| I think it’s as hard to get in the top ten now as it was to get on the podium when I first started racing. |
A World Cup top ten rider said this to me off the cuff in an interview, and it makes sense. As the sport develops, the number of people racing increases, the talent pool widens and the top riders in the world should be closer in ability.
More than that, technology is also plateauing, fitness is increasing across the board and the rotating carousel of tracks are so well known it becomes harder to eke out advantages each year.
We now see far fewer outliers when it comes to winning times; the days of Sam Hill or Aaron Gwin putting 5+ seconds into the field are pretty much over. In fact, since 2015 there have been four races closer than the Beijing Olympics’ 100 meter sprint men’s final.
But just how close has it become? I set about gathering the numbers and testing the theory out. I started out simply working out what percentage of the winner’s race time you needed to be within to get in the top ten and the top five over the past 12 years of racing
In around 2008, being within three percent of the winner at a race on average would get you on the podium, now that just about gets you into the top ten.
So the racer was right? Maybe… but also maybe not.
There are so many variables in downhill racing that it makes such a simple comparison a bit useless. It was at this point I spoke to the World Cup’s resident statistician,
Eliot Jackson, who jumped on board with the project and offered this to think about:
“Is percentage is the best metric to use? Let's take a 1:00 piece of track - if that's true, then being three seconds back at the top of Fort William is the same as being three seconds back on the second sector of Val di Sole. This year the former would put you in 42nd and the latter would put you in 17th. Percentage doesn't take into account the difficulty of the track.
“If Windham is in one year that will skew times much tighter on a percentage basis than say a track like Val di Sole. Lourdes is insanely fast in the dry and unrideable in the wet, i.e. really close times and really not close times.”
So we decided to dig deeper.
Where can we fairly compare racers through the last few years of racing? What piece of race track is the same length every year, with the same features and is unaffected by the weather? The best answer we could come up with was the top section of Fort William.
It’s a section of track that lasts roughly one minute every year going from the start gate down to around the first rock garden. Rain doesn’t have a massive impact on this section of the track and, in fact, riders often say it rides better in the wet as it improves traction over the marbley surface. The start hut has been moved backwards a bit over the years, but for our money it was probably the closest we were going to get.
So what happens if we do the same test there?
Well, it's not the result we were expecting, that’s for sure. While the top ten results show a rough correlation towards being tighter, the top five results show the opposite and suggest it’s getting easier to be in the top five in this sector.
It’s interesting that most World Cup results sheets show the same pattern. A large clump of riders in the middle with outliers on either side. At the back of the race, riders drop off due to punctures, crashes, etc, and at the top, well, the level is just that much higher. This probably explains why those guys can command the big bucks.
Eliot graphed this for every World Cup round since 2000 and explains: "Each little line represents a race, with the y-axis being time. Just by looking at the graph a conclusion that one could make is that racers are getting faster, but to me, on a macro scale, this graph shows how the variance between tracks throughout the year has gone down and how tracks, on the whole, have gotten a tiny bit faster. The thing to look at here is the slope, or how steep, each of those little lines is. The steeper they are, the more time in between each racer. The flatter they are, the closer that race was. Just from a glance, they definitely seem to be getting a bit flatter, but one thing to note about that is that a lot of races are also shorter now, which means they will inevitably be closer. Super interesting to think/look at! See if you can pick out some of the famous mud races!"
If we could measure the rough slope, that could be a better measure of the actual closeness of the race, rather than using a percentage. Eliot used this technique last year to predict winning race times and was able to get within 0.3 seconds, which boded well.
So, we went back to Fort William split 1 and did the exact same test. You can see the plots in the animation below, all following the same pattern Eliot described.
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To remove outliers, we took out the top and bottom 20 from each year and measured the slope. Yet again, there wasn’t much of a correlation at all. If downhill racing is getting closer, the top section of Fort William isn’t where it’s happening.
For fun we tried some other tests. To see if riders fitness had improved, we used the same test on the tracks Eliot thought were the most physically demanding each year. Again, there didn’t seem to be a massive pattern but it did show how much rain affects the physicality of a track. Cairns 2014 had a slope of 0.6, compared to the others that fell between 0.2 and 0.4.
We then played around with Val di Sole’s results. We both thought it was the most technically difficult track of the circuit and it had been on the calendar a good few years, so if rider skill generally was increasing then surely races there would become closer too?
Trying it here did definitely show a trend but it’s hard to pin an entire theory on 8 data points. Some of these races were longer than others, two of them were World Championships, where a less capable field is racing, and riders will have naturally got more used to the track over the decade of racing here.
Yet again we were left empty handed with no real answers but this is the frustrating beauty of downhill. In baseball each team has 162 games in a roughly consistent pattern. Pulling stats and making theories with them is easy, not so much in downhill. Every race in downhill brings its own set of variables, challenges and curveballs. Is it harder now to get in the top ten than it was on the podium a few years ago? Maybe. Is downhill racing getting closer? Probably. Is every downhill race its own unique, exciting, unpredictable beast? Hell yeah! And that’s what makes it such a rad sport.
Think you've cracked the code? Create your own World Cup DH fantasy team now - racing begins April 27th in Slovenia.Support Eliot and his stats website here.
Secondly, the best athletes should get paid the most. Not based on gender. I know of no females that have picked up mountain biking because of any pro female rider. If anyone on pinkbike has evidence to differ than I would appreciate seeing that. Having high representation in a feild male or female doesn't increase or decrease representation on either side, if it does you should look deep inside and find out what you really want to do and who you are. Because there are many males in engineering doesn't make me want to be an engineer, same as because there are many females in nursing doesn't make me believe I couldn't be a nurse if I wanted to be one.
Its mountain biking by the way dont bring politics on to pinkbike and spout about your ideology. Gtfo. Know one cares. Go ride your f**king bike.
Know one cares - your funny
Cheers!
You are thinking about this statically and without considering the central tenet of economics: people respond to incentives.
For many women, society tells them they are supposed to like dresses, not getting dirty, shopping, dancing, etc. from very young ages. They are incentivized to conform by their parents and other adults, and often do. Thus, their probability of riding bikes is low. As this turns into a stochastic process dynamically, the issue is perpetuated by the fact that little girls' fathers are more likely to mountain bike than their mothers and the girls are more likely to see men riding bikes than women in their environment and on television. (Something very similar has occurred in advanced STEM fields.)
From a labor and market perspective, biases have driven a reduced supply of qualified labor (female shredders), and a reduced market. With incentives of medium-term benefits, firms could provide full factory support for every qualified woman, therefore increasing the perceived likelihood of enjoying mountain biking among women, and increasing both the market and qualified rider supply going forward. Because of this potential and the low supply of female shredders, one could argue that female shredders have higher market value than male ones.
I should also point out that Tahnee, Rachel, and a local women's riding group got my wife into mountain biking. She talks every day about how much she loved riding bikes as a kid, and how frustrating it was to have her parents and other influential adults disincentivize that because it was "something boys do." She hates that it wasn't until her mid-20s that she rekindled one of her first loves.
May have not worded it the best but my point is:
That paying men or women more will not influence more people mainly women to compete. The opportunity cost of being an athlete is extremely high. Injuries, stress, sponsors, and so on. Therefore, few people will want to compete. Add to the fact the cost associated with competing.
I dont believe their is any evidence to support that idea that more female pro riders will influence more women to enter the sport.
Second point: fewer women compete. It would be nice to see more in competitions. I dont think money will influence them. I might be ignorant but I would believe they have other interests. To claim they want to compete or aren't allowed to or are forced out of the sport is a different discussion.
Saying women 50% and men 50% of money is just silly because men pull all of the sponsor dollars. Am I denying their good riders, not at all. Do they deserve a larger cut. I dont know. Maybe. But men should be making more because they have more influence and views.
Pay, rightly or wrongly, is how we legitimize things. Girls seeing women treated more equally in MTB are far more likely to go into it as it is then a route that is open to them, not one where they are doomed to never be as good as their brothers and male friends. And once you open up that door, great things can happen. I know that the increase in diversity in my field has made the field far richer and more interesting than it was, even when I was an undergrad in art school.
WAKI: Quoting Milton Friedman. Damn! I worked for a guy for several years who always called the Chinese Government "the Commie Bastards". His family escaped the mainland in 1950. Go figure.
Those 4 ways to spend money and Mrs. T's "other people's money" are my favorite political statements. From my time working on Government funded projects I might add "I'm from the Program Office and I'm here to help."
JmtbM:
I work with an engineer who has finished top 50 in some major marathons. He decided to stick with engineering because it is his belief that he would never make top 10, which you need to make a living at that game. In the past I worked with an engineer who switched from "Trumpet performance" to EE because he realized he would never sit first chair in a major symphony and second chair will never pay as well as being an engineer. Some people are motivated by money, but passion also makes a difference.
For all the SJWs: I tried to convince my younger daughter to go into engineering. She could have done it, no questions. She is in grad school studying to be a shrink. Fixing broken kids is what she wants to do. I bet she makes a big pile of money when she goes into practice. The other daughter went into S&M (sales and marketing for those who don't know what engineers call those folks), and was pretty good at it.
Then she and her husband had a kid and since they could live of what he makes she is staying home until he is a little older. Then she wants to go back to school and become a "special education" teacher, which will never pay as well as S&M. She doesn't care, and her husband makes enough for them to live well.
And finally, those folks getting paid well enough to live by riding a bicycle are paid out of the marketing budget. The prize money is probably a pittance compared to the endorsements. See the Rhino's comment on his deference to the caffeinated sugar water (energy drink) companies.
So yeah, you cannot really fix all the holes by constantly mentioning statistics of Western vs Soviet countries as if West fully embraced capitalism and rejected Communism or at least Socialism dominating countries who do not succeed. As if the success of United States had nothing to do with unlimited access to vast natural resources, without any enemies to fight (as compared to Europe) as well as access to technology. And according to his vision of the world it was deregulation that led Western European countries to succession, as if it was not built on feudal system and conquest of less developed countries. And what did he have to say about China? China is a capitalist country disguised as a regime. Oh fk yes. Or maybe not. Or maybe all those capitalist or communist systems are disguised way how humans coexist.
TLDR.
As a former Catholic, and ex citizen of ex Eastern Block, I can smell Ideological BS from a mile
We don’t know
Now...is that intentional?(flatter tracks overall) Tighter times do generate more excitement...if the goal is to generate excitement and grow the viewership...Olympic contention??....which I would guess is the end goal of whoever benefits from the series(sponsors/organizations).
As much as we love to think it's about riders and/or the sport itself......it's about money. Always. follow. the. money.
Now...are those guys "pinkbikers"? maybe not per say...heehee
I firmly believe tracks need to be 2k vert minimum and DIFFICULT. Anyone that's ridden a trail like flying monkey in UT can confirm, if that kinda trail is raced, splits would be MUCH larger. Also would be nice to add like 4 more stops to keep the season going longer, and to showcase the outliers vs a bad run here or there. Not to mention all the mechanicals that plague the bikes...but that's a different convo.
Anyways...just sayin' don't underestimate the skills of quite a few Weekend Warriors ...especially in BC
Great article and I think it's very good to get some statistics presented on the start page from time to time. However, I have a few comments about your statistics. (Nerd talk on): Why not just display the gaps per race and the total gaps per year, as a box plot, and have the significance calculated. Depending on the distribution of the data, you have to proceed in different ways in order calculate the exact P-value (proof of hypothesis). Either at the end by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Tukey-HSD-test or Kruskal Wallis Test and Man-Whitney-U as post-hoc-test. By adding environmental parameters, it would also be possible to analyse everything multivariate, e.g. by non-metric-multidimensional-scaling and environmental fitting. The whole thing can then be displayed nicely as a graphic with vectors as drivers. Then you really get an answer to the question whether the gaps are getting smaller, and if so what is responsible for it (change to 29, rain, wind, track length, changed track to last year etc.) I'm sorry, but a statistical analysis without P-values is not transparent for me, and not particularly scientific. I think you can get more out of the data than qantile-quantile-norm plots and regression-lines. (Nerd talk off)
Maybe you would have to adjust the significance level for something like that. Normally it's p=0.05, maybe you'd have to find a lower level. And so we are again in the discussion that you have to think about what the definition of significance is.
I wrote the note fast last night without seeing the used dataset. That was only my consideration how I would go about it, also concerning representation.
During the night I tried to write a R-script myself. Unfortunately it already failed with the official UCI results to create the dataset. The calculation with the time format hh:mm:ss,000 has pissed me off too much.
Yeah extracting the data from the PDFs is extremely annoying haha.
I understand what you are saying, and that would be totally valid if we were trying to answer the question of did the times got tighter. But we’re not. We’re trying to answer if it is more difficult to get a top 10 or not.
If we did an analysis and we said that from one season to the next the times get tighter by 1.3 seconds with a p valid of 0.04. That doesn’t tell us anything about it getting more difficult. If the tracks are all really difficult and the we go and race on a flat road, the times will all be within .5 all the way back to 50th place. Like I said, 1 second at one track is not equal to one second at another track. I.e making up 2 seconds at the top of fort William is waaaaaaay harder than making up 2 seconds at the second split at Val do sole.
The other thing that A simple averageing doesn’t take into account is that you’re not measuring the same phenomenon. It would be like doing an analysis on Olympic sprint times and measuring 100m one year and 50m the next.
It’s just a bit more complicated than it looks at first glance .
I hate it when people use p values and statistical techniques to make an article look more scientific or credible when the assumptions they used for those test make the test invalid anyway. That’s why I didn’t do any of that.
Besides, I just wanted to spit a little nerd talks as I was totaly in writing R-scripts for my studies this afternoon.
Keep up the good work Eliot and James
One needs statistics and a relevant theory to interprete data.
I think the article is quite nice. But still I would like it better if they provided a link to the raw data so that any theory can be tested against it...
Then be a dick about it would just be the icing on the cake...
#RIPJAKEPHELPS
#PHELPER
#GOAT
I'm pretty amped about this season, however.
In your personal opinion (especially having spent so much time in places like Rotorua and Queenstown.) Whcih direction do you feel tracks should go in? More like GSD and World cup? or a different direction all together?
happy trails!
I think a lot of people like the World Cup, Grundy, Fundy, Rattatat lap. It think the thing that most riders want is places to separate themselves. Having things that other people can't do because there is a skill gap, instead of having things that you won't do because it is too risky.
Contrary to popular belief, taking a bunch of risk is not what makes you a great downhill racer.
I really appreciate the insight man. Hopefully I'll see you again in the gondola next year
Which is all that’s really changed. Bar bikes are better.
The problem with that 1 standard deviation from 1 season does not equal 1 standard deviation from another. For that matter, they aren't the same from one day to the next or one track to the next.
Even if the data is normal, which it is not, there are too many variables to do something simple like that
I think you're missing the point of the article.
Any P-values we give will be worthless because of the amount of variance inherent in the sport. The regression lines probably should have been removed anyway as, as you say, there are too few data points.
Also, using percentage on anything time based with variance is actually the wrong way to go about it. The first graph is supposed to show an overview. As I alluded to later in the article. % doesn't take into account what tracks were in the season, the difficulty of those tracks, the weather, etc etc. So the first graph is actually the least accurate if you are trying to draw conclusions from the article, which shouldn't be done in the first place.
"Also, it would probably be helpful to control for the weather, type of track, and soil variables."
This is what we did by looking at the first split at ft william.
Thanks for sharing, and ride on!
Hopefully this year won’t be about marketing wheel size crap and back to the racing!!!!!!
Looks like the conclusion of this article got the answer nail on head; using finish time data alone cannot prove the "is racing tighter" hypothesis either way as the variables are well....too various!
As you've said elsewhere Eliot, Context is king. With out context the times can be somewhat meaningless or misleading. From my perspective as I have geeked over my own far more pinpointed data sets from the races for a good few years; the only questions we can ask of the data are very context specific ones. Correct me if you disagree though. For example maybe what we could ask "over the past 10 seasons", on race tracks with a winning time less than 3 minutes, when wet for all participants has the time gap between 1st and 10th changed, positive or negative. Sadly due to the low number of races this may not yield much. But if we included qualifying, which since the points rule change, is very much a "race" then we have double the data-sets.
Due to the variety of factors affecting performance maybe all we can hope for is answers to very specific hypothesis?
Interesting in the comments section and in the main article that "fitness" is seen solely as the resistance to fatigue. When in practice it is better to view it as "ability to meet/exceed the demands of the task", which of course does include resistance to fatigue, but not solely. Viewed like that maybe sector analysis like the fort Bill sector 1 analysis can have better meaning.
The context being that Sector 1 in Fort Bill has a short sprint which needs pedal "power" then those rapid change of direction berms that require fast rate of eccentric development in the lower body, from there you hit hose horrible long berms that you can't arch per se. This is where smooth patient cornering and no braking is key, from then on it's fast and precise onto the board walk section before you get to the rocks. Here the speed you carried from those corners is critical and your aerodynamic abilities are paramount. (clothing) - viewed like that then maybe the data makes sense. We cannot separate technique from fitness....ever! The one performance factor that has changed the most in the 10 years FB sector 1 has existed is the bikes. But that is probably the least critical factor here - With Aerodynamics here the key is frontal area - and as we all follow the same kit/clothing and helmet fashion trends then this too is negated as a factor, finally "fitness" which in this section can make a difference due to rate of eccentric force development, mobility abilities to "tuck" and power applied to the cranks for the first sprint. Again the lack of change in results over 10 years maybe means that fitness overall hasn't progressed?
Back then to context is king? No matter how hard you squeeze and torture data when the factors leading to winning are so varied context is all that matters? Both micro and macro context.. i.e. individual intrinsic factors and macro race track/weather/gradient factors and invariable the interaction between both micro and macro.
Personally think percentage analysis does have it's place at the individual level. But that's a chat for another day.
Thanks again for the public geeking!
As you have used Linear regression, what is the Peasrsons Correlation coefficient ("r") for each of the results. Then the SD's of x and y.
Although the best fit line looks good and they trend down what is the calculated slope and intercept?
The top of Fort William to split 1 and the motorway is where the race is won and lost these days, the rest is predictable and there isn't really much to separate the riders any more since the rough portion of the track remains the same from day to day, run to run.
At Fort William I know for me (PB is only a 5.05 though), that the top and bottom berm and jump sections are worth up to 10s at race pace over a normal weekend ride, the middle is worth 1 to 2s max. Much up 2 turns up top and you lose 3 to 5s, dont pedal as hard as possible to the motorway and brake through hip replacement berm and you lose 4 to 5s! To me this is kinda pants for a Dh race, but it is what it is and its where the sport is now compared to 10 years ago where the woods was where it was won and lost at my level.
I agree the snow world cup isn't the type of riding that most of us can relate to. But maybe, just maybe, that's ok. I don't think either of us can relate to Joyride but I bet we both still think its f*cking rad. Let the sport grow.
I was just speaking specifically about the "smoothness" of World Cup tracks. They've not gotten smoother in the slightest. Due to repeat venues it's trending the opposite way. I've worked at every WC and World champs for the last 5 years, so I speak from first-hand experience.
Like Usain Bolt & 100m?