Nerding Out: Ranking the 2024 DH World Cup Team Changes
With the teams set for the 2024 season and World Cup racing under a week away, we have done the math and calculated our own ratings for this year's downhill race teams. After being inspired by Spencer Martin's BTP NET Ratings of Pro Cycling teams over on Velo we have made some of our own projections for the 2024 World Cup downhill teams. Check out which team rates the highest below.
How Did We Rate the Teams?
While there is no clear and scientific way to evaluate untested teams who have yet to go properly against the clock at World Cups in 2024, we have followed a similar method as the BTP NET Ratings from Spencer Martin's Velo Article allowing us to rank this year's race teams based on how they would have performed if their 2024 rider rosters were on the team in the previous season.
To build the rankings we totalled the overall World Cup season points for each rider on a team's roster for 2023 and then again after adjusting the team's using the latest UCI team list. The system allows us to create projections on how many points are lost or gained after team transfers based on performances in 2023. While this is purely speculation and just a bit of fun before the season kicks off next week, downhill racing can produce unexpected results, so ranking off a past season's results isn't the most accurate. Not many riders can consistently produce the same results year after year.
One of the most exciting parts of downhill racing is that anything can happen on finals day and while this doesn't account for what is yet to happen in 2024, it offers a good baseline and shows where some teams may have lost or gained some talent in the offseason.
2024 DH World Cup Team Rankings
After totalling the points after this year's team changes its Specialized Gravity topping the rankings despite not adjusting its roster in 2024. The Specialized team of Loic Bruni, Finn Iles and Jordan Williams were a formidable force in last year's elite men's racing with all three riders a constant threat for a race victory. The team hold a small lead in the rankings before the 2nd-placed Dorval AM Commencal team featuring the likes of Camille Balanche, Benoit Coulanges and more. The stacked lineup of riders contributed to the total of 3,881 points with the team ranking second behind the YT Mob in the elite women's rankings. Sitting in third was the refreshed Scott Downhill factory team that with some new faces joining the team in 2024 has leapt up to third place in our team rankings. The Syndicate were the highest-ranked team in 2023 but after Greg Minnaar left the team and Jackson Goldstone's injury it dropped to fifth place.
Top 10 Ranked Teams:
1: Specialized Gravity: 3930
2: Dorval AM Commencal: 3881
3: Scott Downhill Factory: 3525
4: YT Mob: 3345
5: Santa Cruz Syndicate: 3169
6: Canyon CLLCTV Factory Team: 2727
7: Continental Atherton: 2520
8: Mondraker Factory Racing: 2280
9: Trek Factory Racing Gravity: 2204
10: Pivot Factory Racing: 1839
2023 to 2024 Ranking Change
Alongside creating a 2024 ranking of the team we also compiled how the teams would have stacked up based on the 2023 team rosters and then compared this to the rankings after the team changes. On the positive side of the list, the latest version of Neko Mulally's Frameworks team made huge gains with its new signings jumping 26 places from 56th to 30th on this year's rankings. The big gain came from Angel Suarez's 312 series points gained last year, with Neko, Angel and Asa Vermette (once he is back from injury) the team could go even higher once racing kicks off. The next largest ranking increase came from the YT Mob who signed current World Champ and 2023 World Cup overall winner Vali Höll to its downhill squad adding a huge 2422 points to its tally. Just Höll's points alone are enough to rank her 10th out of all the combined team totals. With the addition of Höll alongside Sian A'Hern and Oisin O'Callgahn the three-strong team jumped from 21st to fourth in the overall team rankings. The only other team to achieve a double-figure rank increase was the Unior-Sinter Factory Racing team as its addition of ex-Pinkbike Racing's Aimi Kenyon added to 190 points improving its ranking from 47th to 33rd.
The 5 Greatest Positive Ranking Changes:
1: Frameworks Racing: +26
2: YT Mob: +17
3: Unior-Sinter Factory Racing: +14
4: Triple Five Racing: +8
5: Canyon CLLCTV Pirelli: +6
5: Propain Positive: +6
Looking at teams that dropped in ranking after the 2024 team changes the revamped Intense Factory Team saw the largest difference with a fall from 15th to 29th. While the team did keep its name and Joe Breeden the setup is markedly different for 2024 with new management and some fast new riders signed up. While she may have only added 167 points to the total (based on her 2023 performance) Louise Ferguson is coming into the season with the potential for a great season where she could create some big gains for the team. Another team that saw some big changes since 2023 is Commencal/Muc-Off who lost several riders over the off-season after a 2023 season plagued by injuries. While the team fell from 17th to 28th in the rankings with hopefully Amaury Pierron and Myriam Nicole returning to the World Cups this season they could add some high point totals to their collection drastically improving its rank. Also, the off-season additions of Dylan Maples and the Alran brothers could see some healthy point totals this season.
The 5 Greatest Negative Ranking Changes:
1: Intense Factory Racing: -14
2: Commencal/Muc-Off by Riding Addiction: -11
2: Gen-S: -11
3: Kenda NS Bikes UR Team: -8
3: The Alliance: -8
2023 to 2024 Ranking Points Gained/Lost
Diving deeper into the individual points gained and lost after the 2024 team moves the biggest point gain came from the YT as its signing of Vali Höll scooped up a huge 2,422 points. The 2023 World Champ and overall series winner finally found consistent form in 2023 as she was dominant throughout most of the year always within sight of the top podium position. If she can repeat this in 2024 the YT Mob will be a hard team to beat especially if Sian A'Hern and Oisin O'Callaghan continue to see the strong results they started to achieve in the second half of 2023. The next largest point gain after the team rumour season was for the Scott Downhill Factory team which made some noticeable changes to its roster for 2024 including the signing of Ethan Craik who placed 2nd at the final round in Mont-Sainte-Anne. Greg Minnaar joining the Norco team helped achieve the third-largest points increase as one of the biggest moves of the off-season saw Norco gain 480 points rising from 18th to 13th in the overall ranking list.
The 5 Biggest 2024 Ranking Point Gains
1: YT Mob: +2422
2: Scott Downhill Factory: +736
3: Norco Factory Racing: +480
4: Frameworks Racing: +312
5: Commencal/Schwalbe: +247
Crossing over to the teams who lost ranking points ahead of the World Cup kicking off in 2024 the top of the list is the Santa Cruz Syndicate. While the shift of Greg Minnaar to Norco cost the team 774 points, Jackson Goldstone's injury from Red Bull Hardline took him off the roster for now which removed the most points. With 1,616 points being taken away from the squad it fell from maintaining the top position to now ranking fifth. As mentioned previously the changes at the Intense Factory team and Commencal/Muc-Off made some noticeable roster changes marking them the second and third in the list of largest point losses.
The 5 Biggest 2024 Ranking Point Decreases
1: Santa Cruz Syndicate: -2025
2: Intense Factory Racing: -971
3: Commencal/Muc-Off by Riding Addiction: -717
4: Continental GT Racing: -521
5: Union - Forged by Steel City Media: -468
Quick Takeaways
The Syndicate were the team to beat before Jackson's Injury
After his incredible first season of elite racing in 2203 it's sad to see that after his Hardline crash, Jackson Goldstone appears to be sitting out racing in 2024. With Goldstone injured, it's good to see the Syndicate making the most of the ability to swap out injured riders as it signed up the young talent of Ollie Davis to join its ranks in 2024. With Goldstone no longer listed as part of the team for now (he will be back once recovered) the team fell from being the number one ranked squad with a lead of 490 points over Specialized Gravity to fifth in the rankings after losing Goldstone's 1,616 points from 2023. With the signing of Davis, it did pick up a further 365 points and if he can be consistent with some of the speed he was finding last year, could be a real contender for some top results alongside teammates Laurie Greenland and Nina Hoffmann.
Mondraker Factory Racing is the highest-ranked new 2024 team
Amongst a selection of brand new teams joining the action in 2024, the new Mondraker Factory team of Dakotah Norton, Ronan Dunne and Ryan Pinkerton is the highest new ranking as it comes straight into 8th place just behind the Continental Atherton team by 240 points. The fresh team signed three big talents, all of whom, head into the 2024 season with huge potential for big results make the Mondraker team a wild card for becoming one of the best if all goes well in 2024. No other new 2024 team was able to make it into the top 20 with some notable new entries such as Gwin Racing and Zerode Racing placing 43rd and 46th respectively.
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My daughter (and hundreds of thousands of other daughters out there) gets genuinely stoked to see great female athletes and the fact of the matter is that the factory teams get the most exposure and eyeballs. Gen S is great and all, but it's not the same as one of the premier factory teams having a kick-ass female ripper on the roster. It's why she loves the Syndicate and follows them (and not just Nina).
It’s a huge story and the lack of reporting on it is troubling. @pinkbike should remove their news tab until they publish something on it. He’s still out there—the guy was 5th at that DH Cup in Portugal: shove a mic in his face! Maybe risk losing an invite to the next springy steering straightener product launch by asking Canyon Factory Racing what they look for in a team rider.
The lack of independent news media in MTB really sticks out with something like this. Silence is deafening across the board, really.
Daprela is a mesmerizing rider who can win any race he lines up for, please tell us why he’s not on a team. Two teams!
Oh but here’s a new flat pedal check this out