Fantasy Form Guide presented by Five Ten As riders are checking out the
fresh new course in Poland for this weekend's racing, we have taken a look through the data to give our best guess of who might be the ones to watch at the second round of the 2024 Downhill World Cup series. Before the riders practice the course, here are our thoughts on who could be in the running for a top result in finals.
Who Was Fast In Fort William?
After an off-season full of team moves, rumours and even some actual racing, the opening round of the 2024 World Cup series in Fort William was the first real chance for riders to test themselves against their peers and see if all the training had paid off.
In the elite women's category, pre-race favourite Vali Höll took the win, but Tahnee Seagrave came out fighting as she secured the top qualifying spot, a second in qualifying and third in finals. Nina Hoffmann has also started the season in strong form as she was on pace to win in finals before a final push from Höll saw her take the lead at the bottom of the brutal Fort William track to win by 0.561 seconds.
Loic Bruni was the man to beat for the elite men as he won both qualifying and finals while only giving up two places and 0.071 seconds to Troy Brosnan and Finn Iles in the semi-finals. After great results in Fort William, Brosnan is back at the sharp end of racing and seems to be enjoying the slight change in format as he never dropped outside the top four in Scotland. While his teammate may have taken the race-winning glory, Finn Iles' performance saw him take two second places and a third across the weekend and he will be on the hunt for the top step in Poland.
Elite Women
1st. Vali Höll: 4:41.424
2nd. Nina Hoffmann: 4:41.985 /
+0.5613rd. Tahnee Seagrave: 4:43.255 /
+1.8314th. Camille Balanche: 4:45.381 /
+3.9575th. Gloria Scarsi: 4:48.651 /
+7.227
Elite Men
1st. Loic Bruni: 4:04.264
2nd. Troy Brosnan: 4:06.104 /
+1.8403rd. Finn Iles: 4:06.253 /
+1.9894th. Dakotah Norton: 4:07.353 /
+3.0895th. Luca Shaw: 4:07.943 /
+3.679Full elite results,
here.
Looking closer at each track sector across the race weekend in Fort William, the race winners were unmatched with Vali Höll and Loic Bruni topping the ranks. Höll left round one with seven out of 15 winning sector times while Loic Bruni had five. Tahnee Seagrave sits third in the rankings as she was fastest through four sectors. Although not making it into the top three riders at round one, it's worth watching Camille Balanche and Benoit Coulanges as they were fastest through two and three sectors respectively.
Who Was Consistently Making Finals in 2023?
With our new point Fantasy League point structure for 2024, you can either go all out and try to pick a race winner or field a team full of less expensive riders who have the chance of scoring big points. After the first round of fantasy results and having crunched the numbers behind the scenes, a potential winning strategy could be trying to find riders who can consistently make it to finals and score points. Looking back at the 2023 season only four women and nine men raced every finals across the season. Of these riders, all but Jackson Goldstone, who is injured, and Dylan Levesque made it to finals in Fort William.
Elite Women
Vali Höll (Fantasy Price: $1 Million)
Nina Hoffmann (Fantasy Price: $1 Million)
Marine Cabirou (Fantasy Price: $682,500)
Monika Hrastnik (Fantasy Price: $588,000)
Elite Men
Loris Vergier (Fantasy Price: $990,367)
Loic Bruni (Fantasy Price: $1,000,000)
Jackson Goldstone (Fantasy Price: $666,000)
Troy Brosnan (Fantasy Price: $1,000,000)
Andreas Kolb (Fantasy Price: $938,383)
Bernard Kerr (Fantasy Price: $802,667)
Luca Shaw (Fantasy Price: $964,700)
Dylan Levesque (Fantasy Price: $276,000)
Ronan Dunne (Fantasy Price: $801,067)
Elite Women's Picks
Vali HöllAfter her near-dominant first round of racing in Fort William, Vali Höll is our top pick for this weekend. Höll has shown she intends to carry on in 2024 as she ended her incredibly successful 2023 season and we think she could secure another victory in Poland.
Nina HoffmannNina Hoffmann came so close to victory in Fort William proving her off-season training has brought her in touch with the 2023 World Champ and World Cup series winner. While she may not have won she will carry a lot of confidence into the fresh course built for round two.
Tahnee SeagraveOur final main pick for the elite women's racing is Tahnee Seagrave who rivaled Vali Höll through qualifying and semi-finals before ending the weekend in third place. After tasting victory with a top qualifying time at round one, Seagrave will be after more in Poland.
Elite Men's Picks
Loic BruniAfter finally winning in Fort William, Loic Bruni has shown he is coming into 2024 with big intentions as he is defending the 2023 overall title and hungry for another rainbow jersey. Bruni just missed out on a perfect weekend by 0.071 seconds in Fort William showing that even on a track he has previously struggled with, he has the speed to win.
Benoit CoulangesBenoit Coulanges may not have made a big splash at the opening round, but after taking sixth place in finals he was the only elite male rider other than Loic Bruni to secure more than one fastest sector time. Coulanges has shown he can go fastest through individual sectors, but he will want to tie it together across a full race run this weekend to back up his 2023 win in Les Gets.
Dakotah NortonA new team and bike didn't slow Dakotah Norton down in Fort William as he started the year off with a fourth place in finals. After a string of first-place results leading into the World Cup series Norton has the speed to win and the course in Poland might just be the one where he can make it onto the top step of the podium.
Wildcard Picks
While we have made our main predictions for potential winners above, there were other riders we need to mention as potential top performers for the first round this weekend.
Charlie HattonThe current World Champ had a tough time in Fort William and as he didn't make finals, he will be pushing even harder this weekend to recover his losses from round one.
Camille BalancheCamille Balanche was another rider who was fast through individual sectors, but just couldn't quite create a full race-winning run at round one. Balanche will have been happy with fourth at round one after a big crash last year, but with signs she has winning speed, we may see a top-three-worthy run for finals.
Who Do You Think Will Win?
We shared our thoughts and picks for this weekend, but who do you think will be going for the top of the podium?
Fantasy League Stats
After one round of racing and the first dynamic rider price change this season we have compiled some stats ahead of the team editing window closing before qualifying on Saturday.
Pinkbike Fantasy Downhill League in Association with Five Ten NO PURCHASE NECESSARY. Purchase will not increase your chances of winning. The Contest begins on 18 March 2024 at 09:00:01 a.m. PDT and ends on October 6, 2024 at 11:59 PM PDT. Anyone can participate in the Pinkbike Fantasy Downhill League Game but the The Pinkbike Fantasy Downhill League Contest whereby participants can win prizes (“Contest”) is open only to legal residents of Australia, Canada (except the Province of Québec), Germany, United Kingdom, and 50 United States and DC who are 18 years of age or older and the age of majority in theirjurisdiction of residence. The Contest begins on 18 March 2024 at 09:00:01 a.m. PDT and ends on 6 October 2024 at 11:59:59 PM PDT. *5,000 USD cash portion of the grand prize will be awarded in a form of a check if the winner is from US or Canada; and will be awarded as a bank wire transfer if the winner is from Australia, Germany or UK.
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Finn Iles $1,000,000 28
Troy Brosnan $1,000,000 29
Dakotah Norton $1,000,000 27
Loic Bruni $1,000,000 30
Loris Vergier $990,367 23
Benoit Coulanges $984,400 25
Luca Shaw $964,700 26
Andreas Kolb $938,383 22
Bernard Kerr $802,667 17
Ronan Dunne $801,067 20
Jordan Williams $754,333 19
Matt Walker $746,267 21
I proposed an immediate bump to $2m with consideration for raising it even more later on. $2m allows you to have at least 1 top end athlete and a few top 20's.
Reality is... we all have to deal with the same rules so the winner is the person that picks the best performing mid pack athletes.