5 Reasons Bike Prices Will Probably Keep Rising in 2022

Oct 15, 2021 at 2:26
by James Smurthwaite  
We went to Taiwan and started a bike company

Planning to buy a new bike next year? Well, bad news, the way current trends are going, you might have to save a bit longer. The world is in a pretty extraordinary state at the moment and that probably means the cash you've been saving won't go as far as it should. Read on to find out how everything from a coup in Guinea to congestion in ports is going to affect the price of bikes.





1. Labour Costs in Taiwan are Continuing to Increase

Wrecked in Taiwan

Labour costs for bike construction are set to rise as Taiwan has announced a minimum wage increase of 5.21%. The minimum wage in Taiwan has increased annually for the past six years but this is an especially large hike, the biggest in the past 15 years. The minimum wage will jump from NT$24,000 a month to NT$25,250 ($899.42USD), while hourly pay is set to grow from NT$160 up to NT$168 ($5.98USD), with the increases set to take effect starting Jan. 1, 2022. Around 2.1 million households are expected to benefit from the policy, taiwannews.com reports.

It's worth noting that most, if not all, workers in a bike factory probably won't be on minimum wage, but as the wage floor rises there will be pressure to maintain wage competitiveness. We're definitely glad to hear that the workers that build our bikes are being paid more fairly but it does mean that cost is almost certainly going to be passed along to the end customer of bikes. Of course, labour is a small part of the total cost of a bike but that price has to be reflected somewhere.




2. Raw material costs are increasing


So the labour to build the bikes is costing more but so is the price of the materials to make them too, specifically aluminium. The above chart shows the cost of aluminium over the past 12 months rising up to a 13 year high - you have to go back to the 2008 financial crash to find the last time it cost as much.

So why is it so high? Well, the price is being hammered on both ends. On the supply side, the unrest in Guinea, one of the world's largest producers of bauxite, as well as disruption to refineries in Jamaica and Brazil have made it harder to source the metal. On top of this, China, currently responsible for 57% of the global production of the metal, is slowing down its production growth following stricter environmental policies. There is also increasing demand as aluminium is used in electric vehicles and renewable energy, two rapidly growing sectors at the moment, which further elevates the price.

It's not just aluminium prices that are affected. Cardboard prices hit a record high in 2021 after skyrocketing 1000 per cent in the pandemic in what has been called the 'Amazon Effect' and there are similar stories for steel, magnesium and more. Bike brands face consumer and retailer pressure to keep prices stable, but they will only swallow so many cost increases. If the raw materials price spikes continue, we expect that they will adjust the bottom line of their bikes too.



3. Shipping Rates are Still High


We've spoken fairly extensively about how rising shipping costs are affecting the industry at the moment. Everything from the grounding of the EverGiven to a shortage of containers have led to record prices for ocean freight and brands have been open about how that is affecting the price of their bikes. We've even heard that brands have had to start hiring warehouses in the Far East to hold their stock until a shipping slot is available.

Thankfully, it does seem like the cost of bulk shipping is starting to come down. Bloomberg reports that on the Shanghai-to-Los Angeles trade route, the rate for a 40-foot container fell by almost $1,000 last week to $11,173, an 8.2% drop from the prior week and the steepest weekly fall since March 2020. However, the price is still magnitudes higher than it has been previously as the above graph from the Financial Times shows.

However, we're probably not out of the woods yet and it's worth saying that there's still a lot of uncertainty around these numbers. It could be that prices only slumped temporarily due to a fall in productivity over China's Golden Week holiday and there are also fears that Black Friday / Holiday demand toward the end of the year could spark another increase in costs.




4. Lead Times are Still Huge

We went to Taiwan and started a bike company

One of the big talking points in the bike industry this year has been lead times and you probably won't be surprised to learn that they are still gargantuan. Noel Buckley, Knolly CEO and Head Engineer, said in a recent statement, "current lead times in the bike industry are over 600 days for most mainstream components. Raw materials purchasing for many of our OEM suppliers and specialty manufacturers is over 350-400 days which further complicates the situation. It is common in today’s climate that purchase orders have to be placed up to 24 months in advance with all vendors; Knolly's purchasing team has us well-positioned for 2022 and 2023. We've begun placing 2024 orders, which frankly seems insane, but that’s the game that we're all playing now."

If a brand is waiting almost two years to receive a product, that means it has a lot of cash tied up in inventory - cash that could be used to get more sales or to price its products more competitively. Some brands are also reportedly double and triple sourcing to secure as much inventory as possible or to insure against a vendor who can't actually ship on time. If a brand ties ots money up buying stock for a long time in the future, it has to find money from elsewhere to continue funding R&D, marketing and more. One way to do that is to rack up prices on the stock it currently has.




5. There's a Lot of Pent Up Demand

Local Flavours Brevard NC

This one is pretty self-explanatory. A lot of people haven't been able to get what they want this year. If people are still buying, prices will keep going up.


393 Comments

  • 522 27
 Outside+ will still only be 99.99 in 2022!

Be safe be well,
Incognito Robin
  • 17 1
 Great news to start the week!
  • 57 1
 Perfect! I'll just hop into my Model S Plaid and subscribe from there.
  • 106 10
 @danielfloyd: I got my name on the Cybertruck waitlist! Imagine how good that thing will look with the Kashima Kuat rack, Colorado Native sticker and my eGravelbike!

Be safe be well,
Incognito Robin
  • 13 1
 Thought i was being sold something from a large media corporation for a second but then i checked the username. What a relief
  • 6 2
 Man, i just googled about XTR Di2 and landed on this side --> www.betamtb.com/gear/the-hidden-detail-in-shimanos-new-road-groups-that-prove-wireless-xtr-is-coming

Get access to everything we publish when you sign up for Outside+.


I wanted to ask, if i get member to outside+ and i share my account with every body else. what will happen?
  • 6 3
 @Hamburgi: With my current CTO...yea you probably can. But as already noted, given he banned me I'm looking to fill the role with someone who can really help optimize revenue going forward and eliminate sharing!

Be safe be well,
Incognito Robin
  • 3 0
 @notoutsideceo What if I only want PinkBike+ for $49.00? Not interested in the other fluff unless it gives me exclusive access behind the Paywall!
  • 428 17
 Any attempt to blame a minimum wage increase for the workers at the bottom should be paired with facts about how much the CEOs are paying themselves.
  • 91 7
 Can I please drop your microphone?
  • 43 4
 don't forget the money spent on marketing (pro riders, websites, events, Advertisements with Christopher Walken, etc)
  • 26 0
 @GrUnReVel: if you drop your phone, it will be almost the same thing
  • 5 1
 @SacAssassin: just bigger.
  • 2 0
 @StiT25: "It's crazy!"
  • 22 13
 As hard ass conservative that I am I can not disagree with your statement.
  • 62 2
 @konrad1972: having a political view doesn't mean you have to agree with EVERYTHING from that side haha.
  • 32 2
 People will wear their shit pay and being overworked like a badge of honor as long as someone else is making less.
  • 15 62
flag mobil1syn (Oct 25, 2021 at 15:38) (Below Threshold)
 @furiousstyles do you have subordinates, are you willing to take a pay cut for them to get paid more?
  • 59 13
 @mobil1syn: Oh jeez. Sweet purity test, bro!

"You think people should use less oil? ARE YOU WILLING TO LIVE IN A CAVE AND NEVER USE ANYTHING PLASTIC, EVER AGAIN IN YOUR ENTIRE LIFE?"

"You're concerned about CEO's receiving multi-million dollar bonuses, even when their companies aren't doing very well? GUESS YOU WANT TO EARN MINIMUM WAGE FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE THEN!"

Yep. All or nothing. All of nothing.
  • 2 0
 truth
  • 7 26
flag Ra1der (Oct 25, 2021 at 18:13) (Below Threshold)
 @dirktanzarian: A bit hyperbolic, don't you think? Not even close to the spirit of what he was saying.
  • 37 1
 @mobil1syn: I've turned down raises and yearly bonuses many times to secure better compensation for my employees. You don't have to be a greedy selfish shit to be a good businessman or manager. Quite the opposite. Employees who feel valued take ownership and contribute so much more. Win win win
  • 24 11
 @mobil1syn: how much more value does a CEO bring in comparison to the average employee? Probably not a million times more. Probably not a thousand times more. Probably not even 10 times more. CEOs are not gods amongst people. It take a village. Without the other people a CEO is useless to anyone but the shareholders. The only responsibilities that a CEO has is a fiduciary one the the shareholders. Maybe that’s an issue when no worker representation exists on most boards.
  • 4 0
 @mobil1syn: I don’t but I did until recently. Then I decided, screw this, the pittance extra I’m earning is not worth the extra hours and stress and someone else can have this thankless job. I went back to work on the tools instead of at a keyboard.
  • 3 11
flag mobil1syn (Oct 27, 2021 at 7:59) (Below Threshold)
 @dirktanzarian: touched a nerve eh?
simply put is if you are willing to limit someone elses earning potential, by default you are accepting limitations on your earning potential. i want no limits on my earning potential because i want to dictate the lifestyle i have. are we only limiting the earnings of CEOs or should we include doctors? dentists? are you angry there are anesthesiologist out there making a million dollars a year? professional athletes?

i like the convivences and enjoyment natural resources bring me. my income (in the western world, because there is that whole cast thing in the rest of the world) is solely based on my ability to add value. i dont think im making enough, i go find another job. if i keep pointing the finger at my employers for my low wages, either i slave away and die poor OR realize i should spend some of my free time developing a skillset to increase my wages.

@kokofosho: without question, high level execs have a developed a decision making skillset that a limited number of people have. if theyd didnt, theyd be paid less because theyre would be a large pool of people to select for the job.


@Tim2: common topic of discussion on weekly rides. walk away from it all and spin wrenches at a bike shop.
  • 12 0
 @mobil1syn: You come across as unbelievably entitled and have a very poor understanding of most of the world based on your comment history. The C suite does nothing that justifies their salaries in any company and I guarantee you don't add as much value to the workplace as you think you do. There should absolutely be a limit to how much money someone can earn at the expense of their workforce and you should also be able to enjoy the benefits of hard work at the same time. No one argues that you shouldn't be rewarded. The core problem you're missing is that people who do add value are held hostage in a workplace for various reasons. Healthcare, childcare costs, work schedules, transportation, and many other reasons. Example: My local Taco Bell cannot open their lobby or be open regularly because they don't have the employees to work there. There's a lot of people pissed off that they have to wait in the drive through or leave because they can't sit in the lobby. If the CEO disappeared for a month? No one would give a shit and the company wouldn't know the difference

Also here's an interesting read for you because "iT's ScIeNcE" and you need an education on gender roles in nature
allthatsinteresting.com/sequential-hermaphrodotism-sex-changing-animals
  • 1 5
flag konrad1972 (Oct 27, 2021 at 10:14) (Below Threshold)
 @Rokcore: Yeah. Those gender fluids are animals not humans.
  • 6 0
 @konrad1972: This may blow your mind but humans are animals. We're not some separate entity created in isolation from the rest of the animal kingdom
  • 1 8
flag konrad1972 (Oct 27, 2021 at 13:48) (Below Threshold)
 @Rokcore: Ok. Lets just say that we are a different specie of animals, and of course there are different characteristic between the species. Lets just say within many species incest is normal, However it is not normal within the humans. The evolution intended for humans to be either male or a female, with sexual attraction to each other so that we can guarantee continuation of our specie. Anything else is just a defect.
  • 6 0
 @konrad1972:
1. We are a different species
2. You're claiming an absolute set of traits define a human and everything else is subhuman. I say curly hair is a defect. You have curly hair so let's kill you off because it's a defect. See how stupid that sounds?
3. "defects" are literally how species evolve. A bright orange rabbit isn't going to last long in a snow environment but might thrive in an area full of orange plant life. Those defects become the norm when everything else gets killed off because they're easy to spot.

There's so much wrong with your comment that it's hard to unpack it all. I take it you have also never had sex purely for fun? It was always to guarantee continuation of our species? If not then it sounds like a defect based on your comment
  • 2 2
 @Rokcore: Yes there is a definitive set of traits that differentiates humans from other species, but within our human specie we can have different traits between each other just like curly hair. At no point I claim that being different makes one subhuman. Not having necessary characteristics defined as homo sapiens makes a living organism not human. I guess any competent biologist will tell you that. Curly hair is not going to impede continuation of our specie or normal functioning of an individual, as is being left handed. If we all got curly hair or became left handed humanity would continue to exist just as usual without a hickup. If we all became homosexual or infertile our specie would become extinct within a generation. Maybe you can see my definition/understanding of defect and where my logic comes from. Being different or having a different trait does not necessarily mean having a defect or being defective, and in most cases it does not. Are you going to tell me that being born blind, def without limb or with a weak heart is not a defect? There is even a medical term called "birth defect". Species do not evolve by becoming defective they evolve by acquiring an adventagous trait that makes it easier to survive in a given environment. An orange rabbit is likely not to survive in its natural habitat so consequently his/her orange gens are not going be passed to the next generation, and the orange color will not survive. That's evolution for you. Yes evolution also made us seek sexual pleasure so we would engage in the activity and reproduce. And because it is pleasant we also engage in it not to reproduce. Many of the things/actvities that we find pleasant evolved so that we would seek them and survive. The fact that we seek pleasure for its own sake is just a side effect of evolution and not a defect. Lastly where the heck did I write or advocate that we should kill defective people?? You are making a false and rather offensive assumption out of your own imagination. I sense (I might be wrong) you are getting all offended. Yes "defective" may sound harsh to some people but it is a hard truth. I understand that we are living in times of hyper sensitivity and accordingly to some we would be better off if we banned all the negative adjectives when describing people. I am sorry I do not subscribe to that philosophy. I am myself physically defective and there are some basic human functions that I can not perform. No, I do not have different abilities I just lack certain abilities. I hope you can unpack and not find it all wrong. BTW I also fund it challenging to unpack your response which from my perspective was all wrong.
  • 1 1
 @Rokcore: All humans are animals but not all animals are humans. Human aka, homo sapiens.
  • 2 0
 @konrad1972:

"The evolution intended for humans to be either male or a female, with sexual attraction to each other so that we can guarantee continuation of our specie. Anything else is just a defect."

You're implying that it's wrong to be different in this sentence here. Evolution does not have an intention and is a series of randomized mutations that determine how well a species survives or does not survive in their environment. Imagine that same scenario where a small section of a rabbit population is orange in a snow environment. For whatever environmental reasons the snow disappears in a matter of days by a fire or any other reason. The "correct" way for a species to thrive is now the biggest threat to it's survival.

Let's take it a step further. Over a month, a virus, bacteria, or fast acting cancer specifically targets humans with XX chromosomes causing rapid death and irreversible damage to the XX chromosome population with no cure. Well that's bad right? A very rare mutation, Persistent Müllerian duct syndrome, causes humans with XY chromosomes to develop a uterus/fallopian tubes. Let's say a quick procedure to make these organs completely functional is the most cost effective way to repopulate the earth vs trying to repopulate a now, at risk, population of XX humans. All of a sudden, gay men become the predominate way for our population to reproduce. Sure this is statistically unlikely but not completely science fiction.

The point I'm getting at is every human in any aspect of life deserves a basic quality of life regardless of their born deformities, perceived deformities, or accidental deformities. Relating back to the article, it goes the same that every human deserves basic economic qualities of life; no one should starve, no one should lack shelter, and no one should be denied health care because of their economic/job situation. I don't know how your defects present themselves and it's not important either. Why discriminate against others on things out of their control or treat them any different. Who cares if it's a "choice" or if it's genetic. Just let other people live their best lives. There's always going to be situations where something is just physically impossible for someone with a defect to do (someone without a left hand can't snap their left fingers). There's also situations where people with perceived defects (economic, physical, or otherwise) are kept from living a basic quality of living because people are greedy. We're in a society where economically disadvantaged people are lumped into a lazy, illegal immigrants, welfare queen, or whatever other marginalized group. There's so many scenarios we can't possibly imagine that are unfair to these people and corporations take advantage of it giving pennies in return. Someone who can't afford healthcare, can't afford childcare, can't afford missing a paycheck, and doesn't have time to better their education shouldn't be at the mercy of their employer for things out of their control. The C suites of the world definitely shouldn't feel entitled to profit off of these people either
  • 1 0
 Stock-related compensation is a key reason why CEOs earn so much, it is not their base salary. You could probably correlate CEO compensation, if company performance is doing well than most likely the stock prices are doing well.
  • 1 0
 @dc40: there’s evidence to suggest an inverse correlation between CEO equity and stock performance
  • 184 7
 I don’t get it, isn’t the whole point of living in a first world nation is that we can get cheap shit made by peasants in developing nations for a bowl of rice per day??? Are we going to need to resort to 19th century colonialism to keep getting practically free labor costs??????


(Unfortunately I have to state that I’m obviously being sarcastic, thank you government education)
  • 62 3
 Are you being sarcastic about being sarcastic? Can't be too sure
  • 9 8
 Agreed...now it's our choice to decide if we want to lower our standard of living to help others. But be prepared to lower your standard of living.
  • 38 1
 @canuck-rider: inflation without a raise will make that choice for you
  • 4 0
 @Dogl0rd:
"...this, but unironic", he said ironically.
  • 82 2
 We are not seeing an increase in cost of goods. We're seeing the true cost of goods emerging. The 1st world has been taking advantage of 3rd world labor and lack of environmental regulation in these countries. Buy local. Repair what you got. Work on your skills instead of lusting for new parts. And remember reduce, reuse, and recycle are put in that order for a reason.
  • 11 0
 @alpineseven: "True cost of goods emerging", this is really an excellent point, and a reality people prefer to ignore. Unfortunately "economic growth" is really just based on mass consumption, of stuff we don't need. More, more, more, more and E-more
  • 2 0
 @Dogl0rd:

so apparently... 30% of all the USD ever minted and put into circulation was done in the last 18 months... can you say hyperinflation? i can.
  • 2 0
 @rippinrob: yikkess scary, but hyperinflation would be defined by the rate of inflation itself, not the rate of printing money. Not disagreeing that it's nuts
  • 1 0
 @Dogl0rd: indeed sir. what i am suggesting here is that we are seeing real world inflation in these bike prices.
  • 1 0
 @Dogl0rd: inflatio. always follows periods of intense money printing. for obvious reasons. it is a lagging indicator
  • 1 0
 @rippinrob: I'm not optimistic either my friend
  • 146 1
 ppl be selling marlins 5s for 1500 because they put some Amazon grips and call it MARLIN 5 CUSTOM
  • 24 0
 Ya uh........ guilty as charged
  • 11 0
 UPGRADED
  • 5 0
 @Bikesbecauserunningsucks: we appreciate the honesty hahaha
  • 3 0
 2yr ago the marlin 5 cost $499.99, now it costs $699.99, i expect it to cost at least $749.99 by Q4 2022
  • 1 0
 Saw a local guy trying to sell a used Commencal Meta for $300 more than the list price for a brand new one online, it's only a 2 week wait for one right now too.
  • 2 0
 Ya but, I also added Renthal bars... UPGRADED AF
  • 133 17
 Absolutely willing to pay more for a bike if it means fair wages for all involved in the process of making it.
  • 18 39
flag nateisgrate (Oct 25, 2021 at 11:13) (Below Threshold)
 I agree but the markup is already so high!
  • 41 5
 @nateisgrate: I cannot speak for manufacturers, but at the shops I worked at the markup was tiny, just enough to cover the expense of assembling the bike. We made all of our money on accessories and repairs.
  • 13 0
 Fair wages, to whom, because I suspect that Taiwaneese wages are like 10% of the price.
  • 34 2
 But that won’t happen. This is all about increasing margins and boardroom bonuses
  • 5 1
 @chrismac70: Sadly, you're probably right.
  • 11 6
 @aelazenby: it’s not the shops, it’s the manufacturers. Bikes are overpriced everyone knows that.
  • 14 0
 Sadly, Taiwan wages matter little when they've outsourced production to (checks frame of son's 2021 model bike) Vietnam.
  • 5 6
 @nateisgrate: tHe MaRkUp iS sO hIgH. Found the dude who doesn't know what the actual mark up is compared to other retail goods.
  • 5 0
 I think the increase in labour cost for production is more than exponentially offset by the direct to consumer model many companies are going. So not really buying it. Also, look at the trend in material prices and transportation in the last couple months - at least according to the graph; that looks like the start of a pretty good correction.
  • 3 0
 Retail markup may not be high but manufacturer margins certainly are. Particularly on carbon fibre frames. I expect that the recent increased cost of labour (be it to do with wages or simply pandemic operational requirements) wouldn’t add a significant cost to anything on a bicycle, but whether a company is willing to absorb all of the recent increased costs is another issue entirely.
  • 5 2
 @NorCalNomad: haha you’re hilarious if you think the price to manufacture a mountain bike should be more than the price to manufacture a dirt bike. Components are way overpriced, and of course they can be since people like you will gobble it up.
  • 1 0
 @chrismac70: That is really not "always" true. I work in the industry and can tell you the margins on bikes are not amazing. So if you think that higher material, labor and shipping costs don't have an effect on those you would be wrong. The manufacture has the lowest margin percentage to begin with, so when you see increased costs you will increased prices to maintain that margin both from the manufacture and the dealer. We pay more the dealer pays more, so the consumer pays more. This isn't about golden parachutes and boardroom bonuses.
  • 165 116
 #letsgobrandon
  • 38 104
flag quesoquesoqueso (Oct 25, 2021 at 10:20) (Below Threshold)
 #liberalutopia
  • 33 12
 It is Brendan you big you dummy, and he is already back from injury. Do you even ride bikes?
  • 78 61
 A president has literally no control over privately owned and serviced supply chains, minimum wage in different countries, mining shortages and political unrest in other countries, etc... But, you know, keep blaming the office for things that private industry are screwing up (that goes for everyone from any party that has ever been in power).
  • 11 2
 @quesoquesoqueso: what does this even mean?
  • 29 6
 @Starsky686: trolling about US politics. Feel free to ignore
  • 46 17
 Imagine thinking one man has control over the global supply chain
  • 25 96
flag quesoquesoqueso (Oct 25, 2021 at 10:39) (Below Threshold)
 @Pmars88: he has control over energy prices. or at least his activist base does.
  • 34 7
 So terrible that workers are starting to demand living wages, both in the US and in Taiwan. Truly an awful development. /s

It's crazy, but the covid aftermath does seem to somehow be giving workers power they didn't have before to demand higher wages and better treatment. If the Taiwanese want to raise their minimum wage, more power to them.
  • 19 10
 @dthomp325: theyre making less after inflation.
  • 3 5
 Lol was waiting for this.
  • 45 19
 @quesoquesoqueso: No he does not. Presidents have no control over the price of gas, or KwH produced from natural gas, solar, wind, whatever. Holy jeez this is insane. Congress controls subsidies, leasing, and all other things. Read a book. A real book. Not a political pundit, from either end of the spectrum, "book".
  • 17 19
 @Pmars88: Imagine thinking that Biden did well to stop this or that Trump (or any president) wouldn't have been raked over coals for this fiasco
  • 14 19
flag pistol2ne (Oct 25, 2021 at 10:55) (Below Threshold)
 @jmhills: "no control". Cope harder.
  • 20 6
 @quesoquesoqueso: say you really have no idea how publicly traded commodity markets work, with out saying you have no idea.
  • 10 9
 @pistol2ne: Lol, wtf could one person do to affect a supply chain with thousands of players?

So because people would have shitty takes if a different president was in office I should ignore the reality that no one person can do anything of significance to change the global supply chain? What a terrible take.
  • 26 32
flag kawin20 (Oct 25, 2021 at 11:18) (Below Threshold)
 FJB
  • 17 8
 @pistol2ne: Yup, no control. Control could only come from nationalizing industry which Truman tried during the Korean War. SCOTUS said no to that one. When a president does something about things like this, people yell at them. When the president moves to do something like nationalize an industry or interfere in private businesses, people get pissy and yell at them. If a president is honest with you and lets you know that they have no control over things like this, people get pissy and yell at them. Your politics are unrealistic and ridiculous. Again, read a book. Look at the Constitution. There is nothing the Executive can do to influence any of this. Once again, the Legislative can get the closest through legislation but they are too busy stoking their culture wars to do their jobs, on both sides. See/ read that? Both sides.
  • 18 7
 If you've ever tried to import anything, or manufacture overseas, then yes, very very much, Presidents have an effect on the price of final goods. They don't run companies, fire incompetent executives, come up with business plans, set prices, etc, but what they do is crap like the Trump Tariffs to increase product input prices and product themselves. Getting stuff through customs is also a nightmare and has high costs. Theres all the insane, stupid trucking regulations for getting your goods from the pier to your warehouse. There are so many obstacles between the container ship and your warehouse that are 100% artificial and come from State, Federal, and Executive (Presidential) rules that dramatically increase the costs of goods. Beyond that, the "bully pulpit" is very powerful. Now whenever you order anything from China they always say, "sorry, forgive us, but our prices are high now because of Trump Tariffs " even though what you are working on isn't part of that at all- its just an excuse.

Very, very much the President can affect the price of final goods by making it increasingly harder to do business. When its harder to do business, everyone makes less from the Business Owner to the workers on the floor. Despite the governments best efforts to force everyone to work for a megacorp, the USA economy is still primarily driven by small businesses, where the business owner is not a billionaire or even a millionaire.
  • 18 5
 @jmhills: Of course The President does. Look at Project Warp Speed and the Vaccines that were produced and distributed by private companies. Yeah, it's not absolute...but he and his administration do have a large influence. Especially when alot of it's waiting off shore in California. That's what you elected him to do...he's there to work for you, the Voter.
  • 2 0
 @j1sisslow: Cant tell if this is decent satire or ignorance. Damn you interwebs and your lack of context!!
  • 1 1
 @dthomp325: it’s just pr excuses to justify higher prices and margins.
  • 9 7
 @jmhills: except he does. hogtying the economy during a time of duress has direct implications to our ability to supply goods and services, and coupling that with rampant spending all lends to supply shortages and inflation. Add into the mix major influxes of labor supply and you get an overly saturated labor market, that can't be utilized because of government regulations.
You're right to say that no administration has total control but to say they have "no control" is demonstrative of your lack of understanding of basic supply/demand economics and fiscal policy.
  • 15 3
 @hamncheez: A bully pulpit is about it. The problem here is that the American public has been sold this idea of a unitary, all powerful executive. The truth of the matter is that for decades now, Congress has shirked their obligations as the key branch that creates policy. It is easier to blame one person rather than actually admit that you are not doing your job. A president can apply public pressure but it is up to the individual, private companies to look and react. The role of the executive is to enforce the policies created by the legislative. The rise in executive orders is a result of the dysfunction of the legislative branch. Congress has the ability to cut the tape and hoops required to get things off a boat and onto a truck. A president sitting down to avert a strike or lobby for increased work hours is one thing. Anything else, like an actual policy shift, has to be done from the legislative.

@canuck-rider Of course warp speed and vaccines worked. The government through billions to cover R&D. The companies responded out of public pressure but more so, out of the shear amount of money thrown at them through guaranteed contracts. The most powerful thing government can do is throw around some of their money.
  • 14 6
 @jmhills: " Congress has shirked their obligations as the key branch that creates policy" Agree 100%

"A bully pulpit is about it" Disagree

The US department of Commerce is 100% overseen by the executive, and commerce in the USA is hardly free market. Its very much managed by the Department, and managed incredibly poorly.

If Biden's vaccine mandate for employers gets implemented, then suddenly we are going to see a lot more 1099 workers and companies reducing their W2 workers to just 99 (even now the "bully pulpit" effect of this can be seen, in SouthWest Airlines for example). Obamacare is another example where costs to employ someone were dramatically increased artificially. Whether or not those increases in costs and unemployment are worth the benefit are a different conversation, but its very hard to argue with the available evidence that regulations from the Department of Labor, Department of Commerce, and others don't increase business costs and final goods prices.
  • 3 2
 Would you mind a quick explanation?
  • 14 17
 @jmhills: Agree with part of what you're saying. But, "build back better" Biden has 2 out of three branches of your government and 50% of the third branch. Not to mention they do have executive order to grease the wheels. Instead they are...using a crisis to push a socialist leaning agenda. Canada has Trudeau with his "great reset" talk.
  • 17 17
 @jmhills: Removing vax requirements for workers would be a great way to start. NOt sure if you've flown recently but a big reason airlines are striking is because of vax mandates. YES, some of the other strikes (kellogs etc) are due to usual strikes but Biden is making it worse with his coronaphobia.
  • 9 3
 @canuck-rider: ding ding ding. Not his fault entirely as US can't control oversea productions but by god he can do stuff to make sure boats aren't sitting the harbor, people won't come into work.

It's also important to remember 4.5m left the workforce because of our reaction to the pandemic. Yes, some of that would have naturally happened due to the pandemic itself, but not all of it.
  • 8 25
flag barp (Oct 25, 2021 at 14:12) (Below Threshold)
 @BenTheSwabian: It's a new fascist dog-whistle that means "[f] Joe Biden".
  • 18 7
 @barp: LOLOLOLOLOLOL anyone saying F joe biden is a fascist.

Why not throw in every other ist, and phobe while you're at it? 2022 is gonna be a bloodbath. Keep going, you're doing great!
  • 21 8
 @barp: Oh nm, you're from Portland, no wondering why you're saying these things.
  • 7 19
flag barp (Oct 25, 2021 at 14:44) (Below Threshold)
 @pistol2ne: Found the fascist.
  • 19 6
 @barp: Blah blah blah blah, everyone i disagree with is a fascist racist etc.

Sorry it's rain season dude, I know how you people get up there.
  • 13 3
 @barp: everything is either now fascist or racist now days.
  • 22 7
 @barp: Is supporting Joe Biden fascist? Biden did author, champion, and have the 1994 crime bill named after him. That bill is the most racist piece of legislation passed in my lifetime. Biden gave the eulogy for Robert Byrd, a KKK member and who helped filibuster the 1964 civil rights act.

Fascist used to be synonymous with authoritarian or totalitarian, meaning it was a strong leader who wanted to implement tough controls over peoples lives using a police state. I would argue the Biden administration has as a goal more control over individual peoples lives than each of his predecessors going back several administrations.
  • 13 5
 @pistol2ne: To prove how facist you are he will beat you down and dox your extended family until you admit your fault.
  • 10 3
 @SacAssassin: don't forget remove your ability to voice your opinion, silencing opposition totally isn't fascist at all......
  • 5 11
flag barp (Oct 25, 2021 at 15:44) (Below Threshold)
 @SacAssassin: Who's doxxing whom? I'm not the one bringing up the cities where other commenters live.
  • 6 6
 @Caligula1620: Yes, see how effectively I silenced my opposition, by having my own comment downvoted to invisibility while others continue to argue against me?
  • 16 7
 @barp: lets not pretend that the left doesn't try to cancel any opposing view point. the examples are abundant. although I know how you feel, every time I try to share the link exposing Gavin Newsome's corruption it gets downvoted into oblivion without any rebuttal. I guess ignorance is just easier to deal with for most..


firepowermoney.com
  • 8 2
 @Caligula1620: When all else fails, fall back to claiming victimhood for an arbitrary reason like being doxxed because someone referred to the city you put in your profile. Get’em every time!
  • 10 1
 FFS can we go back to talking about bikes? I have been guilty of allowing politics to creep into some of my comments here but this is becoming painful. New poll: What is ruining PB? 1. Outside 2. Politics in comments 3. Other
  • 7 5
 @Burningbird: hey if pinkbike is going to put out political/economic themed content you can't really get pissed when the comments reflect current discussion trends.
  • 7 1
 @Caligula1620: not pissed, just saying that maybe we shouldn't allow ourselves to get sucked into these kind of arguments. Every article is only a few degrees away from politics if that is the prism you are looking through. I'm as guilty of it as anyone else here but at a certain point it becomes unhealthy
  • 13 1
 @jmhills: That's funny...because the Governor, Legislature AND local government here in California sure do have a hand in this gigantic mess...

1) They passed a law that ONLY allows 2011 and newer trucks to pick up cargo from our ports

2) They passed a law that does not allow independent truckers from picking up cargo from the port. All truckers MUST be an employee of a California corporation.

3) The local government passed an ordinance that did not allow for stacking shipping containers higher than 2 (yes, that is "2" containers on top of each other...) when storing them on the ground.

So, please expound on how "private" businesses are screwing this up....
  • 3 1
 @Burningbird: I usually echo your sentiment about politics on a MTB website. Today was not one of those days.

To the topic of the article. I’m certainly not qualified to be an economist but I see several factors pointing to pricing problems for years down the road assuming geopolitical tensions remain at current levels.
  • 3 0
 @SacAssassin: Agreed...this is the first time I've been concerned about the future of my country and whether or not our leaders have our best interests in mind.
  • 8 5
 @hamncheez: Vaccine requirements play a small hand in this and are massively overwrought. The example of SW Airlines and the massive issue it had was more logistical and vaccine related. SW does not really do hubs, unlike all of the other major airlines. It is how they keep their fares low. Because of this, they have to plan things out exactly in order to make sure that personnel and aircraft are where they need to be. They messed that up due to not anticipating weather and increased ridership.

Do regulations increase the final cost? Sure they do but the regulations are, in many cases, needed in order to make sure that the product/ service is consistently supplied. Look at what cold weather did to the entire, unregulated, Texas power grid. The problem here is that the bureaucracy is being asked to do more than they are actually authorized to do. Congress passes laws and then the executive/ bureaucracy enforces them. The amount of vigor placed behind those is up to the executive. Here though, in the world with which we live, I do not see costs increasing artificially. None of what is happening right now is artificial. Cost of living has increased. Not due to anything any president in particular has done, but because the world has changed. We are entering a time of scarcity of resources that has been brought on by this feeling that everything is unlimited. The people in the global setting who have been taken advantage of for decades are no longer willing to take it anymore as their costs have increased. The ability to get things off of a boat has nothing to do with those facts.

Being the president is the worst job in the world. Regardless of what they do, they will be blamed for things that they have no control over. Sure, they can issue executive orders but those are temporary and extra Constitutional. Executive orders do not actually fix anything. They only exacerbate the problem. It leads to the endless death spiral of 'what aboutism'. Obama issued a bunch of EO's. Republicans screamed. Trump issued a bunch of EO's. Democrats screamed. Biden is not issuing EO's...Republicans scream. The problem is not that the executive is not moving. The problem is that the legislative, the ones that create and fund the policies and regulations, have zero interest in actually solving the issue. Political points need to be scored. The fact that this discussion is actually happening is evidence of exactly that honestly.

@canuck-rider Biden currently has only one branch: the executive. He has no friends in the judiciary and barely any in the legislative. As for pushing a socialist agenda, I hate to break it to you but America has a socialist agenda inherently. We all want the government to supply things for us, on both sides. The older Republicans will scream just as loudly to keep their Medicaid as the younger Democrats scream to expand it. The issue here though is that no one wants to actually pay for it. Everyone is for deregulation and hands off, until the electricity shuts off.

@scitrainer What you are describing is federalism and under the Constitution and the 10th Amendment, anything not reserved as a power of the federal government is reserved as a state power. Unless the state is violating federal law, the federal government can do nothing about it. They have the ability to regulate interstate trade but how things are unloaded and stacked, is not a power. Intrastate commerce is under the purview of the state and local government. Not the president. Again, the president gets the blame for things that they have no ability to influence, unless they want to overstep their Constitutional powers. Once they do that, everyone will yell and scream at them for doing it...or, yell and scream at them for doing nothing.
  • 7 7
 @jmhills: When you shut down fossil fuel production throughout the country and then wonder why the gas prices are so high, you are the problem.
  • 1 1
 @Burningbird: hey at the end of the day we should all be less political, so you're right. thanks
  • 3 3
 @jmhills: there were/are multiple examples of SW clearly not being as hindered by weather as they were claiming. that was a PR stunt to downplay the fallout implications of their mandate compliance. Even the CEO of SW later came out and effectively said "Biden made me do it so don't blame me"
  • 1 0
 @Caligula1620: Thank you for saying that! I quit reading after seeing that statement. Shame i couldn't make it further through the book...
  • 2 1
 @jmhills: In my comment I said "Whether or not those increases in costs and unemployment are worth the benefit are a different conversation". There are a limited number of people who benefitted from Obamacare, but without question it dramatically increased the cost to employ someone and therefore the prices of the goods being produced.

" the regulations are, in many cases, needed in order to make sure that the product/ service is consistently supplied" is not something that can be proven with facts. Texas being hit with a 100 year storm is not a good example. Its like blaming the 1989 power outages in Canada on their regulated electrical system (it was caused by a 100 year solar flare). Its absolutely crystal clear that history has proven that central planning gives worse economic outcomes than a distributed, competitive system.

Regulations do not help increase product/service consistency, they tend to do the opposite. Customer demand creates that. For my small business, some tubing arrived cracked. If I would have accepted that compromised material, maybe 10% of my product would have failed. That would put me out of business. It is in my financial best interest to do good QC. In a competitive market, those companies who don't are weeded out, increasing the quality of product. Regulations increase costs and usually don't have a good correlation with risk prevention. All they do is put extra cost on small companies and help big companies keep out competition.

This can be seen with hair stylists- in many states a Cosmology license requires more hours of training than being an EMT. An African immigrant in Utah started an African hair braiding business in her garage. Shock to no one, there aren't a lot of Black people in Utah, so its hard for Black people to find hair stylists who are experienced with their type of hair. Some Cosmology Schools sued this woman, and the State fined her thousands of dollars a day for not being properly licensed to style hair, and made her attend a hair school WHERE AFRICAN HAIR STYLING ISN'T EVEN TAUGHT. But without this regulation the schools couldn't charge $10,000 for an 18 month program.
  • 3 3
 @jmhills: So your saying Gavin Newsom and the rest of this Democrat run state wouldn't listen to Biden if he asked/told them to repeal those regulations?...Right.

Let's try this angle then. Biden shut down construction of multiple oil pipelines and he stopped federal leases to new oil drilling. This had the effect of making the US a net oil importer vs a net exporter (and energy independent), thereby driving up the price of oil. This makes it more expensive to transport EVERYTHING and more expensive to be a trucker. More expensive to be a trucker = less truckers, ergo less freight gets moved = supply chain backup.
  • 3 2
 @jmhills: how about that xl pipeline that Biden shut down ? Wonder why gas prices are so high ?
  • 3 1
 @Burningbird: The article didn’t seem political to me??? They listed several unbiased observations and drew the not too surprising conclusion that bike prices aren’t going down anytime soon. Everybody else has to announce their pilitical biases and be a dick about it (tm).
  • 3 5
 Ah the stupidity!!! Come to a bike page and get to read idiotic comments incorrectly blaming someone who is not responsible for a GLOBAL problem. I still can't follow the logic of the people who feel this way. Are the guys you are blaming stupid and incapable of even dressing themselves? Or are they so brilliant that they can manipulate every aspect of a global economy comprised largely of privately (non-govt, not "private" in trading speak) owned companies?
  • 1 1
 @SprSonik: #triggered lol
  • 2 1
 @SprSonik: Can you point to ONE other port outside of the USA that has 100+ ships waiting to unload?...
  • 3 0
 @SprSonik: except when you hinder labor supply while demand stays constant or rising, it tends to create an imbalance. "are the guys you are blaming stupid and incapable of even dressing themselves?" I mean most of us are saying Biden is largely responsible sooooo, ya lol. and it doesn't take a genius to f*ck up the economy. now the narrative is that supply chain shortages are good thing, and they're a result of 'people having so much money' which is depressingly laughable.
you act like businesses can do what they want in the face of federal mandates after we just started to get out of a nationwide lockdown that crippled and killed thousands of small businesses.
in short, your argument doesn't track further than 2 points bro. go learn some basic labor and money economics.
  • 2 2
 @Caligula1620: what about the fact that this is a GLOBAL issue makes you think Biden (or any other person) is responsible? Do people play a part in policy and guidance, sure. But that doesn't have nearly as much impact as the overall global concerns with the pandemic and the shifts in consumer behavior tied to it.
  • 2 0
 @scitrainer: from Bloomberg Financial..."Globally, RBC Capital Markets reckons 77% of ports are experiencing abnormally long times to turnaround traffic." So yeah, there are plenty of places with ships idling. Not knowing the volume or daily status of each port, I can't speak to the percentage of backlog with any accuracy (like your 100 ship comment that lacks zero context). But 2 weeks ago, Hong Kong-Shenzhen had over 100 ships backed up at their port, with 20-60 waiting most weeks.
  • 2 1
 @SprSonik: saying something is a global issue doesn't mean there aren't smart and dumb ways of handling the implications domestically. I'm not saying he has the ability to make GLOBAL changes, i'm saying he is doing just about everything incorrectly DOMESTICALLY..
  • 2 3
 @Caligula1620: the trade war started by some other guy is what actually started causing us economic problems. The deficit spending in spite of a strong economy under some other guy is what started causing us economic problems. The horrible way America (some other guy) addressed the covid scenario when it was small enough to be squashed (see Japan) is what started our economic problems. There are some things the current guy can do better, but his policies that were only stated in JAN are not why we are in a crisis that was already in play before he even got sworn in.
  • 2 1
 @Caligula1620: What can you teach me about Economics or labor that working for big companies that heavily deal in supply chain or having an Econ degree can't teach me? You are confusing your personal opinions with the big picture. If this was all one guy's fault, it would not be global. There is plenty of research out there that talks about how little power POTUS actually has over US economic performance. And I haven't heard anyone saying they are a good thing, only that people have been spending a bunch. Don't confuse the two. But when you run lean supply and inventory, sudden spikes in an industry can be severely impacting. When those spikes and shortages hit all industries, well, that is where the economy is today. We could go really deep on this to show where you are reducing a massively complex global economic and health crisis into some basic politically fueled talking points, but come on man...this is about bikes, which we can all agree are AWESOME!!!
  • 2 1
 @SprSonik: ahhh, ya its all Trumps fault. got it.
  • 1 1
 @SprSonik: lol wait are you seriously saying that none of this is in Bidens control after your previous comments was blaming everything on Trump? Make up your mind, either POTUS is completely powerless to affect the economy or they're not, stop flip flopping every time you need to try to defend your flimsy ass argument.
  • 3 2
 @Caligula1620: I think the most fair take on it, trying to remove all personal bias (I detest Biden because of his history of sexual assault on women, but that has little to do with the global economy) is this:

1. When you have a global pandemic, people have to take sick days. This slows the economy, even though it turns out COVID19 isn't nearly as deadly or disruptive as we thought.
2. The CCP had authoritarian lockdowns, assassinations, cover ups, etc, that independent of people actually being sick really messed with supply and manufacturing in their country, and as a huge manufacturing economy for the rest of the world, it had cascading effects.
3. Trump preexisting tariffs increased import costs, but if anything this would reduce demand for imports and increase demand for domestically sourced products, and maybe even help the supply chain issues (I am very against these tariffs- but to give Trump a fair shake they were intended to be temporary to "punish" chinese officials and force them to stop doing shady stuff. That didn't work, and Biden has not rescinded the tariffs)
4. Trump banned all flights from China, which was pretty stupid because someone could just fly to Italy then to the USA and not be blocked. While this was ineffective at restricting movement from China to the US, it started the cascade of lockdowns across the country.
4. Lockdowns started in most states, making it illegal for people to work. This dramatically increased demand for preassembled, premanufactured, and mostly foreign goods, while transportation infrastructure was locked down (when health officials gave BLM protests a pass for social distancing, I knew it was all fake and there was no data supporting the effectiveness of lockdowns and social distancing).
5. Trump passed the first trillion dollar stimulus. Deficit spending makes us all poorer- its a hidden tax. People instinctively know this, so instead of saving or wisely spending income, they are forced by inflation to spend it immediately before its value goes down. This further inceases demand for foreign goods (since domestic manufacturing and services are locked down).
6. Biden enters office and passes even more stimulus. In 2008, the stimulus package was $800 billion, and that was unprecidented. The Trump stimulus was $1.2 trillion, and that was mind blowing. Well, now the cat is out of the bag and passing multi trillion dollar deficit spending plans is common. Rather than pumping the brakes on Trumps reckless spending, Biden doubled down and hit the gas. This is why inflation has passed 5% and will probably top out at nearly 10% in mid-2022. inflation causes chaos to the entire manufacturing supply chain. How can you place an order for 9 months from now if you have no idea what shipping will be? (my problem with my small business).
7. Biden has shut down the keystone XL pipeline, and has suggested he will shut down more (like the Line 5). You as a business have to guess what will and will not be available in the future, so if you suspect the Biden administration will revoke or not issue a permit for a pipeline, you have to hedge your bets and spend money elsewhere, even if the "ban" hasn't come yet or might not come. This dramatically increases oil prices in the present because people have to plan for the future.
8. Biden has threatened for months, and now actually executed, a vaccine mandate. Even before the mandate becomes binding, employers don't want to be targets so they start imposing mandates before they are mandated themselves.
9. Overly generous unemployment creates a labor shortage. Bidens continued "stimulus" and unemployment pays people to stay home, creating a labor shortage, which drives up prices. This is a positive feedback loop with the inflation created from stimulus, creating more inflation.
10. Biden Administration's continued denial of anything going wrong. In May, he trotted out Janet Yellen to say, "there is no inflation". After that lie, they said, "inflation will be transitory". After that lie, they started saying "inflation is good!" This makes it incredibly hard to plan for future investments, when the administration in charge of your regulatory body will not course correct.
11. Continued lockdowns. To quote Elon Musk, "if no one makes stuff, theres no stuff". Preventing people from making stuff means theres no new stuff, and the existing stuff becomes more in demand, raising its prices.

So only numbers 6 on are Bidens fault, but its the one thing that can be changed. Trump is gone. We can't pressure him into making different leadership choices. But Biden (or rather his handlers) can be with the threat of losing elections. His actions, while no where near 100% responsible for the mess we are in, are certianly responsible for a large portion of it.
  • 1 1
 @hamncheez: holy shit dude I was debating even responding to the other guy because it's all old info and meaningless so I'm not even going to pretend I read all of that ^. sorry
  • 23 1
 I just got an email from a supplier of extruded aluminum products (non-bicycle related) for my industry saying we would be seeing a minimum 9% price increase on January 1. This is the 3rd email of this type I have gotten from this vendor during the C-19 pandemic. I can say first hand that costs are going up by great leaps and bounds for raw materials.
  • 5 0
 I would be pleased with that - the price of our commerical grade aluminium bar stock has gone up over 100% in the past few months.

Some sizes / grades of aluminum we use are coming back as 'non quoting'.....
  • 7 23
flag rbonnell (Oct 25, 2021 at 10:23) (Below Threshold)
 @justanotherusername: Aluminum cost has not doubled in the past few months. What's happening between Al production and final product that you are being gouged for? I don't like that I have to question whether a business is using supply chain constraints to increase price further than actually necessary.
  • 19 3
 @rbonnell: I love when people who don't understand anything about business or economics start to think they are charity recipients of businesses. LoL
  • 18 1
 @rbonnell: ?? - Do you want me to send an invoice over to you?

OK some details - 6082 bar, supplied at approx £60 per bar- current offer price £132.00 - several suppliers all within pounds of the same, ordering significant QTY. Material suppler states this is largest increase since 2008.

Prices being gauged? This is bar stock, coming from a mill in mainland Europe and supplied to us in the UK.
  • 11 1
 @rbonnell: if you want some easy facts for you - google aluminium pricing, look at magnesium and silicone production, power restrictions, guinea bauxite mining issues, increase demand etc - I have been doing this a while, it pays my mortgage, I’m not making it up.
  • 2 0
 @justanotherusername: Push Ind was interviewed on the Vital podcast. He was talking about the cost a raw materials for his shocks. He is attempting to source everything in America and the costs are increasing massively.
  • 1 0
 @rbonnell: ATC trailers are full aluminum trailers and the prices are insane
Another price increase after the 1st
A once $60kish full built trailer is now $128k after the 1st
  • 1 0
 @jonemyers I work in alu foundry here in the UK. Gas prices went up 27% then, We used to pay £1.9k per ton of LM6. Oct saw it go to £2.5k per ton.... another price increase planed for Nov AND Dec!!! The reason is China is withholding silicon, a main alloy in LM6 and LM25 out two main alloys.
Bad times Frown
  • 7 0
 @justanotherusername: @justanotherusername: My question didn't come acrosss well. I wasn't suggesting what you were saying was incorrect. I was stating that the product you are using has increased in price considerably more than market Al (LME) and was curious what this was. didn't mean to offend.
  • 2 0
 @lefthandohvhater: Couldn't agree more.
  • 3 0
 @rbonnell: no offence taken.

A lot of raw material is priced to us a long time in the past, e.g. we agree 7-8 months ago a 6 month call off where we take stock monthly at a fixed price.

We came to an end of a call off a few months ago to an increase of around 65% - in the past few months this raised again to over 100% - totally astonishing but the worst is that some product is now ‘not quoting’ (directly from the mill in mainland Europe, one of the worlds largest) - they won’t even make it or if they can can’t say at what price, so this may just be getting started.
  • 1 0
 Steel prices in Perth, Aus have gone up over 50% since January. Crazy times to have things built
  • 27 10
 Smoke and mirrors:

+5% min wage labor of TW made parts ONLY, not total bike cost - low/little impact likely way less than 1%

Base frame price: +33% alu increase - Currently $2900/ton - 2900/2000*5=$7.25 vs $1800/ton typically before $1800/2000*5=$4.50 ===total frame increase of $2.75

Shipping: +$9,000/container divided by 500 bikes = +$18 per bike

Lead times / pent up demand - arbitrary numbers to help make the case for higher pricing.
  • 11 8
 Great, please let all of us kwon once you set up a bike company, pay ALL your employees enough to buy a condo in any West coast city and have bikes ready to ship 25-30% below current prices. I am sure you will make millions!!
  • 11 3
 Our round bars of aluminium are up more than 100% - that’s a round extruded bar, not a processed tube or hydroform.

Factored in the cost of power to produce the product? (Up a huge amount) How about increase of all other costs in the supply chain once in the destination country?

Then let’s add on the same increase to all parts that make up the bike, bars, stem, cranks etc etc… starts looking to be a little more than $18 doesn’t it?
  • 4 0
 The new bike I bought 2 months ago (that I have not received yet) is now being sold for $500 more.
  • 6 8
 @justanotherusername: Not really considerably more, no. Raw materials are such a small portion of the whole process, why make it sound like more than it is? Oh, right. Not supposed to talk about that...shhh...
  • 6 2
 @noapathy: Some of the products we make are around £5.00 in material and we sell for about £30.00 - less to trade customers

Double the cost of material and our overall margin disappears in smoke, especially as our power costs, wages, transport and supporting products and services all cost more.

We are raising prices of course, and making less money in the end.

Without being harsh, you talk shit.
  • 16 4
 Reality and sincerity:

Add that minimum wage to the dozens and dozens that touch each bike, and each small part of each bike and components - $20-$30.

Materials costs - Where's the scrap, shipping costs, and add value of turning this raw material into something? Also most all components have alloy in them. 10-15% total upcharge because of raw materials

Shipping: $9k shipping is the shipping line direct rate. Most bike companies don't move enough containers to book direct with shipping lines. Also this doesn't include the "premium fee" to actually get space. $9k is for "flying" standby and maybe if a spot opens up thy will get your container on the boat, but pay $3-4k premium to get space to actually move the bikes. Also this is only port to port cost. The inland moves are anywhere from $3-7k depending on location. So total container costs are $20k plus. Oh and if it's E-bikes, add another $2-3K/container. Most bike brands can only fit 200-250 bikes per container. So $20,000/container divided by 250 = $80, Best case scenario. Also don't forget outbound shipping to retailers or direct to consumer. Fedex just added another $40 "surcharge" a couple weeks ago.

Lead Times/Demand - People are giving money to shops and makers for there bikes months before delivery just to keep a spot in line. Brands are placing orders into 2024 for components. This is reflected in aftermarket supply for spare parts, and quoted lead-times people are seeing at shops and online. People are not commuting 2 hours/day, so they now have time to ride bikes.

Total uncharge - $260-300/ bike, and that doesn't count component cost uncharges. Run the through a business model for costing plus and then add distributor/retailer margin/upcahrge, and you are 800-$1000 more at the retail level.
  • 1 3
 @tcwersh: Damn you with all your logic! Wink
  • 3 4
 Looks like they're stickin' to the same ole lines. Gonna go hang out with some used car salesmen for some more honest conversation.
  • 2 1
 @stumphumper92: It's because the cost of plastic. LMAO
  • 1 2
 @noapathy: who are ‘they’?
  • 1 1
 @tcwersh: You speak the true true…..
  • 1 3
 @guide210: he wears the tin foil foil
  • 2 1
 what the actual f*ck are you on about?

"Shipping: +$9,000/container divided by 500 bikes = +$18 per bike" - what are these bikes? for borrowers?

avg bike box is say 0.9cbm, now we put em in a 20' container (cus you ain't getting a 40' for $9k), which has a TOTAL capacity (liquid capacity, not usable, especially with awkward sized bike boxes) of 33.2cbm. That's 36 bikes.

Even if we get super generous with our estimations of a bike box and how many you can fit in a container, you're still not getting more than 60 bikes in a 20' container. That's $150 shipping PER BIKE, just to get it from the Far East to the US.
  • 3 3
 @timlake: 'smoke and mirrors' - stop bringing actual facts into a conversation with someone who probably thinks Covid is made up, Trump won the election and the bike industry is run by a shady cabal who secretly meet on an island to discuss how to make billions ripping us all off.
  • 2 3
 @timlake: Interesting stats. If this were really true, explain walmart bikes, many of which don't even cost $150. They're still selling tons of those. Guess they're just losing money. Get real.
  • 4 1
 @noapathy OK, let me explain then.

1. Walmart bikes are own brand, so they only need to worry about their margin, rather than their margin, distributor margin and then dealer margin.

2. The bikes are smaller, and don't ship them in a box = more in a container.

3. There's probably no-one in the USA bringing in more containers than Walmart - that means you get exponentially better shipping rates.

4. Walmart margins are much, much lower than your average D2C bike brand due to the sheer amount of turnover they do.
  • 2 1
 @timlake: Seems plausible, but then it seems terribly inefficient for frame makers to ship a single frame per box or fully assembled bikes rather than bigger quantities more tightly packed with components in OEM packaging to be assembled later. I know I've gotten OEM packaged goods at certain websites in the past, so if they're not doing that they should. Creative solutions rather than just business as usual.
  • 2 2
 @noapathy: When the unassembled bike and tightly packed parts arrive to the destination country who do you propose unpacks them, builds the bikes and then packs them back away into those exact cardboard boxes so they can be shipped onto distributors or shops?

Its a separate argument as to if the domestic labour is a benefit but it sure will come at a cost.

I know of a few bike companies that do actually do this, but in the grand scheme of things they are very small - sub 10k sales per yr and are right at the premium end of the market.

You seem to be giving little respect to companies that likely employ logistics managers to tackle such tasks and assume you could solve the issue in a few mins on PB.
  • 2 0
 @justanotherusername: Why do we do it that way? Because that's how it's always been done and that's how the boss likes it. Heard it so many times.

Also, so many just working to get a paycheck, so do I think I could do better? Who knows? Not really the point. And you're making this sound way harder than it is. Lots of industries assemble their goods in the US from foreign-made components and do just fine. New problems sometimes require new solutions. Thinking outside the container.
  • 1 2
 @noapathy: I literally said that I am aware of several companies that do what you suggest but outlined the practical implications and your response is that the people making the decisions may be ‘working to get a paycheck’ or ‘the boss likes it’

Think I’ll leave this one here - maybe you should call there companies up and offer consultancy, their logistics and accounting team clearly needs your out of the box thinking…… riiiiight.
  • 2 1
 @justanotherusername: Sarcasm to try to make light of what's often a broken system. Been there, done that. The only thing these people want from consultants is a pat on the back. Guess you need one, too.

Good job, buddy. Have a cookie.
  • 1 1
 @noapathy: I like cookies.
  • 3 0
 The basic cost of raw material increase is not just a straight pass through all the way to the bike company. If the raw material raises a certain amount, then the mill will add their margin to that raise, the frame factory will add that margin to that amount raised, and so on. It compounds so that it reaches much larger amounts in the final product.

Also, if you can book me a container right now for $9k, or fit 500 bikes into a can, I will hire you today. And I actually do own a bike company. FYI - Containers fit about 160-200 bikes, and currently are booking at $17k. That has added about an actual $80 to the cost to bring a bike in from Asia, but then add brand margin to that $80, and then add shop margin to that brand increase, and it gets big quickly. Financing things is not free.
  • 1 2
 @tk55407: Even the chart in the article above shows less than you're saying (and on a downward trend). I found 40' containers to the US for less than that with a quick google search. Is their data that far off or do they jack up rates when you try to book? Also, I'm really not just guessing, but googling, though the initial 500 bike estimate was obviously unassembled now that I looked into it a bit more. www.brlogistics.net/us/ship-container-from-china/to-united-states
  • 2 1
 @noapathy: Container costs will be fluid and do seem to have dropped a little recently from $21k highs to around $15k but I’m sure you would agree it’s still slightly higher than sub $4k, isn’t it?

Companies need to cost items based on reality at the point of costing that item, a bike can’t go up and down by $100 over the course of the year as varying costs fluctuate.

Out of interest, what do you do for a living? You seem to think this is all very simple yet it’s troubling many of the best companies in the world outside of the bike industry too.
  • 1 1
 @justanotherusername: Go eat your cookie. I wasn't talking to you.
  • 1 0
 @bman33: Interesting that these articles are when pricing was on an upward trend, but yes, I'm aware prices are still high. Wink

I also watched that video on freightos. It makes me wonder why they'd send the ships to Long Beach, only to be anchored there for 2 weeks or more and lose/waste the use of the ship/containers/fuel/etc for that time and compound the problem when they already know there's a bottleneck. I'm sure there's more to it than that, but it really seems like there should be a better, more efficient solution.
  • 2 1
 @noapathy: I’m all out of cookies my man, in the same way you seem to be all out of factual argument.

You seen pretty full of shit and conspiracy though….
  • 1 0
 @noapathy: on your Long Beach point, I fully agree. I cannot be efficient for a ship that large, with that much cargo to sit idle for weeks /months on end. I am not familiar with all the different ports in the US that can handle those ships, but I suspect someone /team needs to come in an work on some viable solutions.
  • 3 1
 @noapathy: The long beach port is in the top ten of largest ports in the world, it’s receiving record numbers of imports and there is a driver shortage preventing swift movement of containers.

The driver shortage is likely a country wide issue and the events taken place over the past year or so are unprecedented - I am sure attempts are being made to rapidly resolve the situation but resources are finite.
  • 1 0
 @bman33: Right? Reducing the wasted resources to lower costs in the interim until more permanent solutions are found. I can't be the only one to think of this, so it makes me wonder how long it'll continue. I only heard one news story about the current gov't pushing the Long Beach port to operate 24/7 to help alleviate the issue, but nothing since. And nothing about adding capacity into the transport/distribution end, but I honestly haven't kept up on that front and I'm sure it'll take time to implement. If it works, though, like the article says, "it'll open the gates".

www.npr.org/2021/10/14/1046140284/among-the-countrys-supply-chain-problems-bottlenecking-at-ports-like-long-beach
  • 1 0
 @bman33: Can't edit for some reason...anyway

LA and Long Beach both going 24/7 - these two ports account for 40% of goods imported. They've done it before to speed things up. It still seems like a stop-gap measure, but at least it's feasible.
  • 19 3
 It's cheaper now to buy a brand new bike than some of these ridiculously over priced secondhand bikes. People asking 4k for a 4yr old YT and 3k for a 5yr old session.

Let's just be clear here tho, with demand so high the manufacturers can hike prices. Why would they increase production and risk a crash ?
  • 16 2
 Selling a 2019 propain tyee ( gx, formula fork and brakes, cane creek double barrel)right now for 1.9 k euros , not many people interested. I think second hamd market is not as bad as some think.
  • 33 0
 Bike shops that are listing brand new bikes are killing the pinkbike buy/sell.
  • 7 0
 There is no capacity in the factories to increase production to a level necessary to meet the demand.
  • 8 1
 Right? It's honestly ridiculous.
Just came across a guy asking 4k for a 2019 Stumjumper Comp. Like, mate, what are you trippin on? That wasn't even worth those 4k when it was brand new.
  • 11 7
 And in some special cases its cheaper now to buy a dirtbike. If raw material and labor prices are the issue, then how is this true? Yamaha YZ450F, MSRP: $9599. S-Works Enduro, MSRP: $10,500

I mean what gives here? Simply put, one of these has a freaking ENGINE, and the other has pedals...which you have to buy.
  • 5 0
 @optimumnotmaximum: Agreed. People are posting for sky-high prices but I don't think they are selling for that. I just sold top spec bike from 2019 and I couldn't get as much as I thought for it.
  • 8 2
 @justinc5716: Yes on the face of it it's absurd, but I imagine that Yamaha is more vertically integrated than the pedal bike cos. They probably have more control over their own factories and what they're paying employees. Likely have secured raw materials long in advance given their scale. The engines are used across several different model platforms and manufacturing has been scaled. R&D has been absorbed... ie the modern four stroke engine for MX has been around for close to 20 years. Suspension R&D has long be absorbed. Honestly the best thing for MTB is for motorsports companies to continue to get involved through their eMTBs so they can bring their long ago sunk costs in R&D, supply chain, and manufacturing to this industry. Most MTB companies are effectively design houses with a lot of third parties involved in bring their products to market.
  • 12 0
 I offered someone new MSRP on a year old Ibis and he not so politely informed me there was no way he could go that low and to not low-ball him. It was stock.
  • 4 1
 @BenTheSwabian: asking and getting a piece are 2 very different things
  • 1 1
 @hornedreaper33: How do you know this.
  • 26 8
 Harder and harder to hide purchases on the the Visa bill....this is slowly going to become a rich, old, white guys sport. I refer to it as being "Outsided".
  • 5 0
 Just do what I do with motorcycles, but slightly used versions at markdown from said old rich white guys.
  • 8 1
 @withdignityifnotalacrity: I love the bike of the year from 3-4 yrs ago....Although this shortage has put a wrench in my clearance and used parts/bike buying strategy. Folks are asking crazy prices for used shit you could get for a steal pre-covid.
  • 1 0
 Going to become?
  • 1 0
 @steamthief: You have been outsided from the PB comment section for lack of a sarcasm detector
  • 23 3
 Bonuses need paying
  • 5 30
flag conoat (Oct 25, 2021 at 12:02) (Below Threshold)
 that's the dullest edgelord take your 17 year old mentality could muster, huh?
  • 14 1
 @conoat: you should Try reading some of the bike company accounts.
  • 1 21
flag conoat (Oct 25, 2021 at 12:46) (Below Threshold)
 @chrismac70: OMG. you truly think that all these bike companies are run by the guy that tied women to railroad tracks in silent movies, huh? LMAO
  • 3 0
 I love how so many consumers defend bike prices like they want to pay multi thousands for bikes. Of course nothing is going to change the fact bike prices are expensive, but doesn't mean I am not gonna bitch about the $7k I just spent on a bike especially when I can get a really nice dirtbike for the same price (yes I made the most overused comparison again but it is true.)
  • 1 2
 @stumphumper92: you know you can get a bike for $350 right? just like you can buy a Honda for $17,000?

what makes you think a Ferrari(that $7k bike you ponied up for) should cost what a f*cking Honda does?
  • 17 3
 Let's be honest, even if the costs of shipping and raw materials go down to 2018 levels, bike prices will NEVER go down... brands will find new reasons (mostly out of thin air) to justify the still-high prices ..
  • 16 3
 I hope with increase in labor cost overseas we will see more in house bike manufacturing! If we gonna pay someone a livable wage to make bikes shouldn’t it be people in our community?
  • 5 2
 Maybe to problem isn't being paid a living wage but the cost of that living wage in a given country...... There's a reason the people making our bikes in for Eastern countries can't afford to ride them themselves....
  • 1 0
 @nojzilla: I’m a little late to the party, can’t comment on what’s a “living wage” in Taiwan. I do know of a certain well know brand who’s handle bars cost 17USD each ex factory are sold for 120AUD RRP. That’s a pretty handy mark up...
  • 1 0
 @JoshieK: A LOT lower than ours! hence why stuff can be made cheaper there. Also need to factor in quality of life...etc etc
MTB industry is CRAZY for mark ups, I used to work in the BMX/Skate shop world an the mark ups are tiny but high volume sales aposed to MTB that used to be the oppsite until recently.........
  • 14 0
 Looks like my 5 year old Capra will see another few years of riding
  • 9 1
 No shame in that!!
  • 9 0
 Note that those wages converted to USD are the new wages, NOT the difference. Not sure why the author only converted the new minimums and not the previous ones. Maybe to mask the fact that the hourly increase is a whopping USD$0.29?
  • 12 1
 #1 - 5: Supply and Demand
  • 8 7
 .....of money.

governments have hugely inflated supply.....so what happens? everyone demands more of it for goods and services. GENIUS f*ckING MOVE!!!!
  • 6 3
 @conoat: It’s a factor but Covid, Brexit, power generation, changing society / instability etc have all played roles too, it’s a perfect storm.
  • 9 11
 @justanotherusername: dude......Covid(or the economic shutdown); government

Brexit: government
power generation: government regulations


instability? wanna guess where that fault lies?
  • 20 1
 @conoat: what’s the alternative to government? King conoat the merciful?
  • 16 14
 @justanotherusername: I am not that merciful, actually.

the answer, is freer markets, less regulation, Abolish the Federal Reserve(in the US. other countries have similar issues) and return to a secured monetary standard, Allow businesses no matter how big to fail.

Governments should have zero power in the economy. Economies are self sufficient, because at their root they are me buying a bike from you at a price we both agreed on.
  • 9 8
 @conoat: well I agree with almost none of that what so ever, but I’m not as rich / successful as you so wouldn’t.
  • 9 9
 @justanotherusername: do you not agree becuase you do not understand, or because you have a rational defence of things such as fiat currency, onerous regulation and bailing out banks?
  • 5 1
 @conoat: I did say almost none - I think bailing out banks and retaining the staff who caused the issue was abhorrent, at very least the architects of the problem should have walked.

How can you accuse me of 'not understanding' something that does not take place in practice anywhere in the world? - you are asking me to judge a fantasy of your own creation - a dream world of someone like yourself who thinks such a world would be a playground for your immense capability and prowess.

Do I think we should have regulation? - Absolutely, there are enough crimes committed against the planet and humanity by companies even in our current state of regulation that you claim is not required - I dont fancy living in a world where minimum wages dont exist, companies can dump what they like into the environment and treat their staff in whichever way they feel fit - is health and safety 'regulation'?

Should we regulate medical development? How about the inclusion of chemicals in food production? Pesticides in agriculture?

King Conoats wonderful world doesnt sound too wonderful to me, sounds like a stinking, corporate run cess-pit. - Thankfully your fantasies are just that.

I run a business, I am not anti capitalism, I employ people who are paid less than I am, I make a profit from labour and from product and some of my activities are made more difficult by regulation but overall I am happy with the situation and actual reality.
  • 2 6
flag conoat (Oct 26, 2021 at 8:26) (Below Threshold)
 @justanotherusername: you are cute. I mean, I am sure that blue pill was delicious and all, but it isn't for me.

regulation is not the only mechanism by which companies do not dump toxic waste into your drinking water. I mean, if that is the upper limits of your critical thinking skills, I see no further point in discussing this with you.

Just go back to running justanotherusername burger flipping school or whatever, content in your knowledge that the government will wipe your ass and keep you from making mistakes, all for the low low price of your liberty.
  • 4 1
 @conoat: Brilliant reply - ‘blue pill’? Are you a 14 year old Qanon follower?

Of course regulation is the only means by which things like that are prevented, history proves that as fact - unless you can indicate otherwise, how would you prevent a factory from disposing of waste into the water system for example?

Not all of us are ex barmen that can classify ourselves as men of leisure - we are not all as successful.

Just because some of us think sensible regulation (difficult to define I admit) is beneficial it doesn’t mean we want the government to ‘wipe our ass’ - sometimes it’s nice to know regulation will stop someone else from ruining our lives without us consenting you them doing so.

We are not all anachro-capitalists (you need to check your own spelling there) - critical thought? As someone so binary in their views how could you criticise others there?
  • 1 5
flag conoat (Oct 26, 2021 at 10:31) (Below Threshold)
 @justanotherusername: lol. happy I have residency in your head! how long did it take you to dig through past comments?

good day, ya loony Canuck!
  • 2 1
 @conoat: Residency in my head? - more like 10 seconds on google to a Twitter account where someone posts content I won’t re-write on here as its too offensive?

Im British by the way, born and live in England, I’m not a ‘Canuck’

Great response though, clear to see there is zero substance behind your bile.
  • 1 1
 @justanotherusername: oooof. english and not canadian? that's even worse!
  • 8 0
 Just received my GG Shredd Dogg frame, building it up with all the random parts I bought over the last year when I found them cheap. It just takes patience and looking beyond the mainstream companies.
  • 7 0
 Did I miss the point where the discuss how central banks have created trillions in new currency? The federal reserve has increased the money supply by over 30% since the pandemic was declared. Meanwhile production has been disrupted. More dollars chasing fewer products will lead to increased prices. Central banks and fiat money benefit the big banks, big corporations, big government and politically connected at the expense of everyone else.
  • 10 1
 The best part of Covid is having something to blame everything and anything on.
  • 5 0
 Funnily enough my LBS say the interest for new bikes has more or less vanished. Also seems to me that most of the 2nd hand bikes offered on the largest online site in my country are...not being sold at the asked silly prices, or at all.

Additionally, during Covid we had a boom of new people on the trails (most of them older dudes on eMTBs), and they've stopped riding, at least locally. Many have put up their bikes for sale. Trails that have seen new use are growing over again.

Might just be from my lens, of course. Maybe it'll go away and the bike I have ordered will arrive before I retire anyway.
  • 4 0
 I see it too! I never see the typical new riders anymore besides maybe a nice Saturday afternoon. But at the height of the bike boom trails were full of new riders every day of the week. Maybe we will be back to semi normal with only the new riders who really love the sport before long.
  • 5 0
 That's the nature of things. Anyone that's been around to experience more than 30 solar trips knows. Glad our frame makers are being paid a fair-er? wage and glad I bought 3 new bikes this year. I'm set for a decade.
  • 1 0
 dude, you are set for life!
  • 3 0
 Level-headed thinking is outdated man, get with the times and pick something to be mad at
  • 1 0
 @Qbikes47: Did you just assume my gender?
  • 9 1
 Hyperinflation becoming a little more real?
  • 12 8
 it's the *effects* of inflation.

Inflation already happened, boys! monetary inflation is when the supply of money is increased. that happened already. to the tune of TENS OF TRILLIONS(with a T). Now the chickens are home to roost. buckle up, buttercup! $20k non-ebike will be here by 2024.
  • 6 0
 They can go up all they want. I’m done spending an arm and a leg on bikes. I’ll ride the ones I have until they fall apart.
  • 6 0
 The cure to higher prices, is high prices. It will settle down eventually as buyers will pull back. Personally, I'll keep my clunkers for a while.
  • 4 0
 Some funny comments here. This article would have been a lot better had the author also "steel-manned" the other side of this. While I agree, prices will be rising in the short term, there are other factors in play; most of which are specific to the bike industry that could change the demand side of the equation. Including, but not limited to, the number of newer riders who "wash out" of the sport, stimulus money drying up, unemployed people going back to work (and riding less), inflation pinching the "everday rider's" pocketbook more than they can handle, and simply people just flat realizing there are a myriad of cool things out there to do. This has been mountain biking's golden era, I'm just not sure if its sticky enough to...stick around. (hope I'm wrong!)
  • 4 1
 A good friend of mine is a buyer for a very large bike retailer. Says his current order of 12sp chains is scheduled for delivery in December of *next year* and doesn’t expect the shortages to get resolved before 2024.

I’d recommend ‘downgrading’ to 11sp if you want to have access to any drivetrain components in the next couple of riding seasons.
  • 5 2
 All that being said, despite these steep price hikes, you often get better value when ordering a new bike these days compared to buying used. The only thing that exploded even more than bike prices is used bike prices. It's ridiculous.
  • 7 4
 1. There is a sucker born every minute
2. Bob cannot ride a double diamond without MORE travel
3. No one is buying the "you need three mountain bikes" thing
4. Supply chain issues because planning is hard guys
5. The price of living is getting so bad no one can afford a car
  • 8 1
 I'm sure we'll "build Back Better" right after the "Great Reset".
  • 3 0
 How do you spec out a 2023/2024 bike this far in advance? Do the component manufacturers even know what sort of product changes they will be offering, or are manufacturers basically just like "OK I need 500 units of the Fox 36 or whatever its comparable replacement will be at the time"
  • 8 0
 In the past the bike manufacturers knew what was coming down the pipe from parts manufacturers pretty well. But doing BOMs for 2-3 years ahead is probably a bit of a nightmare.
  • 1 0
 I would guess that the 2023 development cycle would normally be well under way by now, budgets need set, staffing levels CAR's need factored in. Tooling isn't quick either.
But ....
We may see quicker developments and not slower due to the current situation with supply chain, companies may be more aggressive than normal to fill a demanding market.

Due to their low to medium volume manufacture, I wouldn't want an e-bike just now, the market for parts is maybe a little competitive than its ever been.

Just a hunch/guess.
  • 3 0
 yeah eventually, we could/may be paying about the same price for goods made in the US or made in Taiwan. tariffs should slowly bring back more scale to domestic manufacturing, whether in AUS, US, UK, EU etc. Frames and parts might increasingly become more competetive if made domestically as the cost of imported goods rise. It would reduce lead time.
this where industry should be headed. a change in how global trade is managed. maybe even statndards will stay the same for awhile.
  • 3 0
 Exchange rate. This one was not covered in the article but is a huge one. The Taiwan dollar has been the strongest Asian currently the last year. It is hitting all time record strength. There has been over 10% decrease in buying power with the US dollar and Taiwan. There have been hundreds of dollars in cost in creases on high end bikes by exchange rate alone.
  • 4 0
 5 Reasons Bike Prices Will Probably Keep Rising in 2022: Reasons #1-#5: Consumers will pay a high price for mountain bikes.

Is the price increase happening in other industries - motorcycles et al?
  • 3 0
 Yeh, this is expected. You say greed to them. They say greed to you. Do you NEED a new bike, like need it. Or NEED to change them tyres before they're totally f*cked. To be honest

YES and I'll pay what ever I have to to do so until I can make my own. (Doubtful)

Bikings expensive. Work hard save money. Or work harder, smarter and save money or, get a second job, work hard save money.

There's no way around it. Think about your future, plan it out, don't complain when things seem expensive TO YOU. Make it so it's not.

Don't let yourself down in life and not be able to buy a sweet bike. You are the controller. Control it. Ride hard. Don't complain, just f*cking send it.
  • 3 0
 1-4 are true, but ludicrously irrelevant. #5 is everything- sellers will charge what the market will bear, and that is _the only_ reason bike prices are what they are.
Take cars as a counter point: vastly more labour in manufacture, 2 orders of magnitude more raw and finished materials required, far higher transport costs per unit, and much longer and more intricate supply chains.

Despite this, a new small car like a Hyundai Venue (complete with active safety features, 8" touchscreen with wireless Carplay, 6 airbags and a 5-year unlimited km warranty etc etc) is only AUD$23990, yet a Santa Cruz Hightower in XO1 build would cost me AU$12249.
  • 5 1
 Don’t forget number 6: manufacturers haven’t invested in lowering costs to consumer, only incremental improvements that they can charge more for.
  • 3 1
 Supply chain is only going to get worse over the next 12 to 18 months.
Even climate change is playing a part with parts of China on 3 day weeks to keep energy usage down from non recyclables.
It's a nightmare out there just now I'm so many industries.
The nightmare can make keeping lines going a challenge
I work in the medical sector and have never seen it like this is in 25 years in R&D!
  • 5 0
 # one on the list: Because enough people are willing to pay the asking price to continue doing so.
  • 3 0
 Bike companies can start building in Idaho. It's only $1.27 more an hour to hit Idaho's minimum wage compared to Taiwan AND they can put "MUSA" on it so they could charge even more!
  • 4 1
 she'll be right... a massive economic crash is just around the corner...China invades Taiwan and kicks of WWIII no ones going to care about the MTB prices Or am I just being sceptical
  • 9 7
 Oh let's see, overreact to an endemic virus to get Bad Orange Man out office so he doesn't interfere with the crashing of world economies just in time for the world bank to save everyone. You will own nothing and be happy. What, you got into an argument with your neighbor, that's not allowed, you have lost access to your checking account for 1 week.
  • 3 1
 It's called inflation and it's what happens when you print money that has nothing backing it. You can not pay millions of people to not create a good or service. This isn't unique to this industry. This is simple economics. Hyper inflation is about to rock the entire globe. Buckle up.
  • 3 0
 Buckle up for the inflationary ride, but put your multi-point harness on for the correction on the other side. It's going ot hurt, and hurt bad.
  • 1 0
 And all by design.
  • 2 0
 "However, the price is still magnitudes higher than it has been previously as the above graph from the Financial Times shows."

Magnitude is a numerical quantitative measure expressed usually as a multiple of a standard unit. In the realm of decimal numbers, 'magnitudes higher' means tens, hundreds, thousand times the original value. I believe we are far from such a price increase. I may be wrong though as I am not a native EN speaker.
  • 2 0
 A couple thoughts:
1) I wonder with multiple sourcing that companies are turning to, how will the quality assurance work across suppliers?
2) Which company will go under first, how can they put up money for products all the way to 2023/2024 without having money coming in from sales because there are no products to sell.
  • 2 0
 Maybe just maybe they don't need to produce a new model bike every year, maybe they don't need 10 standards for the same part from different manufacturers. A decent bike will can last 5-10 years but can only be on trend for a year
  • 3 0
 Watching the recent Steve Pete video with the old V10 dh bike, only 7 seconds slower, none of us need a new bike at all... I'll be keeping my 2015 model for another 6 years at this rate.
I did nearly buy a new bike early covid when everyone else was, but I thought, why do I ride?... To keep fit and have fun.... would spending $7-8k on a new bike make me fitter? No.... Would I have more fun?.... No... So I kept my current one
  • 3 1
 Hey @Pinkbike, you forgot to mention the fact that there are container ships sitting off the coast of california waiting to be unloaded, but because california has such strict covid laws, they aren't able to retain good workers who would then unload the barges. It is apparent that Pinkbike swings liberal simply because of their reporting style... (not laying out ALL of the facts.)
  • 3 2
 I think you can forget seeing any change into much further away than 2022....

If you have a lead-time of 12 months and the factory is at capacity in order to deliver that, there are only two ways things improve: - The factory massively increases capacity, and fast or - People stop ordering entirely allowing the factory to catch up.

Factory expansion to the required level and speed just isnt going to happen and people are still ordering, so how are lead-times going to come down by any useful amount?
  • 3 0
 This is why I am hording everything I can (minus toilet paper that's just dumb...or is it?). This inflation bubble is getting bigger and bigger....
  • 5 1
 Gotta love how many "lightly used" classifieds for bikes are listed higher than MSRP right now.
  • 1 0
 I bought a really nice new bike - I destroyed the left crank arm on ride 6. I have not been able to ride since (over a month) as I cannot get cranks or crank arms that will fit with my strongly preferred spindle size (30mm spindles just sell/landfill more BBs cause they have to make the bearings too small for the task - it's not cool)
  • 2 0
 Intend has 30mm
  • 3 0
 I'm sure the cargo ship that is on fire off the coast of BC contains tons of bikes and parts for Canada. This will surely cause more delays and price increases.
  • 8 0
 Yeah but "oil slick" is so hot right now!
  • 7 2
 If you suckers keep paying, they'll keep charging.
  • 5 0
 Rising prices have been a quick and effective cure for my upgraditis.
  • 1 0
 I didn't order a new frameset because I won't need it until next year and the price has already gone up $100! I also just ordered a bike for my wife even though she realistically won't ride it now until April or May a. so we have it, and b. in case the price goes up between now and then...
  • 3 0
 But the geometry will be out of date by then bruh!
  • 4 3
 I got a shipping quote from sending via bike flights from one Canadian city to another. It is about 200. Then the large store who is packing it up offered to check their rates. Twenty bucks. Stop f*IMG pretending that this is about anything more than opportunity. Bike flights is cheap and passing on some savings. Not intended to belittle them. Just to point out how ridiculous this concept that everything is going up so much is. The trip Roscoe for my kid went up 300$. I'm putting my foot down. The only legit comment in that article is that demand has increased and however much it costs we all think that we are "Worth it" which is a comment coined by marketing to make us feel better about ourselves and bas about our self neglect if we don't. I'm lucky in that I'm getting a good price on used bike but there is no further necessary betterment to bikes. Geometry, boost, etc has reached a Pinnacle. We as consumers should all be done buying and ride what we have and enjoy when prices come back down.
  • 1 0
 A lot of workers in the bicycle supply chain in Taiwan (especially if you go one layer down) are paid minimum salary, a big part of them being foreign workers from South East Asia.
Another reason why prices for carbon frames will creep up: It got incrdibly hard for Chinese factories to purchase carbon fiber from Toray after some raw material was found on a ship from China to Iran: www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/06/14/national/japanese-carbon-fiber-bound-for-iran-seized-u-n-report
  • 1 0
 I read the article, then read through the comments section, nodded a few times, shook my head a few times more... It's like, you put facts in front of people, some sane ones write a few stories from their own experiences which make sense, then come the insane ones who simply ignore everything that happens in the real world and start ranting about this and that...greed and capitalism... Just another day on Pinkbike and the web in general. Funny thing would be to put those who rant like crazy in charge and see what would happen Big Grin We'd have shit product at sky high prices and a supply chain so disorganized, nobody would ever get their bikes. But hey, rant on...we're better off with the professionals in charge Wink
  • 1 0
 I read through the whole enchilada about the 5 reasons bike prices will continue to go up in 2022. Some of the things that seem hard to believe are the prices of raw materials, cardboard and shipping prices. At some point, these bikes can be manufactured in Canada or the lower 48 when the cost of shipping outweighs cost of workers. To that point, the most frivolous of what I read is the bit about future R&D etc. I believe bike companies have to be in meetings evaluating where their bikes fall on the scale of modern geometry, build kit and where that falls against competition. At some point, those companies have to ask the question, do we need R.S. Flight Attendant -or- is having product to sell more important and will riders be happy to reach down to turn HSC/LSC and continue riding. If I was Commencal, Pivot, Specialized, Ibis, Canyon, Santa Cruz, Knolly, Kona etc. I would value getting bikes to shops and consumers instead of over-saturating feature of nominal return. Bikes are already long, slack and low, ride killer to the point of bikes being a spoil of riches as far as performance. Other companies in the weeds with regards to geo etc. might look at this time to step back and re-configure to what consumers are looking for. If shipping is that ridiculous and cardboard went up over 1000% maybe companies should be talking about a fleet of box vans that carry 45 bikes and hit the road delivering to shops themselves. That might be more appropriate meeting material than extra gadgets, when can we get them and how more are the bikes going to cost?
  • 1 0
 Really struggle to have issues with workers wanting a better wage and industries polluting less, particularly big economies like China. But with all the price increases that have come in the last 18 months, I find that bikes and parts manufactured in U.S. and Europe really don't cost that much more than stuff from the far east. So I favor buying from these companies over the big brands that outsource production, mostly because of the pollution in shipping luxury goods thousands of miles around the world. So while I support cleaner manufacturing with better-paid workers the reality is I'm less likely to purchase from these companies as if two items are within about 10% of each other I'll buy the one made locally(relatively speaking)
  • 10 7
 Probably 5 reasons I am not going to buy a new bike in 2022
#boycotbikepriceincrease
  • 7 14
flag justanotherusername (Oct 25, 2021 at 11:14) (Below Threshold)
 #boycottdumbassbikegreece
  • 5 10
flag PaPas (Oct 25, 2021 at 11:33) (Below Threshold)
 #boycottdumbassbikegreece
  • 3 1
 This is all clearly a global conspiracy between Specialized and Yeti so they have an alibi to release their first +20k model next year
  • 1 0
 Missed that boat already
  • 5 5
 Cut Middel Man this will be local bike shop they have got pretty fat fee for ONLY selling a bike .
I would like to pay more people that actualy are doing something like people in factory than Paying Fee to Bike Shop ... For what we are actualy have to pay them? Ahh right we are paying them to order our bike from Bike Brand . I can do this by myself. There is already something like direct to consumer
  • 4 0
 Damn those greedy Taiwanese workers with their $45 per month pay rise!
  • 2 1
 I can keep my 6 year old Capra running but I am no longer putting off the stuff I want for my truck - armor and mods from small fab shops, etc......buy now or PAY later! Boycott Amazon.
  • 3 0
 My slayer got stolen from me at the worst time possible. I can't see myself getting another bike for a long time Frown
  • 1 1
 Looking forward to getting screwed this year.

I’m just glad that when I get my overpriced bike with subpar components it will be helping to support an entire ecosystem of YouTubers and social influencers with free bikes and free product.
  • 2 0
 "1 Reason Bike Prices Will Definitely Keep Rising in 2022"
Money printer goes Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
FYP
  • 1 1
 These new bikes are hyper advanced super engineered, loaded with ultra modern components. You can go mountain biking on an older clapped out hardtail rig, but it aint gonna float in the park and make you feel like a god cruising through rugged terrain. (I take the old clapper. But envy the guys airing doubles. Cant do on the old turd.) My rig is glorified hiking, but the 6k saved buys a wr450f. With change left over. The wr doesnt feel like a god. IT IS A GOD. plus it will do 70+ on the highway plated legal. You just cant get snarly performance for penny. One way or another you gotta pay to play.
  • 1 0
 In the UK you can also add about an extra 14% onto the cost of a bike, according to one European brand to import bikes into the the UK. Thanks Brexit, its working out so well.
  • 1 0
 has there ever been a time where bike prices didnt go up?
its R&D..
we dont sell that many units..
we have sold out all our units...
its raw materials....
its shipping costs.....
  • 2 0
 July 1st 2022 the longshoremen go on strike again. You think it’s going to get better next year? Ha!!
  • 3 0
 Well, I'd better be fiscally responsible and buy another bike.....
  • 3 1
 Supply vs Demand covid bikes for sale soon get ready for the price crash in the following recession.
  • 1 0
 That's what I am thinking also, it's a good time to sell your excess stuff at a premium. In a year or two you can probably buy slightly used stuff at low prices.
The whole stock/housing market is one big bubble at the moment, when it pops, it will take everything along with it.
  • 4 1
 People just need to stop being A type consumers.
  • 4 1
 There's a sucker born every minute?
  • 3 0
 Messing with markets creates inflation? News to me, wow!
  • 2 0
 yeah its not the gov't printing money with nothing physical (gold) backing it or anything. . .
  • 1 0
 @valleyimagewerx: that's never once backfired before, ever. Free money, yay!
  • 1 0
 is a supply chain issue (supply and demand), and it is going to affecting both new and used bike markets, i suspect that price will even higher than in 2022.
  • 2 0
 Hot take…mountain biking is mainstream, wait, everything is mainstream why does anyone do anything anymore?!?!
  • 3 0
 "I believe it's transitory.” - J. Yellen
  • 2 0
 I believe I'll have another beer.
  • 1 0
 I predict a new trend for 2022, getting back to basics, single speed rigid hardtails, cheap, reliable and last for ages. Get back to our younger days.
  • 1 0
 What sucks is if you want to buy a bike before the inevitable price increase, you can't. Buying a bike these days is like hedging.
  • 5 2
 Buy used!
  • 5 1
 Dude have you seen the BuySell? People are asking MSRP for used, if not more.
  • 4 0
 @BenTheSwabian: Some yes, not everyone is capitalizing ( Covid tax ) on the demand though. Scored two good deals in the past year myself.
  • 2 0
 Because they can an we will....
  • 4 2
 6. Those tasty profits are just too delicious.
  • 2 0
 And what will outcomes be if China invades Taiwan?
  • 6 0
 You wont need to worry, cos nuclear war will have flattened everything!!
  • 1 0
 All of our bikes being requisitions by the government to melt down and use in military application.
  • 2 2
 There is no consensus that higher minimum wages least to wage rises across the wage scale. It's disingenuous to say this is the case.
  • 2 0
 Sack the pros. Bikes sell themselves.
  • 9 6
 #LETSGOBRANDON
  • 1 0
 Just got delivery of my new bike 2 weeks ago. Glad I did! The price had already jumped 5% while I was waiting for it.
  • 1 0
 You reckon the old grannies they have laying carbon for all those high end frames aren’t on minimum wage?..
  • 2 0
 BUY SECOND HAND STOP BUYING NEW STUFF
  • 1 0
 lesson here is: dont sell your old bike till your new one is in your hands, tuned, and working correctly..
  • 1 0
 oh well time to buy a bike in 2023
  • 28 28
 Reason #6: Bike riders are suckers who willingly pay artificially inflated prices for crap engineering
  • 18 3
 You just read the article above and call all of that artificial?
  • 10 9
 Let me guess, you think Covid isn’t real too eh?

Can you call my aluminium supplier up and ask him to drop the price back down 65% too - tell him it isn’t real, I’m sure that will work.
  • 3 4
 @bman33: "Premium"-brands still make a killing on selling products with a 30% brand tax to people willing to buy them. It's not unreasonable to call those prices artificially inflated. They've always been.
  • 7 3
 @BenTheSwabian: it’s called business, they sell luxury goods to affluent people for hobbies, not food, medicine or housing.
  • 6 2
 @BenTheSwabian: If you are offended by a bike company making money, you have a serious problem. Go digging to find out how much those shoes, t-shirts, or jeans/pants you are wearing cost vs. what the retailer charges. Love how folks like you demand 'higher wages' then in the same breath turn around and complain about pricing.
  • 4 0
 @bman33: Whoa there buddy. What makes you think I'm offended? I'm absolutely not. Where are you gathering that I'm demanding higher wages? "Folks like you" - no need for those presumptions.

All I'm saying is that there's more to pricing structures than just covering manufacturing costs and increasing raw material and labor prices aren't the only factors responsible for expensive bikes. It's always been this way.
  • 2 1
 Well if you were a fantastically talented materials engineer, would you be working at a bike company?
  • 3 0
 @justanotherusername: Obviously. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. I just said that there's no need to cry about pricing, because as you correctly said bikes are luxury goods and prices have always been inflated. We accepted the industries pricing standards before there were actual economic factors driving them up - which makes it seem a bit hypocritic to now suddenly start complaining.
  • 3 1
 "no need to cry about pricing"..."they sell luxury goods to affluent people for hobbies"...exactly my point. How exactly is that not an artificial markup? The fact is that for years we have paid ever-increasing premiums for shite engineering for decades before Covid. The bike consumer without an engineering degree is never the wiser.
  • 2 3
 @rip8569: So making a profit is ‘ripping you off’?

Sure, some brands capitalise on their brand status, just like in any market but do you really think the whole industry is a cabal set to rip off the customer?

Odd way of singling out the bike industry, i assume you don’t own a phone, computer, car, any branded clothes, infant I assume you live in a grass mound and eat beetles?
  • 3 1
 @justanotherusername: I didn't say making a profit is ripping anyone off. Making an excessive profit absolutely is though and that is precisely what is happening throughout the industry. Is it an organized effort? Of course it is. If you don't think these companies are out to extract every dime they can from riders you have basically just refuted all of your own arguments. Singling out the bike indu8stry? Absolutely not. The drive to extract maximum profit out of consumers impacts every facet of our lives. I'm just not an apologist for an ever-increasing cost of living to benefit a rich prick who doesn't even push a button on the line so he can keep his 500 ft yacht gassed up. You seemingly love simping for that guy though.
  • 2 2
 @rip8569: I run a small business, I understand how short sighted those who don’t understand the full costs involved can be when they assume business owners make ‘huge profits’ - some do of course.

But, big but. Most bosses in the bike industry up until recently started by getting their hands dirty, at least packing boxes and shipping, they aren’t the 500ft yacht bankers, hedge fund managers, speculators etc that you should really be pissed of about, the people worth hundreds of millions or billions.

I’m sure the big bike companies make decent profits and they are now owned by venture capitalists but that’s the reality of modern economics but if you think say the owner of Transition, Evil, Orange bikes etc are all 500ft boat owners you may want a reality check.

Yet again though - luxury product, not essential, sold to rich 30-60yr old men, our choice to keep buying, nobody is being exploited.
  • 4 0
 @justanotherusername: I am obviously not talking about small business owners or even the mid-size companies you're talking about if I am talking about 500 ft yachts...you're just trying to make it easier to frame your argument by fabricating my argument with things I didn't say and positions I didn't take. Your strawman argument aside, we actually agree. Yes we should be pissed off about venture capitalists deciding what we pay for bikes. No we shouldn't be pissed at the little guys who scrape by. And we should both be pissed about companies large and small who misrepresent their engineering claims in the name of a money grab to unsuspecting consumers who don't know any better.
  • 2 0
 @rip8569: maybe I have taken what you have said in the wrong light, I think we are on the same page here, especially regarding misrepresenting claims for profit.
  • 4 3
 crude light $84 a barrel. LNG up 11% today.
  • 4 8
flag conoat (Oct 25, 2021 at 12:05) (Below Threshold)
 ever wonder how gas is $5/gal. when oil is $84/bbl. but when oil was $45/bbl gas was only $1.80? Lol

#thingsthatmakeyougohmmmmmm
  • 2 0
 @conoat: in the USA prices go down for the elections and then bounce back higher than the prices before the election.
  • 3 0
 @conoat: gas is its own commodity. it has reserves or lack of reserves like crude. gas isnt the only thing made from crude.
  • 1 2
 @quesoquesoqueso: gasoline and diesel production are a bit over 70% of the use of crude. so saying fuel is it's own commodity is a bit misleading. bauxite and aluminum are their own commodities too, but the alternate uses for bauxite really don't matter. lol
  • 9 11
 "Global supply chain shortages and rapid inflation are actually good for the economy" - Morons and people that don't understand fiscal/macro-economics (ie current admin)


#letsgobrandon
  • 5 4
 LETS GO BRANDON - that's why prices will go up. . .
  • 1 0
 1 reason why I won’t be buying a bike in 2022
  • 1 1
 Strange to see that they didn’t list inflation as one of the biggest reasons for price hikes
  • 1 0
 So maybe we can start manufacturing here.
  • 1 0
 #6 people will continue pay for moderately changed items.
  • 2 1
 Greed Greed Greed Greed Greed
  • 1 0
 What intern puts up a graph without labelled axis?
  • 1 0
 The bicycle industry must have some anti-trust laws!
  • 1 0
 Time to take up a different sport.
  • 1 3
 the whole world is going to crap in a hand basket carried by Biden wearing a dress while walking through the woods mumbling to himself as he gets lost and blames others
  • 1 0
 Silly
  • 3 2
 Let’s go Brandon
  • 1 0
 Humanity got robbed!
  • 3 3
 Greedy brands
  • 1 2
 Nice…..
  • 1 2
 yup.
  • 5 8
 Greed across the board greed .
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