10 Things to Watch for on Race Day - World Cup Round 3 Fort William DH

1. Who is holding their cards close to their chest?

It's hard to know what to make of the top men. Brosnan, Hart and Hill don't hang around, and all have had good results here in Fort William, but it's a big, physical track and there has always been time to win on the pedals. In the last few years we've often seen the winners hold a little back on the first split, save a little energy and then do the damage on the lower, flatter parts of the course. So the question is how much are the riders behind them holding back? Particularly Atherton and Gwin. Are they being cautious and trying to manage their exertion today to be slightly fresher tomorrow, or are we looking at the genuine pace for the weekend?


2. The return of the Chainsaw Massacre

After missing the first two races of the season with injury, it was always going to be interesting to see what Stevie Smith does this weekend. Coming in mid-season has to be tough, the rest of the field have had a couple of races to get into the rhythmn of racing this year and remember just how fast you need to ride to be competitive at the sharp end of these things. Seventh in qualifying is a solid result though. It also says a lot about the pace at the front - he is 5 seconds back from Brosnan in a field where the difference between first and 80th is just 22 seconds. Looking at the splits, he lost most of his time at the first split, then took a solid second back out of Brosnan's time on the final split. Will qualification have been enough to wake him up, or will we need to wait a race or two more to see the title-winning Stevie Smith on track this season?

3. Manon Carpenter is going to be tough to beat

In qualifications she was the class of the field by a proverbial country mile, nearly 11 seconds clear of second-placed Myriam Nicole. In Pietermaritzburg she was in a similar position, and proved she has the head to take a lead like this and turn it into the real gold that can only be won on Sunday. While we would expect the gap to close somewhat, we suspect Nicole and third-placed Ragot are wondering this evening what they have to do to beat her on this track.


4. Rachel Atherton?

Word is that Rachel Atherton has been off the bike since Cairns, taking time to recover from illness. That time off the bike was evident in qualifying and we're struggling to remember the last time anybody put 16 seconds into her. That said, race day is always a different matter and with limited fitness, holding back in qualifying is the only sensible thing to do. We'd be very surprised if we don't see her slash that gap come race day, although 16 seconds may be a bridge too far for even Rachel to close.

5. Luca Shaw and the other juniors did the US proud

If I was American race fan, I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief to see Luca Shaw fronting the junior field today. Yes, Gwin came along and made us baguette-loving Euros remember that Americans too can ride bikes very, very quickly. But there was a problem for the longer term - Gwin has always made it clear that he doesn't plan to race forever, so who was going to follow him? Having young talent like Luca emerge is where the future of US downhill racing will lie and backing up his win in PMB with solid form here in Scotland is surely the foundation of a promising career. In those junior ranks, the USA is the third most-represented country after the UK (the host nation), and the French, lying ahead of more traditional DH nations, like Australia and New Zealand. Promising signs for a country that was notably absent from the higher flights of DH racing for a long time.


6.Martin Maes is fast

Nobody who's been following the Enduro World Series will be surprised to hear that, it's why he made the jump up to the senior ranks this year, despite the fact he's still not 18. But, if you're wondering "Who the hell is this kid from Belgium that qualified second in the juniors out of nowhere?" There's your answer. His time was good enough for 32nd in the senior competition and he has admitted that he hadn't picked up a DH bike in 6 months before this week... He was fastest at the first split, but lost a second or so during the second split. Coming from enduro, he isn't scared of pedaling, so we'd be tempted to stick a few quid on him for tomorrow. It also puts into context, what has been happening in and around France for the last few year (we're including Belgium in this, as many fast Belgians race the French Enduro Series, as the mountains are bigger than their home races). Many of the young riders who we would have seen progress through to the World Cup in the past are choosing to race enduro instead, and have been for a few years now. While Bruni and Vergier are flying the flag of the young, fast Frenchies in the DH, it's not the wave after wave we once saw, and this is your answer as to why that has changed. What hasn't changed is how fast those kids are. The interesting question in the future is going to be what Atherton Racing ask of Maes when they get their heads around just how strong he is in both disciplines?

7. Don't forget Minnaar. Ever.

Minnaar is celebrating his 100th world cup this weekend, but, according to Gary Perkins Instagram feed, that doesn't mean fate was on his side today. He tore a tyre, yet still managed to haul his bike up into 12th position. He isn't a man to shy away from a big race, and that anniversary might be just the thing to draw his focus to this weekend, so we're certainly not going to bet against him turning his 100th outing at this level into a DH fairytale with the win.

8. Mike Jones seems to be making the step to the senior ranks rather well

Amidist the headlines, it's worth noting that CRC's Mike Jones took 10th today in his first season racing in seniors. While it usually takes a couple of years for racers to build the strength and fitness to be out front in the senior ranks, the ones who do it well show pace from the outset, which is exactly what Jones seems to have done today. It's early days yet, there's a long way for him to go, but we'd reckon CRC team manager, Nigel Page, is telling a few people "I told you so" this evening.


9. What happened to Bryceland and Dale on track?

Not being in Fort William, we can't nip over to the pits and ask what happened, but we are curious as to why those two are going to be the first two off the start ramp tomorrow. What catches our interest is that it's not just any two riders together at the top of the start list tomorrow, but two British riders who ride, drink and drift together a lot. Are they gambling on the weather closing in as the afternoon goes on? Will the wind get up? Or is it just plain bad luck and coincidence?

10. No Needles tomorrow

Splitting Bryceland and Dale at the back of the timing sheet is Andrew Neethling. Unfortunately for him, while the other two are protected riders, he is sitting in 24th in the series after the first two races of the year, so we're not going to see him on track on race day.