Race Analysis from the Val Di Sole XC World Cup 2023

 He has been open about doing that in the past, but I don't think he would have dropped back to a second row start if he could have stayed in the top 8 this time. More likely he blew up a little bit.

 @nattyd: He was 1 second away from finishing in the top 8 in the XCC to give him a first-row start for the XCO, and actually only 7 seconds away from the XCC win. To characterize that as blowing up, even a little bit, seems like a stretch. As you and @danielfloyd said, I think it's well-known that all Nino usually tries to do is get a top 8 in XCC without putting in any serious digs on the pedals so that he can preserve some freshness for the XCO. In this case, he cut it too close, got swarmed a bit in the finale, and that 1 second meant a swing of 4 positions. He gambled with conserving energy and came up short. No matter though, since he ultimately got what he wanted anyhow which was the XCO win.

 @Ginsu2000: "7 seconds away from an XCC win" is frankly a completely meaningless statement. XCC by nature stays together at the elite level (nearly always in the men's world cups), so time gaps are not particularly useful. He's racing for places, not time, and 10th isn't where he wants to be.

Nino is a master of racecraft and I've watched every World Cup XCC he's ever raced. When things go well, he usually surfs near the front, and then tries to stick the winning move (usually the last lap or two) before settling back when the sprinters snap the elastic. Knowing Nino, I think he would love to contend for the wins, but he just doesn't have the short power at this point in his career. When XCC was introduced, he would downplay his lack of wins in interviews, but you could tell it bothered him, and eventually he admitted that he generally didn't have the rider profile to contend. He certainly was thrilled to take the victory at Snowshoe back in 2019, and I think that took a lot of the pressure off of him.

Anyway, in this particular race, the telling part was that he *didn't* get swarmed at the end. He was riding at the front mid-lap, and when the race went off, he dropped like a rock, on a climb. That is very un-Nino, and makes me think he just went into the red and couldn't stick the move. It's impressive that he held on as well as he did, but no way falling that far was intentional, especially that far from the line.

 It is difficult to call that a trend line. The data is pretty scattered.

 @aelazenby: Agreed, I’m willing to bet there isn’t a strong correlation/coefficient of determination, but still the number one and number two men are in their mid-late thirties. That’s quite impressive to me and gives me hope!

 Yes, I might be a nerd to like these stats. Tnx to nerds, we can enjoy the results in different ways.
Maybe you should try (o:

 And proud of it!

 I think Pauline is doing a good job. It is unfortunate she crashed in this last race. I think at the moment Puck is really strong physically but Pauline has experience and skill that comes with the years. Puck has a good tactic to ride away from the group so that she can pick her ideal line. In the first race I noticed that when it does get tight on the climbs, Puck may still be stronger but Pauline is able to use her strength more efficiently and pick a good "next best line" when the ideal line is already taken. So the best tactic I can think of for them to have a good chance of winning (aside from Puck getting in trouble through crashes or mechanicals) is to try and get in front of her from the start. Other than that of course, she may have taken three first spots but she has also placed fifth in the second race. It is a bit early to consider her unbeatable like Gwin or Rachel Atherton at some stage in their career. She is having an amazing first season but there really are some very good other competitors who could also snatch a win.

I'm not necessarily pro or against a particular racer. Part of me would think it would be pretty amazing to see Puck dominate even more in her first season than she is doing already but I'm also a little worried how much fun there would be left after that when you have a target on your back, winning is the default and it is like you can only lose.

 @vinay: Getting in front of Puck from the start is not going to happen unless she actually crashes at the start. Her race plan is a carbon copy of what she does at Cyclo Cross - goes like hell from the start and if anyone can keep up with her then they duel it out with her during the race (Fem Van Empel in the case of CX) Basically she goes till she blows and at the moment this only happened at Lenzerheide where some of the other riders were able to race at a very high level and even then she still came 5th. She rarely cracks big time. Overall Puck is on another level and has more explosivity and stamina along with in-race recovery compared to the other women which is why she will dominate off-road cycling disciplines for some time to come. PFP may get close but ultimately she will not win anything this year - Lecomte might and maybe Mona if she can get a good start.

 @steelarm: I heard a podcast, and they discussed Pidcock's statement that MTB teams don't train enough - and Puck's winter of racing & training is an advantage....as it gives her a bigger base fitness.

 @Starch-Anton: sounds about right - which podcast?

 @Starch-Anton: I think it may be different for different people. A racing season is tough and could lead to injury that takes time to heal. A properly coached athlete can be trained to be at peak performance right at the start of the racing season. You don't need to be racing to get there even though obviously some competition leading up to racing season could be a motivation. But in turn, it could also be that they burn out too early in the XC season. There are quite a few good CX racers I've seen compete in the first few XC racers and then back off. I see Fem van Empel didn't compete in Val di Sole (though I don't know the reason). Annemarie Worst also took a junior CX title once (and podiumed several times) to then only compete in the first few XC races. Again, I'm not saying Puck won't be able to keep up but I am saying that racing year 'round like Mathieu van der Poel is doing isn't for everyone. There is a lot of hard work preceding a racing season, it is tough.

 @vinay: Fem Van Empel is racing on the road at the Giro Donne and doing quite nicely so obviously missed VDS. Puck is an animal/beast of rider/racer (not my words but those of her friends/riders who comment on her social media platforms) so definitely in the MVDP category of rider so expect no let up in her beasting of her opponents for the rest of the MTB season.

 @steelarm: Good to hear Fem van Empel is doing nicely. I feel that because Puck is doing so well, Fem is not getting the appreciation she deserves for how well she has performed so well in her elite debut. Puck is obviously being phenomenal, Fem is still doing really, really well. Don't get me wrong about Puck, what she's showing here is super impressive and it is the result of years and years of hard work and dedication. I just hope she can find a way to turn this into a long and happy career. Both in terms of motivation as well as health. The final thing, and I admit it borders "blaming the victim" so I should stop right there, is that too often I've seen athletes storm the ranks and you'd get the impression that they can win on any day until suddenly they don't. And then at least in this comment section (I don't visit social media) people suddenly write them off. Everyone loves the underdog so once you've performed well for a while, people start rooting for the next big thing. Sam Hill and Aaron Gwin (in DH racing) come to mind. I can imagine this could be super tough on any young rider so I just hope people will behave when she goes through a while a few years from now when she doesn't win. It may not happen as I indeed luckily haven't seen this happen to for instance Kate Courtney, so yeah, let's hope people keep supporting and celebrating what these great riders are putting on display, regardless of whether someone else does a slight bit better on race day.

 @vinay: Fem has done well in her first elite MTB races she has entered (starts well) but does not have the technical skills of Puck so will not attain a top 10 World Cup result unless she improves that aspect of her riding. So many factors influence long-term performance including Team support, mindset, and other talent coming onto the scene as we have seen in nearly all aspects of cycling it is the emerging young riders taking things to another level in skills confidence, and training.

 @steelarm: Oh yeah, I don't question that Puck is the better overall rider. Fem may be able to come close physically (in terms of endurance) but I think they've both been clear that Puck likes to jump where Fem prefers to stay on the ground. Puck is technically better and also has the mindset to improve on her technical skills. As I mentioned in my first post here, some more experienced riders may outperform her on some technical stuff but as young and new as she is, she has a lot of potential to catch up and become an even more rounded mountainbike racer. Unless something bad happens, next year she'll be even more amazing than she already is this year.

 @vinay: I noticed that, Puck definitely seems comfortable on technical parts. I wouldn't say she attacked the technical stuff, but she didn't have to once she got out in front.