That kind of flaking happened on one side of a Specialized of mine, false alarm, but on the other side, crack. The fact that the little trail of rust continues into the bead makes me think crack. Based on my e-degree in engineering and metallurgy.
My bike has so many areas like that, and I still put it through hell. Ride it til you are face down in the dirt holding your handlebars and watching the rear half of the bike tumble down the hill in front of you. Then you will know the severity of alleged "crack".
I wouldn't worry about it unless the crack is along the weld. There is no connection between the metals where the crack is now. It's just in the paint...
But yeah, my thoughts too. Its a common problem, just not usually this quick haha