Race Analysis: Fort William DH World Champs 2023

Aug 5, 2023 at 17:54
by Ed Spratt  
Andreas Kolb is very much in touch. 2nd in qualifying today.

Fort William brought some incredible racing as it held this year's World Championships after a 16-year break from its first time hosting in 2007. The racing was raw and rowdy as the refreshed track provided an interesting challenge in both the dry and wet. Apart from the newly crowned world champions who else was performing well at Fort William?

After an amazing day of racing let's get into the results and stats.



Final Results


Vali Holl is looking to back up her rainbow stripes after her success in Les Gets last year.


Elite Women


1st. Vali Höll: 4:58.242
2nd. Camille Balanche: +2.020
3rd. Marine Cabirou: +2.361
4th. Louise Ferguson: +9.721
5th. Phoebe Gale: +10.501

Elite Men


1st. Charlie Hatton: 4:26.747
2nd. Andreas Kolb: +0.599
3rd. Laurie Greenland: +1.229
4th. Loic Bruni: +1.489
5th. Troy Brosnan: +1.512

Full results, here.



Sector by Sector Results


Charlie Hatton studying the tapes. Some corners are looser than others and will catch you off guard.

Overall Split Positions

Elite Women
Sector 1
1st. Nina Hoffmann: 1:00.083
2nd. Rachel Atherton: 1:00.427
3rd. Vali Höll: 1:00.624
4th. Marine Cabirou: 1:01.095
5th. Tahnee Seagrave: 1:01.123

Sector 2
1st. Vali Höll: 3:06.890
2nd. Marine Cabirou: 3:07.310
3rd. Camille Balanche: 3:08.926
4th. Nina Hoffmann: 3:09.267
5th. Tahnee Seagrave: 3:11.643

Sector 3
1st. Vali Höll: 3:50.690
2nd. Camille Balanche: 3:51.910
3rd. Marine Cabirou: 3:51.962
4th. Tahnee Seagrave: 3:57.783
5th. Louise Ferguson: 3:58.568

Sector 4
1st. Vali Höll: 4:29.616
2nd. Camille Balanche: 4:30.245
3rd. Marine Cabirou: 4:31.048
4th. Louise Ferguson: 4:37.990
5th. Tahnee Seagrave: 4:38.540

Finish
1st. Vali Höll: 4:58.242
2nd. Camille Balanche: 5:00.262
3rd. Marine Cabirou: 5:00.603
4th. Louise Ferguson: 5:07.963
5th. Phoebe Gale: 5:08.743


Elite Men
Sector 1
1st. Matt Walker: 55.036
2nd. Andreas Kolb: 55.088
3rd. Troy Brosnan: 55.126
4th. Laurie Greenland: 55.195
5th. Loic Bruni: 55.318

Sector 2
1st. Andreas Kolb: 2:45.030
2nd. Charlie Hatton: 2:45.044
3rd. Thibaut Daprela: 2:45.134
4th. Loic Bruni: 2:46.361
5th. Loris Vergier: 2:46.548

Sector 3
1st. Charlie Hatton: 3:24.055
2nd. Laurie Greenland: 3:24.937
3rd. Andreas Kolb: 3:25.424
4th. Loic Bruni: 3:26.169
5th. Loris Vergier: 3:26.340

Sector 4
1st. Charlie Hatton: 3:58.981
2nd. Andreas Kolb: 4:00.013
3rd. Laurie Greenland: 4:00.202
4th. Troy Brosnan: 4:01.039
5th. Loic Bruni: 4:01.341

Finish
1st. Charlie Hatton: 4:26.747
2nd. Andreas Kolb: 4:27.346
3rd. Laurie Greenland: 4:27.976
4th. Loic Bruni: 4:28.236
5th. Troy Brosnan: 4:28.259


Split Rankings


Elite Women

Sector 1
1st. Nina Hoffmann: 1:00.083
2nd. Rachel Atherton: 1:00.427
3rd. Vali Höll: 1:00.624
4th. Marine Cabirou: 1:01.095
5th. Tahnee Seagrave: 1:01.123

Sector 2
1st. Marine Cabirou: 2:06.215
2nd. Vali Höll: 2:06.266
3rd. Camille Balanche: 2:07.125
4th. Nina Hoffmann: 2:09.184
5th. Phoebe Gale: 2:10.488

Sector 3
1st. Camille Balanche: 42.984
2nd. Vali Höll: 43.8
3rd. Gloria Scarsi: 43.948
4th. Marine Cabirou: 44.652
5th. Louise Ferguson: 45.022

Sector 4
1st. Camille Balanche: 38.335
2nd. Vali Höll: 38.926
3rd. Marine Cabirou: 39.086
4th. Louise Ferguson: 39.422
5th. Rachel Atherton: 39.644

Final Split to Finish
1st. Vali Höll: 28.626
2nd. Jenna Hastings: 29.005
3rd. Mille Johnset: 29.122
4th. Gloria Scarsi: 29.310
5th. Marine Cabirou: 29.555


Elite Men

Sector 1
1st. Matt Walker: 55.036
2nd. Andreas Kolb: 55.088
3rd. Troy Brosnan: 55.126
4th. Laurie Greenland: 55.195
5th. Loic Bruni: 55.318

Sector 2
1st. Charlie Hatton: 1:49.422
2nd. Thibaut Daprela: 1:49.746
3rd. Andreas Kolb: 1:49.942
4th. Danny Hart: 1:51.035
5th. Loic Bruni: 1:51.043

Sector 3
1st. Laurie Greenland: 38.003
2nd. Benoit Coulanges: 38.546
3rd. Forrest Riesco: 38.664
4th. Charlie Hatton: 39.011
5th. Angel Suarez: 39.175

Sector 4
1st. Greg Williamson: 34.156
2nd. Andreas Kolb: 34.589
3rd. Troy Brosnan: 34.698
4th. Antoine Vidal: 34.789
5th. Charlie Hatton: 34.926

Final Split to Finish
1st. Angel Suarez: 26.404
2nd. Brook Macdonald: 26.442
3rd. Kye A'Hern: 26.720
4th. Greg Williamson: 26.809
5th. Loris Revelli: 26.840




Sector Breakdown


Sector 1


The first short split created two very different situations in the Elite racing categories. While the men's race remained tight at the front with Matt Walker just edging ahead of Andreas Kolb, the women's action saw Nina Hoffmann take a lead of 0.4 seconds against Rachel Atherton. Vali Höll would take 3rd here, nearly 0.6 back. Charlie Hatton would also lose 0.6 seconds in the first sector.



Sector 2


The second split accounts for nearly half the race time and both race winners made the most of this as Charlie Hatton would lead Thibaut Daprela by 0.3 seconds. Andreas Kolb would be the only other rider within 1.6 seconds of the new World Champ. Vali Höll fell just over 0.1 seconds back from Marine Cabirou here but the Austrian would gain almost a second against second-placed Camille Balanche. No other Elite Women came within 1.9 seconds of Marine Cabirou here.



Sector 3


Camille Balanche would begin to pick up momentum through split three as she took back time against Vali Höll. With Vali Höll still second in this sector, Camille would only pick up just under a second of valuable time against her closest rival. The results here did help distance the Swiss rider from Marine Cabirou as she was around 1.7 back. While it was Laurie Greenland who won this sector it could have been crucial for Charlie Hatton in securing the rainbow jersey. A fourth place in the split may not have been a big help for Charlie but Andreas Kolb's 25th place may just have given the British rider the lead as there was a 1.3-second difference between them.



Sector 4


Another stage victory for Camille Balanche as she would pull more time back on Vali Höll as she found just short of 0.6 seconds on the eventual race winner. Marine Cabirou would take another top split result and the only other woman within a second of Camille. Greg Williamson had a great ride through this sector as he ended up the winner finding just over 0.4 seconds against Andreas Kolb who looked to be back up to speed after a slower third split. Charlie Hatton remained a constant threat taking another top-five sector result.



Sector 5


Vali Höll was clearly feeling at home on the jumps at the bottom of the course as she managed to best Camille Balanche here by a massive 1.391 seconds. Jenna Hastings came closest to the 2023 World Champ but would still be 0.379 seconds off the pace. For the Elite Men, it was another new sector winner as no one rider was able to be the fastest in more than one split. Angel Suarez would be the guy to top the times here with a tiny gap of 0.038 back to Brook Macdonald. Charlie Hatton would rank 32nd here and lose 0.433 seconds to Andreas Kolb.



Story of the Session


Elite Women



Elite Men



The Perfect Run


Elite Women
The Perfect Run: 4:56.243 (1.999 seconds faster than the race winner)

//Nina Hoffmann: 1:00.083 // Marine Cabirou: 2:06.215 // Camille Balanche: 42.984 // Camille Balanche: 38.335 // Vali Höll: 28.626 //




Elite Men
The Perfect Run: 4:23.021 (3.726 seconds faster than the race winner)

//Matt Walker: 55.036 // Charlie Hatton: 1:49.422 // Laurie Greenland: 38.003 // Greg Williamson: 34.156 // Angel Suarez: 26.404 //




Stats Breakdown


photo

photo



The top 15 race margins were plotted before including results at positions 20, 25 and 30.

The top 15 race margins were plotted before including results at positions 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70.










Author Info:
edspratt avatar

Member since Mar 16, 2017
2,851 articles

58 Comments
  • 38 0
 Just because you can plot a regression line doesn't mean you should.
  • 12 0
 You can also plot it to show how poor the regression is. In this case it would be cool to 1: leave out the riders that hit the deck 2: compare with a race that didn't have weather conditions change mid-race
  • 2 0
 Mar's Law: "Everything is linear if plotted on a log-log scale with a fat magic marker.
  • 28 0
 I'm fast, way faster than you
  • 8 0
 way faster than you, or you, or you too I'm fast, way faster than you my bike is clean my kit is brand new I'm fast
  • 1 1
 fast as fuk boiiii
  • 7 1
 I’ve always wondered on TV when they show the position at the splits , is that in relation to the current leaders time at that split or the fastest time for that split ? I’ve always assumed it was in relation to the current leader.
  • 7 0
 It is in relation to the current leader yes
  • 1 0
 Depends. The split times you see flash on the screen in red or green are in relation to the current race leader. In past Red Bull DH coverage, they were also in the habit of displaying a table ranking the fastest riders for a given segment to supplement updates on riders' cumulative times.
  • 7 0
 This is the best part of race analysis! thank you.
  • 4 0
 This entire page gives me the same anxiety I felt right before all my highschool exams. Came here for the bikes, left here with the feeling my life could have been very different if I was good at maths...
  • 5 0
 An analysis of the PB comments from the predictions article 2 days ago would make for excellent fun!
  • 5 0
 Winning interview analysis : Charlie didn’t swear so top marks for not offending any BBC viewers !
  • 2 0
 "We're sorry for any bad words you may have heard " - lol
  • 4 4
 Watching the BBC offends me. Especially BBC "News".
  • 4 0
 Kolb definitely would of won if he didn't have that dab in the woods. Also, Laurie crushed some sections. Wonder where he lost the time.
  • 1 0
 My thoughts exactly
  • 2 2
 If if if. Daprela and Walker could have won if they hadn't crashed too. It's all about pushing to your limit but not going past that limit.
  • 1 0
 @ak-77: yep, crash does dash the chances of winning.
  • 1 0
 @ak-77: recognising the luck element too. ie if you hit 30 sections at a speed such that in each section you have a 1% chance of crashing, you need some luck to get to the bottom without crashing.
  • 1 0
 @lochussie: Definitely. When I said 'not going past that limit' I meant through a combination of skill and luck.
  • 1 0
 Watch Cathro's analysis of "Corner that changed everything." That corner ate Laurie's hopes of victory.
  • 5 0
 What's the R² for the last two trendlines?
  • 7 5
 Its the coefficient of determination, or a how well the regression line approximates the actual data.
  • 3 0
 High on the left, low on the right
  • 5 2
 Buy low sell high
  • 4 0
 @mariomtblt: The question (which was mostly a joke) was "what's the R²?", not "what is R²?".
  • 4 0
 @browner: we have got a Harvard economics major here
  • 3 1
 LOL. Nerds Assemble ! (but good question... I was wondering the same).
  • 1 0
 : I've been doing it wrong
  • 2 0
 @boozed: ohh haha woops!
  • 5 0
 Is there going to be a finals replay put up anywhere?
  • 2 0
 yeah i was wondering the same as i thought the race was today..duh! Surprised at the lack of coverage now tbh.
  • 3 0
 I didn't understand why Camille Balanche didn't pedal in the motorway and still do not understand it. She basically lost the race there by just coasting to the finish.
  • 1 0
 Gutted for Thibaut... He was up there and the end of split 2 and the only one on par with the 2 Atherton boys ! Taking a step back, he really had a chance to come on top as the bottom part of the track was not perfect for Hatton (some riders took back time in the last 2 splits)... But as the saying goes, if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle Smile
Well done to Charlie, his riding was mind blowing !! You brit guys definitely know how to dance in the mud *Hats off*
  • 4 1
 Lap time improvement is interesting. Almost all women picked up speed, but not so for men. Perfect time is also cool.
  • 12 0
 But didn't the men have vastly different conditions between qualifying and the race, the heavy rain didn't affect the women's race.
  • 1 0
 My first though, was that they were balls to the walls in quali already, but it's probably just the fact that finals were way wetter.
  • 4 0
 Next Up: GCN+ (& no Warner) comments analysis
  • 5 2
 Judging from the results thread,seemed like the most interesting part of the race. People don't even care about who wins anymore. Smh
  • 4 4
 One shortcoming of this is that it assumes the course and weather as constants. For the men's race Hatton and Kolb rode a different track, once the rain started the race was over. Throw the analysis out, it doesn't tell us anything.
  • 2 1
 Yeah for sure to all of us that watched the race it was an obvious detriment I think it really started during Angel Alvarez run and got increasingly worse. The 3 on the hot seat were looking very clean, and non muddy, especially that white kit of Greg Williamson!
  • 2 3
 Wait how was the race over when the rain started?
  • 3 2
 Not over but it went from good conditions to cloudy low visibility to torrential downpour , you’re not going to tell me that that doesn’t mess with racers speeds.. not to say that some still did quite well, yay!!
  • 5 0
 Hatton and Kolb were racing in the rain, though.
  • 2 1
 @bikesandbeers: I checked the vod. Rain started at about racer 18, Hatton was starting at 65, certainly rode under bad conditions and had a hell of a run with a time on par with BK's quali run. Anyway, last rider - Loris - started 50 minute of pouring rain and 13 riders later - he did't ride the 'same' track as Charlie did.
  • 1 1
 @jayacheess: Yep they did well in crap conditions, the discussion was really about the ones who came down in the dry benefited and how the above graphs might include rain as a factor or at least some sort indication on graphs ( maybe an asterisk? Haha )
  • 2 1
 @mfoga: An overstatement I'll admit, but Hatton did have more favorable conditions. The point I'm making is the track changed drastically throughout the race, a direct comparison of split time is not a good analysis. (For the men's, it works for the women's)
  • 1 0
 reminds me of Houseman winning Grouse Mtn DH WC many moons ago when it rained halfway through, except Houseman had a different ending a few weeks after his win......
  • 1 0
 Nice analysis. Wish I could find video highlights or even a replay instead …..
  • 2 1
 Just pointing out that LouISe Ferguson is often mistyped as LouSIe Ferguson.
  • 2 0
 Is there a map showing where each split was?
  • 1 1
 Last 2 graphs show why it is daft not to use seeding results as get riders likely to podium coming down early
  • 5 0
 That's not what the graphs show.
  • 3 4
 The coverage for this race completly sucks stream cut ouyt inthe middle of the womens race and never came back and now there isnt even any replay UCI sucks ass







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