Dario DiGiulio's 2024 Predictions

Boutique Metal Bikes Will Continue to Grow in Popularity and Refinement

Not exactly a big reach on this one, and definitely tinted by some personal bias, but I do think this is a trend worth highlighting. After the initial steel days at the beginning of our sport, there have been a few phases of carbon and aluminum bikes representing the "high-end" of mountain biking. Though carbon has tended to win out in the long run, I think certain developments in CNC milling and additive manufacturing are giving aluminum and steel bikes a huge leg up in their repeatability, elegance, and economy of scale. Not to mention the fact that designers have fully wrapped their heads around the ways of the metal, achieving excellent stiffness and ride feel qualities when it's designed for.


While the boutique certainly draws attention and will grow within the market, it's the more budget-minded alloy bikes like the Stumpjumper Evo Alloy, Jeffsy Core 2, and many more that are leading the vanguard here. I only add that to mitigate some of the mysticism here, as in the end many bikes are quite stellar these days - regardless of frame material. Perhaps the braver prediction is saying we'll see some novel frame material emerge from the ether, but with sintered titanium lugs, foundry-cast aluminum, and even wood out there, that might not even be too far fetched.

Chassis Stiffness Add-Ons Become More Common

This isn't necessarily one that I'm rooting for - we already have enough things to mess with on our complicated toys - but I do think a lot of frame designs allow for some sort of bolt-in brace modifications. There are two recent takes on this that come to mind, from Commencal and Pole. Commencal's design was a simple thick or thin bolt-in seatstay brace, featured on the V5 Supreme DH bike. Pole took things a bit more internal, opting to tune stiffness via keyed axles in the frame's linkage. This is still fairly new as an aftermarket option, though it's worth noting that development mules have been utilizing adaptable stiffness for some time now, such as the case with this Norco prototype.

As to whether we need this level of finesse on the consumer end of things is up for debate, but I imagine there will be a few takes on the idea in the coming solar cycle. I'll propose something along these lines in a poll soon, as I'm curious what that narrow cross-section of the market thinks about the potential cost-benefit of adding this kind of adjustment to a frame.


Shimano Goes Wireless

There's plenty of evidence to support this, though none of it specifically points to 2024 being the year of actualization. I just figure the other big drivetrain manufacturer is approaching completion on what feels like a guaranteed product at this point. It's not as if they've gone years without any sort of update, it's just their 12-speed groups that have remain unchanged. With the release of the Cues system, Linkglide, and the e-bike only Di2 systems, the Japanese firm has remained plenty busy over the past few years. That said I do really want to see what they may or may not be working on.


Over the past decade or so, Shimano has proved just how patient they are with bringing product to market, namely in the release of their 12-speed group years after competitors had made a splash. I won't pretend to understand the granular economics behind that, but I'd assume there was some careful thought in addition to the slower pace of progress. As a century-old company, I think their relationship to short-term market changes is more measured; I'd be lying if I weren't chomping at the bit myself, but I'm about a quarter their age, so call it the folly of youth.

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