Mountain bikes aren't going to get any cheaper. That's not how the world works. If you don't believe me, look at car prices. When it was released in 1961 a Jaguar E-Type would have cost you £2,098. Its modern equivalent is the F-Type, and the entry level version will set you back a cool £58,000. Yes, you can argue that you get a lot more car today, but the plain truth is that inflation is one of the constants of the modern world. And this means that things are only going to cost more in the future. Raw material prices are going to keep rising, fuel prices are going to keep rising (those bikes have to be transported from you to the factory) and the wages for the people who make the bikes are going to have to rise so they too can afford to keep up with that inflation. If you look at the historical pricing of virtually any commodity or service in our world, you will see this trend.
Taking this as given, the question we would hope bike companies are asking themselves is: "How can we make our customers feel more comfortable with what we are asking them to pay for our bikes?" I have a suggestion - how about ditching model years?
An ultra high-end bike, circa 1991
Twenty years ago mountain bikes were relatively simple creatures, and their price tags were relatively modest to reflect this. In the intervening years they have evolved exponentially and there is a strong argument that today's bikes, while they are undoubtedly more expensive, offer much more value than their simpler predecessors. They last longer, weigh a lot less and allow you to do a lot more. Yet where once a top-end bike might have been $2,000, today they can be $10,000 (let's not get into the inflationary maths here about the relative values). While not everyone will be comfortable accepting a $2,000 bike going out of date within twelve months of buying it, it's a different matter to having that happen to one costing something like five times as much.
Going back to the analogy of the auto industry - they tend to work on a seven-year life cycle for cars. While your car is current, the re-sale value remains good and people can work that into part of the sums to justify buying the car. Maybe seven years is too long for a bicycle, if for no other reason than because the development rate has been much more rapid. Today, most people wouldn't choose to ride a seven year old bike because the current generation of bikes are so much better, where a seven year old car is still fairly current. But what about three years? If we're honest, those bikes from twenty years ago may not have survived this long, but today, if you buy a bicycle from one of the major manufacturers, it's a fairly safe bet that if you look after it, it will still be running nicely.
An ultra high-end bike, circa 2013
It is worth noting that some companies have already stepped away from at least some of the yearly cycle. Shimano tend to keep their groupsets consistent for multiple years, SRAM seem to have followed suit in recent years. Many smaller brands already do this - one of the reason Santa Cruz owners often say they like buying from the brand is that their bikes don't go out of date so quickly, and that they hold their resale value well. Expecting the whole industry to line up with each other for their release schedules is never going to happen for a myriad of reasons. It also makes sense that manufacturers are naturally going to want to update the component specs if something new comes along that they feel will offer riders a better experience on the bike, what we are talking about here would be keeping a frame design (and its colour scheme) consistent. Maybe this would help people feel they are getting better value for the price they are paying for their new bicycle.
So with bike prices set to rise further in the coming years, do you think it's time bicycle manufacturers took a long hard look at model years?
To the point of the article this problem is exacerbated by short life cycles. If a manufacturer could spread the development costs over three years rather than a single year you would probably see costs fall. To be fair I think many frame builders already do this; they use existing geometry and model lines with only minimal changes for what is essentially late production run optimization.
And the manufacturing tech has improved a lot. That's why owning a CF bike frame is even possible. Doesn't mean its cheap, its just cheap enough. Go look at the cost of carbon fiber cloth and how much you would need for a frame. Go from there.
As far as bikes go, I'd like to see model years go away, and have more focus on the model. I don't know if that would benefit companies, but for consumers it would increase product satisfaction and help retain resale values. Once the market gets saturated with a particular model, then introduce something new.
There should be product turns for bikes every couple seasons, but how, and who would/ could regulate it?
However you can with bikes. Just read most of the posts from anyone old enough to have had more than one generation of bike or go to their "man-cave" and check out the boxes and boxes of rear-mechs, rims, hubs etc etc. There is no product cycle. There are only products that last and those that don't and we as consumers take it hard when someone in the industry takes our ability to re-use out parts away: as the furore over 26inch wheels betrays as does any other introduction of a new standard.
worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?CC=GB&NR=2434565&KC=&FT=E&locale=en_EP
Btw I still ride a 2006 Rocky Mountain Slayer (with 2013 Crossmax SX wheels, 2x10 XO groupset and dropper seatpost).
Retail prices that are fixed or mostly fixed, ie iPad or WRX, are more expensive in countries that are foreign to the manufacturer, or primary market, for good reason. You have to realize that Apple sets the price at £400 and it remains at that price for the entire product life cycle. Exchange rates however are not fixed during that time. Apple has to sell their products at a premium because of the risk they are taking that exchange rates will change unfavorably. They can and do protect themselves through hedging or purchasing a fixed exchange rate in a futures market, but the premium they pay to lock in this exchange rate all but eliminates any profit you think they are making by selling their products at a higher than current exchange rate price. It's economics. Probably not at the 101 level though...
To comment on the point of the article though... I think it could be beneficial for retailers and consumers alike for product life cycles to extend into more than one year. As the owner of a bicycle and snowboard shop I have already seen several companies begin this practice. The Session 8 is a perfect example, go ahead and take a look at the 2013 and 2014 models. Identical. Burton Snowboards has also already begun to do this with their lower end boots and bindings like the Invader boot and Freestyle binding, 2015 and 2016 models are slated to remain the same. Retailers are able to maintain higher retail prices and consumers who purchase those products don't experience such rapid depreciation. Seems like a win-win to me.
I think they should not. Should be some version number (like Fooduro V3 etc..), but not the year. How quickly they iterate through the version, depends.
Components are one thing, but some parts are frame particular and change when new models are introduced.
Basically companies operate on two principles planned obsolescence and perceived obsolescence.
Perceived obsolescence = Year to year, companies change the paint job or a slightly different head angle, etc. The perception is my bike is no longer cool because it is not the newest model despite being very similar. Fortunately, you can take your bike apart and move all the components to a new frame and it will be cooler.
Planned obsolescence = Every 3-5 years, companies completely change their product lines. This is to prevent people from using old parts with the new technology forcing them to get the newest gear.
RockShox Boxxers from 2005-2008 had 32mm stanchions. They did change some things over that time: the dampener, rebound and logo design as perceived obsolescence, but the parts were interchangeable. In 2009, the stanchions became 35mm. This means one cannot use the internal parts from a 2008 Boxxer on a new 2013 stanchions and lowers bought online. You must buy the whole new 2013 Boxxer fork.
What I see is perceived obsolescence from year to year which I could care less about, and planned obsolescence every 3-5 years. There will always be people out there who want the newest gear and are willing to pay for it. These people help keep the companies going by being the Innovators/Early Adopters paying those high bike, laptop, iPhone prices. Meanwhile, the rest of the market, the majority and the laggards, will buy the products when they are more affordable and don't care if it is the newest stuff. These people will eventually be dragged into the new product lines through planned obsolescence.
www.altastreet.com/sites/all/files/asxhost/20110714211709!DiffusionOfInnovation.png
Who came up with this poll anyways? A manufacturer?
I've been into MTB long enough to see that even from very early on it was "fashion" to have "This seasons" bike, often the only thing that changes is the graphics. Combine marketing with guys inherent fascination with collecting, upgrading, going faster , and year models make good business sense.
The manufacturers are never going to change to a 3 year cycle or whatever..... The yearly bike shows would be Shite for a start, and Pinkbike would have no new bikes to review !
As for older bikes not lasting as long..... Bollox, how many 90's bikes are still going? And how many modern carbon or alu frames will still be ridden in 20 years time huh?
And bike weights have gone up in the main, not down, can't think of all that many modern bikes that are sub-25lbs......
Today's MTB's do allow you to go to more places, and go faster, but at what cost? 1). Longevity. 2) Weight. 3) Price.
Buying a bike based on the Brand or looks is kind of missing the whole point.
I think the trend is in the technology, if a new design or drastic change takes place it motivates people to buy a new bike. However, a fast rider on an old bike will still out ride a beginner on a new and more advanced bike. I think it really comes down to whether or not the latest technology offers the rider enough to warrant the cost and upgrade.
That being said, similar to cars...you cannot always be current, you have to be wise and pick something you will be happy with over the period of time you plan on keeping the car. (just my view)
Take the Yeti 575 as example. From 2010 to 2011, Yeti pulled out the wheelbase slightly and changed the rear triangle to all aluminum instead of carbon AND aluminium. The reason for pulling out the wheelbase is that there was more demand for longer wheelbase bikes. Because of the way the geometry of suspension works, they couldn't just slap on a new rear triangle- and nor can you should you break your 2010 carbon one (or want the Yeti Switch tech from the 2011 model). They had to revise the rear triangle, control arm, AND the front triangle. The bike still looked almost exactly the same, only it had a longer wheelbase- but it doesn't share a single part (except for bearings and stuff) with the model a year before.
It's also a really unfair comparison to not take inflation into account- Especially when at the beginning you claimed that, "inflation is one of the constants of the modern world." A lot can happen in 20 years- not to mention the fact that, when it comes to mountain bikes, at that time they were a TINY niche market, and there wasn't NEARLY as much technology going on in them. It's not like the car industry that's been around for 100 years- mountain biking is still a baby, industry wise.
TL: DR everything after the first paragraph of this article is kind of useless. Sorry if that seemed harsh.
I think at the end of the day it's just semantics... I think we as riders should focus on our RIDING rather than what's the latest-and-greatest in the world of MTB-tech...
Now, I'm like, really unfashionable running 26" still but, I love riding the bike.
It is however, quite interesting seeing the developments coming through, how they affect the new bikes and improve performance...or not.
Then in 3, 4, 5, 6 years when I decide I fancy a change, there's all that development that's been tried and tested to tempt me!
We want this, it creates a rapid evolution, and it's the reason that in my short lifetime we've gone from triple triangle 80mm HT's to 150mm FS rigs that ascend just as well, weigh nearly the same, and can take an order of magnitude more abuse.
Even in cars, the multi-year cycle doesn't apply. Year by year, small improvements are made. Heck, it's pretty common for changes to happen mid-year (off the top of my head, 1967.5 mustangs are an example). The model year means when that version was put into production, not when it was designed, and it usually disregards any incremental changes (like a fix for a recalled part).
At the end of the day, bikes follow a similar cycle to cars and electronics-big changes every 5-10 years, incremental changes incessantly. It is what it is.
Innovation continues, and if the sucker who bought a bike two years ago can't ride his bike anymore simply because it's two years old, then let him spend another $10k on the brand new year model. I imagine the guy who put that bike together at the factory could use the paycheck.
It's not as if every model is changing a lot every year anyway. Rather than ditch model years, I'd rather see more of us as customers reject the prevailing notion that every year every bike (and every part) performs drastically better than last year's version. Bikes are reaching a point of subtle improvement; a tweak here, a new idea there. They've also grown so durable and well performing that the industry constantly pushes changes to motivate people to buy new bikes. For the average rider, many of these changes don't make much of a difference. Some changes are just trends that could reverse direction in a few years. (I wouldn't be surprised if one day in the future someone is raving about the unique gains of a shorter top tube, smaller wheel, or narrower handlebar.) We can ride the same bike for a few years, perhaps update parts here and there, save some money and not miss out on any huge performance advantages. And my guess is that this is how most pinkbikers work anyway. You should do a poll asking how long we keep our bikes.
It also helps feed the large used bike/parts market where there are massive bargins to be had.
As for the auto industry reference, an auto may be current for 6 or 7 years, but it is a lot bigger piece of machinery and engineering that takes a lot more time to test properly, and an auto has a ton more standards it has to conform to before it can be released so it will be current for longer.
Version #'s, model years, nearly the same thing, you can only hope that manufacturers can find ways to bring their cost down, which would lead to lower cost for the consumer. Sometimes it happens, but more often than not, even if the manufacturer finds cheaper ways, they'll pocket that savings, not pass it on to us!
Do you also think that a bikes warranty shows confidence in their longevity? I like the fact that my frame is lifetime, I know some companies offer limited time periods, and for a lot of folks it is a factor in buying from the start.
Today you buy a new one, and sell the parts off for cheap, or keep them as "spares", just to throw them away ten years later.
This, plus the fact that five years down the line, most "standards" for mounting parts onto frames have changed - wheel size, axle diameter, brake mounting, steerer diameter, bar clamp diameter, seat post diameters, BB fitting... And most of the new stuff doesn't even make a difference.
Getting rid of these artificial pressures of getting rid of current model year bikes will help LBS's in general. Customers will enjoy more consistent and fair pricing, and the stores will enjoy the profit margins they project.
But the off the shelf bikes are always going too, it's what makes that 'old', but perfectly functioning 2011 bike seem old fashioned and decidedly unbling - even if the new model is just the same in a different colour, or has a tiny spec change.
The tapered head-tubes and other bullshit fake innovation is just so the bigger companies can try to keep control of the market.
If mountain bikes were purely utility vehicles, you'd be right and there'd be no advantage in having a better bike to ride from A to B. But they're not, they're the gateway to our hobby: bigger climbs, steeper descents and enjoying it in all conditions.
Apart from this the vast majority rides no more than 2 - 3 times a week, optimistically. We have to live and earn for biking as well. Season lasts, lets assume, 8 months, so there are no more than 8x4x3=96 opportunities / a year for riding. Average riding lasts 2 hours lets assume so it's no more than 200hours of using a brand new bike to buy newer the next year. It's sounds ridiculous but it's true. We buy bikes to be best. The materials, the technology. All this and that for 200hours of riding? Clever hint is to buy a second hand one. Is this what we all want?
200 hours isn't even enough to learn the equipment. Bike has to become part of body to be used well. The process lasts. In my opinion at least two seasons.
I think you will find that there is a trend that people who spend more money on their bike are likely to spend more time riding it.
My girlfriend has no problem with me spending 6k on a new bike every 2 years or so as she knows that I get my full moneys worth of use from it cause I ride often and hard as I can.
On a related note, I paid 2k for my car 4 years ago and have no intention of upgrading till it dies. To me, image does not enter the equation.
Pricing is my only issue. Here's my example, Ktm dropped the price of the 2014 690 Super Duke by $1900, roughly 20% compared to the 2009 model and the 2014 offers more power, better gas mileage and revised parts and is still $1000 cheaper than an S-Works Enduro. KTM did R&D on the 690 motor, frame, swingarm and electronics, even had traction control added!! That's the part that is so hard for me to grasp, moto's have gone slightly up in price, about 20% in 10 years (Duke not figured in), full suspension mtb's have gone up 80% in 10 years, like the specialized Enduro Comp. Even if I just received an inflation raise over the 10 years at my job, it would only be 25%. May pay has only increased 35% in 10 years. Decent complete bikes have been out of my reach for about 3 years, that's why I kinda want 26 to last...
staggering new model years is the same as thwarting innovation, if your thwarting innovation then you are being counterproductive to the development of the mountain bike
I ride a 17 year old bike and a 7 year old bike, both Santa cruzes, and they are as awesome now as they were brand new and I doubt a 2014 bike would contain enough added awesomeness to make me part with £2000+
I agree with comments made that if parts weren't on a yearly cycle then you wouldn't be so easily able to get cheaper year old replacements, such as my year old slx brakes. which are awesome by the way!
And people who tell me 'I can get a car for that!', so what?! You can buy a mobile phone for the price of a coffee, a car for the price of a house, a painting for the price of a football team, etc. And they're normally the sort of tight wads who won't splash out on anything and if they ever do, it'll be 'oh so justified', not like your 'overpriced bikes'.
Summing up, be aware of people who want to tell you that you spent TOO much of YOUR money on what YOU wanted. And then explain to them that they could've bought a cheaper watch, top, hat, phone, wallet, car, house, bike, etc. But they didn't??!
It's like Matt said when he was taking the piss....
" I'm fast, way faster than you! My bike is clean and my gear's brand new!"
Don't let yourself become a part of the crowd that the rest of us make fun of just because the industry has managed to convince you that you NEED the latest 2014 product in order to have fun on your bike !! Go back and re-watch 3 minute gaps. That gear's way old in MTB terms now.....but.....would you say they're having a measurable amount of less fun on those "old" 2009 bikes???
On another note, my 11 year old Giant DH Team is still rollin strong!
I have a 2013 Tallboy LTC in yellow.
No way do I want a 2014 or 15 in blue. Yellow is way better.
Just because the sticker price of bikes increases over time does NOT mean it is more expensive. Whether something is more expensive or not also depends on how much wages go up over time.
Don't believe me? The following NPR article explains that the REAL price of commodities often decrease over time.
www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/01/08/260761433/episode-508-a-bet-on-the-future-of-humanity
Lets here your best explanation of why an increase in nominal prices always means stuff is more expensive in real terms.
The NPR article is not proof that I understand econ it is a direct and easily accessible piece of evidence against your claim that commodity prices always increase over long period of time.
Don't attack me (you have no idea what my credentials are) attack my argument.
stuffchristhinksabout.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/stop-pushing-sales-and-build-brand-equity
so then there is no problem right . Matt ?