Ed Spratt's 2024 Predictions
In 2023, the cycling industry faced a difficult time, and the racing world felt a little strange as we adapted to the new overseers of the competitive side of the sport at Warner Brothers Discovery. Despite plenty of doom and gloom 2024 has the potential to be an excellent year for racing with World Cups, a Hardline series and Snowbike World Champs. As the past season's racing has shown, no matter what's happening in the industry, the world's best racers always deliver top-level performances.
![Two in a row for Goldstone here in MSA.]()
Elite Men's World Cup downhill reached new levels of competition in 2023 as the eight races produced seven unique winners and five first-timers. Despite facing a tricky season that included mid-season surgery, one rider proved themselves worthy of being at the top of the sport and laid the groundwork to become one of the greats.
That rider is of course Jackson Goldstone, who was able to handle immense pressure and speculation in his debut year of elite racing. He spent the season winning two races, finishing the season with an overall second-place position and rivalled both Loic Bruni and Loris Vergier across the season for consistency. Looking deeper into the stats Jackson perhaps had the most impressive season of all the elite male riders as he was fastest through 12 of the 40 World Cup race sectors in finals and despite some significant setbacks and mid-season surgery, he managed to maintain his position at the sharp end of the results sheet.
While the current era of World Cup racing can be pretty unpredictable I believe that Jackson Goldstone will wrap the 2024 season in Mont-Sainte-Anne as the overall series winner.
![During 2023 EDR World Cup Val di Fassa Italy]()
As we reach peak silly season one of the most persistent rumours is that there may be a potential move to abandon traditional Enduro World Cup racing and shift the focus to E-Enduro in 2025. Although I'm sceptical about the rumoured changes, it seems like the sport may be headed in that direction in the not-so-distant future, especially because no matter what happens eMTB racing persists despite lacklustre interest.
One of the biggest challenges to making e-enduro racing and E-EDR World Cups the big show is the lack of people who seem excited outside the industry. According to our own page views, the E-EDR rounds we covered this year had significantly lower viewership when compared to EDR rounds. Compared to traditional racing, the Pietra Ligure race attracted only 16.9% of the views, Leogang 7.75%, and Val Di Fassa 8.27%. The low participation of riders in these races is also a problem, with women's racing often having single-digit participants and men's racing tending to have only in the mid to low 30s.
If the rumours suggesting E-EDR is the future of enduro racing are true, then I predict that in 2024, attempts will be made to increase its presence as a top-level form of racing. Exactly how this could be done will require a lot of work from the organiser, but first, there needs to be more excitement generated about each round. This problem is not unique to E-EDR - it has also started to affect standard Enduro World Cups.
The introduction of an E-Enduro World Championships in 2024 placing it alongside the established forms of racing such as DH, XC could help. However, it didn't do a lot for the popularity of eMTB XC racing.
![Peter Sagan is giving this whole XC thing a real go this week.]()
While it would be great to see Peter Sagan make it to next summer's Olympic XC race and go head-to-head with the likes of Nino Schurter and Tom Pidcock, he faces the challenging task of accumulating enough points to qualify Slovakia for the event.
Peter Sagan and other male riders from Slovakia have a monumental task ahead of them of collecting around 1,150 UCI ranking points before the cutoff of May 26th next year. Currently, the nation sits 38th in the rankings with it needing to reach 19th to qualify for a single rider entry for the Olympic XC race. It will require a packed early season schedule to get close to 19th place in the rankings as there are only 250 points on the line for a World Cup win, 100 at a Hors class event, and 60 for a class 1 race.
Another rider whose entry hangs in the balance is Mathieu Van Der Poel. The Netherlands currently sits 25th in the rankings, but it is believed that because of Tom Schelleken's fifth place at the U23 World Champs, the nation may have a place for one rider in the Olympic games. If a place is secured it will be up to the national cycling federation to decide whether Mathieu Van Der Poel deserves the spot on the team, given that he has not finished an XC race since 2021. This is of course if he even wants to attend the race.
My prediction is that Peter Sagan sadly won't be able to close the points gap in time for the cutoff and Mathieu Van Der Poel will continue his focus on road events and attend the 2024 Tour De France instead of setting his sights on his past dream of an Olympic XC gold medal.
In a left-field move by the UCI, we are getting a Snowbike World Championships in February next year. Although it is an unusual decision to offer the chance of a rainbow jersey without any major series leading up to it, I think it could be an exciting competition to watch during the off-season. However, this depends on exactly what the competition is.
While the DH World Cup is an incredible spectacle, watching some of the best riders compete in a downhill race on snow could be a close rival, especially in the quieter months of the year. The list of racers for next year's World Champs has not been released yet, but if there are a few big names and the event is televised, it could be a fun way to pass a weekend. Even if it ends up a confusing mess, the organisational carnage will be enjoyable from the sidelines.
Jackson Goldstone Wins the 2024 DH World Cup Overall
Elite Men's World Cup downhill reached new levels of competition in 2023 as the eight races produced seven unique winners and five first-timers. Despite facing a tricky season that included mid-season surgery, one rider proved themselves worthy of being at the top of the sport and laid the groundwork to become one of the greats.
That rider is of course Jackson Goldstone, who was able to handle immense pressure and speculation in his debut year of elite racing. He spent the season winning two races, finishing the season with an overall second-place position and rivalled both Loic Bruni and Loris Vergier across the season for consistency. Looking deeper into the stats Jackson perhaps had the most impressive season of all the elite male riders as he was fastest through 12 of the 40 World Cup race sectors in finals and despite some significant setbacks and mid-season surgery, he managed to maintain his position at the sharp end of the results sheet.
While the current era of World Cup racing can be pretty unpredictable I believe that Jackson Goldstone will wrap the 2024 season in Mont-Sainte-Anne as the overall series winner.
A Big Push for E-Enduro Racing
As we reach peak silly season one of the most persistent rumours is that there may be a potential move to abandon traditional Enduro World Cup racing and shift the focus to E-Enduro in 2025. Although I'm sceptical about the rumoured changes, it seems like the sport may be headed in that direction in the not-so-distant future, especially because no matter what happens eMTB racing persists despite lacklustre interest.
One of the biggest challenges to making e-enduro racing and E-EDR World Cups the big show is the lack of people who seem excited outside the industry. According to our own page views, the E-EDR rounds we covered this year had significantly lower viewership when compared to EDR rounds. Compared to traditional racing, the Pietra Ligure race attracted only 16.9% of the views, Leogang 7.75%, and Val Di Fassa 8.27%. The low participation of riders in these races is also a problem, with women's racing often having single-digit participants and men's racing tending to have only in the mid to low 30s.
If the rumours suggesting E-EDR is the future of enduro racing are true, then I predict that in 2024, attempts will be made to increase its presence as a top-level form of racing. Exactly how this could be done will require a lot of work from the organiser, but first, there needs to be more excitement generated about each round. This problem is not unique to E-EDR - it has also started to affect standard Enduro World Cups.
The introduction of an E-Enduro World Championships in 2024 placing it alongside the established forms of racing such as DH, XC could help. However, it didn't do a lot for the popularity of eMTB XC racing.
Peter Sagan & Mathieu Van Der Poel Won't Make it to the Olympic XC Race
While it would be great to see Peter Sagan make it to next summer's Olympic XC race and go head-to-head with the likes of Nino Schurter and Tom Pidcock, he faces the challenging task of accumulating enough points to qualify Slovakia for the event.
Peter Sagan and other male riders from Slovakia have a monumental task ahead of them of collecting around 1,150 UCI ranking points before the cutoff of May 26th next year. Currently, the nation sits 38th in the rankings with it needing to reach 19th to qualify for a single rider entry for the Olympic XC race. It will require a packed early season schedule to get close to 19th place in the rankings as there are only 250 points on the line for a World Cup win, 100 at a Hors class event, and 60 for a class 1 race.
Another rider whose entry hangs in the balance is Mathieu Van Der Poel. The Netherlands currently sits 25th in the rankings, but it is believed that because of Tom Schelleken's fifth place at the U23 World Champs, the nation may have a place for one rider in the Olympic games. If a place is secured it will be up to the national cycling federation to decide whether Mathieu Van Der Poel deserves the spot on the team, given that he has not finished an XC race since 2021. This is of course if he even wants to attend the race.
My prediction is that Peter Sagan sadly won't be able to close the points gap in time for the cutoff and Mathieu Van Der Poel will continue his focus on road events and attend the 2024 Tour De France instead of setting his sights on his past dream of an Olympic XC gold medal.
The Snowbike World Championships Could be a Disaster but it Will at Least Be Fun to Watch
In a left-field move by the UCI, we are getting a Snowbike World Championships in February next year. Although it is an unusual decision to offer the chance of a rainbow jersey without any major series leading up to it, I think it could be an exciting competition to watch during the off-season. However, this depends on exactly what the competition is.
While the DH World Cup is an incredible spectacle, watching some of the best riders compete in a downhill race on snow could be a close rival, especially in the quieter months of the year. The list of racers for next year's World Champs has not been released yet, but if there are a few big names and the event is televised, it could be a fun way to pass a weekend. Even if it ends up a confusing mess, the organisational carnage will be enjoyable from the sidelines.
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The same is true for wheelbarrow racing, unicycle hockey and competitive worm charming. I’m holding out hope that the latter will become the big show before e-enduro does.
It's inevitable e Enduro will surpass regular Enduro in popularity, dealing with the anxiety with cynicism and denial is understandable but it's like you are fighting for 26" wheels.
Without any sarcasm, I would rank my interest in watching Competitive Worm Charming above E-bike racing.
Mostly because I already made up cardboard signs supporting EverythingMillhouse's Mum in her vision quest to crack the top 6th.
I find preconception that somehow it’s easier than a normal bike strange.
You pretty much end up riding it twice as fast than normal and I’d say perhaps even harder than a normal bike
Im not an e-bike proponent in any way, so I do hope you'll read this with an open mind, and I searched hard for the sarcasm font to make my intentions perfectly clear
You have heard of "hard enduro" right?
hardenduroraces.com/about-hard-enduro
and "enduro" in general might have come from motorcycle "enduro" racing, which does in fact involve using motorcycles with, you guessed it, a motor.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enduro
Le mans as well, known as an endurance event, so there is a long standing tradition of "endurance events" being completed with motors.
Good luck out there my friend
to your comment, ill paraphrase, if it has a motor it cant be an endurance event....to which I presented several instances where we do in fact race things with motors in "endurance events" So we are good on that yeah?
your next point, that enduro was the single worst discipline to race e-bike, ill contend that its DH, or pump track, or dirt jumping, you get it, theres prolly some dumber disciplines for an ebike.
Now, changing the format to something similar to moto hard enduro, or LeMans would make sense, make the whole thing a timed event, push the distances/elevation past what any current ebike is capable of so theres strategy involved, make it about both the bike and rider so you have a platform for companies to push inovation, and athletes from different disciplines being competitive. Have sections that require pedalling to be able to just finish the race, long steep climbs so that it might even require walking to get up. Have laps, so it makes spectating possible, jumps near grandstand areas, hard efforts and areas of passing to spice it up.
Again, Im not into ebikes, theyre not my thing, but ill watch people race worms cause I love the competition of it.
I do think that even with the current enduro format, its prolly the only discipline that makes sense to race ebikes in. Remember when they tried to race em on a dirt bike track, now that was bit of a dumpster fire...
Have to be run on a dedicated moto uphill, any MTB track would be taken out permanently.
LIkely none of us know exactly whats going to hit the mark, so I'm all for trying different things. Im not gonna discount e-bike racing, cause maybe its great with the right format, terrain, riders, equipment etc.
Im always surprised by the people who immediately criticize something as stupid, or dumb or any other silly comment when we literally race high powered swamp buggies, and monster trucks, and drones via computer.
In all honesty, some form of e-bike enduro racing (whatever the hell format you want to make of it) is likely to be incredibly popular if we can sort out the right ingredients. It doesnt have to be like something else, and thats likely not the right idea for it anyway.
If we listen to the naysayers, nothing will ever get done, and that would be a shame, cause racing always drives innovation for better, faster, lighter
I used to race moto, and enduro, and I could never get into watching a whole race, thats a long time sitting on my ass in front of a tv. I do enjoy watching highlights of hard enduro, or any motorized endurance event (LeMans, Baja, Dakar, seven days, etc)
Looking forward to spending some more time on the trails together.
However I did see some pros shuttling during practice which is beyond insane and embarrassing...
I dunno about where you live, but at one of my local parks which doesn't have a shuttle - few ebikers are above 50 at all, and the ebikers f*cking shred. They also have regular bikes, but enjoy days on the Eebs as well.
If yout think ebikes are made for "unfit" people then hey, huge middle finger from @ikubica to all you adaptive riders... too bad for your injuries your cripples - you should stop riding your ebike adaptive b/c ikubica said so. Huge middle finger to every - single - pro - rider...who use them to train. A massive middle finger to everyone that's wrecked a knee or hip riding and simply can't pull themselves uphill without severe pain any more - a category I'm (sadly) in for now til I can fully heal. Wanna ride with your dad? Ikubica is fine with that b/c he's old.
This type of sloppy, holier-than-thou, street-corner preaching doesn't say anything about ebikes - it's just a flashing sign about your lack of perspective. Meanwhile you burn up electricity, consume goods, probably drive or even fly to go biking (or vacation), maybe use bike park lifts, and burn the natural resource candle like anyone else. If its not core to ride an ebike, then don't ever drive, get on a plane, take a bus or boat or put your bike on one because that's not core...that's cheating. If you can't ride to it - you're not "die hard".
E whatever 2023: physical effort is for loosers, so you are cool and lazy, but it soooo fun: here, take a battery for your bike.
That, uh, seems like a pretty significant obstacle?
I mean this genuinely though: what is the appeal of e-enduro? To me the whole point of enduro is that it's kind of the all-around bike competition – you need DH-like skills AND XC-like endurance. But on ebikes you can mostly take away the endurance part, so...isn't it then basically just a multi-stage DH race?
(And sure, a multi-stage DH race would be kind of cool, I just don't see how it's enduro or what the point of ebikes is for that. Might as well just use a lift or shuttles so the riders can use DH bikes for each run).
"Snowbiking" is bullshit.
E-bike racing? Snowbiking? Sure, let's let Enduro, the sport (aside from XC) the vast majority of riders most align with, completely fall to the wayside. Let's focus on bullshit with zero ridership...
In addition, most e bikes are sold to people with low interest in (competitive) sport. Most of them also dont know Steve Peat and Fabien Barel for example. So why should they watch?
Im also shure, less then 5% of ebike riders even know of the format
Such as:
- Will Vali Holl repeat her 2023 success if Balanche, Nicole, and Atherton race full-time, and Hoffmann continues her progress as a truly elite rider?
- Will any of the 2023 Juniors graduating to Elite in 2024 win a race (or place in the top 10 overall in the season standings)?
- Which new Juniors will have an immediate impact in the Juniors standings?
- Will they do away with the Semi-finals?
The season finished in October, and it's all gone quiet - yet the road racing media carry on during the off season. Is it any wonder they get all the sponsorship. Lidl sponsor the Trek road teams, yet none of the money has gone to the Trek MTB teams.......I wonder why?
Where is all the transfer gossip/ rumours, review of the season, etc
Seems pointless to me.
As a result we can't appreciate consistency on placements by the riders and, at the end of the season, the winner of the overall will just be the luckiest rider. Or a mathematical winner.
www.vojomag.com/interview-exclusive-peter-sagan-jai-commence-par-le-vtt-je-veux-finir-par-le-vtt
I think E-bike racing could work but in a different format : For example stages similar to XC races but much burlier (DH descents with super tough uphills) and maybe not all riders at once but like time trial.
One could catch up but the main opponent would remain the track.
These venues would need to be near abandonned quarries or things like that to have enough ups and downs in a small enough area to make it better to film.
Basically, go down and up several lines of a bikepark in one single race.
Signed,
A eMTB avid rider and lover and hater or E racing.
What coverage? There was no E-EDR coverage! Viewership was low because you didn’t even cover E-EDR! The most coverage I saw the whole season was 2 minutes of highlights video at the very end of a 30 minute highlights video. 28 minutes of EDR and 2 minutes of E-EDR! You treated them like the red headed step children of the sport! You can’t base your opinions of the sport on the pinkbike comments section where such a small percentage of the cycling population tent to be the loudest whiners complaining about everything in the world that offends them. E-bike racing is hard, it is exciting to watch, and it’s extremely fun! And it just so happens that e-bikes are selling much much faster than any other bikes! Stop whining about them and start giving them the coverage they deserve!