offer tight grip, low maintenance cost, DIY type of service billions of customers are happy with. Go know use the knowledge you've just aquired.
  • 2 0
 @bananowy: I don't think you want to bargain in that regard. I don't think you need to pay top exorbitant amount, but you don't want to skimp either. quality on a budget
  • 1 0
 One step forward, two steps back.
  • 1 0
 This is just the type of reading I love to start my week out with.

/S
  • 1 0
 Lol...now these companies will need some muscle milk to survive.
  • 1 0
 Business goals: Don't sound corporate on press releases

Checkity check
  • 1 0
 What we've been waiting for for 3 years is almost upon us
  • 1 0
 Shame!
  • 1 0
 Good.
  • 3 5
 I miss COVID.....
  • 5 0
 You can still find some around. I see people with some.
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